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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS U-6 Unemployment Rate held to 7.9% in July 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased August 2026
US U-6 Unemployment Rate held to 7.9% in July 2026, released August 2026. The reading matched expectations.
Latest Release
7.900000
Actual
7.900000
Consensus
7.900000
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.17 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Aug 2026
Predicted: 7.8
Actual: 7.9
Error: -0.1
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GOOGL | ▲ Direct | +0.52 | STOCKS | Moves with | → View |
| USD/CHF | ▼ Inverse | −0.42 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.40 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| NZD/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.38 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| GBP/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.29 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
U-6 Unemployment Rate (United States) was reported at 7.9% in August 2026. This matched the market consensus of 7.9% exactly. The reading was unchanged from the previous release. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through August 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 8.04%, ranging from 7.9% to 8.4% across 8 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 7.97%, down from the prior three at 8.1%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.16%) is higher than the prior year (σ 0.12%). In August readings over the past 3 years, U-6 Unemployment Rate has averaged 7.87%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with GOOGL (Bullish GOOGL). A secondary relationship exists with USD/CHF, negatively correlated (Bearish USD). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.17%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for September 4, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change (Aug 19) and EIA Gasoline Stocks Change (Aug 19).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update August 2026.
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U-6 Unemployment Rate - US
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About U-6 Unemployment Rate — United States
DEFINITION
The U-6 Unemployment Rate is a comprehensive measure of unemployment that includes not only those actively seeking employment, but also those who are marginally attached to the labor force and those who are working part-time for economic reasons. This indicator provides a more complete picture of the overall employment situation and can be used to assess the health of the labor market.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jul 2026): actual 7.9 %, consensus 7.9 %. Prior reading (Jun 2026): 7.9 %. Before that (May 2026): 8.1 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with GOOGL (Bullish GOOGL, r=0.52) — a useful reference for stocks-focused traders.
Σ
EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Tuesday, August 18, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:30 | US | Housing Starts MoM | -12.4 | 19.7 | -4.7 | -6.45 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Import Prices YoY | 5.9 | 7.1 | 7.2 | 6.55 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Import Prices MoM | -0.4 | -0.3 | 0.1 | -0.15 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Export Prices MoM | -1.3 | -0.7 | 0.2 | -0.55 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Housing Starts | 1.239 | 1.415 | 1.35 | 1.34 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Export Prices YoY | 8.2 | 10.2 | 9.6 | 8.90 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Building Permits MoM | 5 | -2.6 | 1.2 | 3.47 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Building Permits | 1.443 | 1.374 | 1.37 | 1.40 | High |
| 13:15 | US | Manufacturing Production YoY | 1.2 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.35 | Low |
| 13:15 | US | Capacity Utilization | 76.3 | 76.2 | 76.3 | 76.30 | Low |
| 13:15 | US | Manufacturing Production MoM | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.20 | Low |
| 13:15 | US | Industrial Production YoY | 1.1 | 1.29 | 1 | 1.05 | Low |
| 13:15 | US | Industrial Production MoM | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.25 | Medium |
| 14:00 | US | Pending Home Sales MoM | -2.3 | -4.8 | 0.3 | -1.00 | Medium |
| 14:00 | US | Pending Home Sales YoY | -2.2 | -0.3 | 1.4 | -0.40 | Medium |
| 14:20 | US | Atlanta Fed GDPNow | 4 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.30 | Medium |
| Wednesday, August 19, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 14:30 | US | EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change | 17.422 | -0.6 | -3.08 | Medium | |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Gasoline Stocks Change | -0.968 | -1.2 | -0.92 | Medium | |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Distillate Stocks Change | -0.01 | -0.9 | -0.16 | Low | |
| Thursday, August 20, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Continuing Jobless Claims | 1777 | 1790 | 1786.00 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index | 41.4 | 25 | 15.80 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Initial Jobless Claims | 209 | 210 | 209.50 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Jobless Claims 4-Week Average | 199 | 200 | 199.75 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | Leading Index MoM | -0.2 | 0.1 | 0.10 | Medium | |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change | 36 | 15 | 18.00 | Low | |