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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS U-6 Unemployment Rate fell to 7.6% in September 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased October 2026
US U-6 Unemployment Rate fell to 7.6% in September 2026, released October 2026, down 0.1% from August's 7.7% reading. The reading matched expectations.
Latest Release
7.600000
Actual
7.700000
Consensus
7.700000
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.14 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Oct 2026
Predicted: 7.63
Actual: 7.6
Error: +0.03
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| USD/CAD | ▼ Inverse | −0.29 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
U-6 Unemployment Rate (United States) was reported at 7.6% in October 2026. This missed the market consensus of 7.7% by 0.1%. The reading fell from the previous value of 7.7%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 7.94%, ranging from 7.6% to 8.4% across 9 releases. This is classified as a high-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 7.73%, down from the prior three at 7.97%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.22%) is higher than the prior year (σ 0.17%).
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.14%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for November 6, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Oct 9) and CFTC S&P 500 speculative net positions (Oct 9).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
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U-6 Unemployment Rate - US
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About U-6 Unemployment Rate — United States
DEFINITION
The U-6 Unemployment Rate is a comprehensive measure of unemployment that includes not only those actively seeking employment, but also those who are marginally attached to the labor force and those who are working part-time for economic reasons. This indicator provides a more complete picture of the overall employment situation and can be used to assess the health of the labor market.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Sep 2026): actual 7.6 %, consensus 7.7 %. Prior reading (Aug 2026): 7.7 %. Before that (Jul 2026): 7.9 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection.
Σ
EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Thursday, October 8, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:30 | US | Continuing Jobless Claims | 1716 | 1699 | 1710 | 1713.00 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Jobless Claims 4-Week Average | 198 | 200.5 | 198 | 198.00 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Initial Jobless Claims | 197 | 199 | 200 | 198.50 | High |
| 14:00 | US | Wholesale Inventories MoM | 0.5 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.60 | Low |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change | 85 | 64 | 79 | 82.00 | Low |
| 15:15 | US | Atlanta Fed GDPNow | 3.6 | 3.7 | 3.7 | 3.65 | Medium |
| Friday, October 9, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 14:00 | US | Michigan Consumer Sentiment | 48.1 | 47.6 | 47.60 | High | |
| 14:00 | US | Michigan 5 Year Inflation Expectations | 3.4 | 3.5 | 3.50 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | Michigan Consumer Expectations | 46.3 | 45.9 | 45.90 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | Michigan Current Conditions | 50.9 | 50.5 | 50.50 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | Michigan 1 Year Inflation Expectations | 4.6 | 4.7 | 4.70 | Low | |
| Monday, October 12, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 18:00 | US | Budget Balance | -167 | 210 | 217.90 | Medium | |
| Tuesday, October 13, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 10:00 | US | NFIB Business Optimism Index | 98.7 | 96 | 96.80 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | Existing Home Sales MoM | -2 | -0.3 | -0.30 | High | |
| 14:00 | US | Existing Home Sales | 3.98 | 3.97 | 3.97 | High | |
| 15:30 | US | 3-Month Bill Auction | 4.05 | 4.009 | 4.01 | Low | |
| 18:00 | US | Budget Balance | -167 | 210 | 217.90 | Medium | |