United StatesUS 12-Month BTF Auction climbed to 2.28% in January 2025
US 12-Month BTF Auction climbed to 2.28% in January 2025, released February 2025, up 0.05% from December's 2.22% reading.
Latest Release
Sigmacast Track Record
Sigmacast track record will appear here once this indicator has been released 3+ times since Sigmanomics began tracking.
Method: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.50 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.45 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.40 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.35 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | CRYPTO | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
12-Month BTF Auction (United States) was reported at 2.28% in January 2025. The reading rose from the previous value of 2.22%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with S&P 500 (Bullish Stocks). A secondary relationship exists with EUR/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish EUR).
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Fed Schmid Speech (Nov 10) and Fed Bowman Speech (Nov 10).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update February 2025.
12-Month BTF Auction - US
About 12-Month BTF Auction — United States
DEFINITION
The 12-Month BTF Auction is a financial indicator that measures the interest rates at which the French government borrows money from investors through the issuance of short-term securities known as Bonnes Trésor à taux fixe (BTFs). This auction is held every month and provides insight into the current market demand for French government debt and the overall health of the economy. It is closely monitored by investors and financial institutions as it can impact interest rates and the cost of borrowing for both the government and private sector.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT'S NEXT
This indicator correlates most strongly with S&P 500 (Bullish Stocks, r=0.50) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Monday, November 9, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15:00 | US | Wholesale Inventories MoM | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.65 | Low |
| 15:00 | US | Wholesale Sales MoM | 2.8 | 2 | 1.1 | 1.95 | Low |
| 16:00 | US | Consumer Inflation Expectation | 3.9 | 3.9 | 3.8 | 3.85 | Low |
| 16:30 | US | 3-Month Bill Auction | 4.06 | 4.04 | 4.009 | 4.03 | Low |
| Tuesday, November 10, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 11:00 | US | NFIB Business Optimism Index | 97.8 | 97.9 | 97.7 | 98.30 | Low |
| 13:30 | US | CPI s.a | 337.48 | 336.3 | 337 | 337.17 | High |
| 13:30 | US | Inflation Rate MoM | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.33 | High |
| 13:30 | US | Core Inflation Rate MoM | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.23 | High |
| 13:30 | US | CPI | 337.51 | 336.94 | 337.02 | 337.13 | High |
| 13:55 | US | Redbook YoY | 10.1 | 10.4 | 9.3 | 9.70 | Low |
| 21:30 | US | API Crude Oil Stock Change | -5.267 | -1 | 3.79 | Medium | |
| Wednesday, November 11, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 19:00 | US | Budget Balance | -27 | -298 | -339.85 | Medium | |