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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS U-6 Unemployment Rate fell to 7.9% in June 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased July 2026
US U-6 Unemployment Rate fell to 7.9% in June 2026, released July 2026, down 0.2% from May's 8.1% reading. The reading matched expectations.
Latest Release
7.900000
Actual
8.100000
Consensus
8.100000
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.2 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jul 2026
Predicted: 8
Actual: 7.9
Error: +0.1
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GOOGL | ▲ Direct | +0.63 | STOCKS | Moves with | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.61 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▼ Inverse | −0.59 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| USD/CHF | ▼ Inverse | −0.58 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| GBP/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.39 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
U-6 Unemployment Rate (United States) was reported at 7.9% in July 2026. This missed the market consensus of 8.1% by 0.2%. The reading fell from the previous value of 8.1%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through July 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 8.04%, ranging from 7.9% to 8.4% across 8 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 7.97%, down from the prior three at 8.13%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.16%) is higher than the prior year (σ 0.11%).
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with GOOGL (Bullish GOOGL). A secondary relationship exists with EUR/USD, positively correlated (Bullish EUR). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.2%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Import Prices MoM (Jul 17) and Building Permits (Jul 17).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
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U-6 Unemployment Rate - US
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About U-6 Unemployment Rate — United States
DEFINITION
The U-6 Unemployment Rate is a comprehensive measure of unemployment that includes not only those actively seeking employment, but also those who are marginally attached to the labor force and those who are working part-time for economic reasons. This indicator provides a more complete picture of the overall employment situation and can be used to assess the health of the labor market.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jun 2026): actual 7.9 %, consensus 8.1 %. Prior reading (May 2026): 8.1 %. Before that (Apr 2026): 8.2 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with GOOGL (Bullish GOOGL, r=0.63) — a useful reference for stocks-focused traders.
Σ
EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Friday, July 17, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:30 | US | Import Prices YoY | 6.7 | 5.4 | 5.40 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Housing Starts | 1.177 | 1.2 | 1.20 | High | |
| 13:15 | US | Industrial Production YoY | 1.7 | 1.5 | 1.50 | Low | |
| 13:15 | US | Manufacturing Production YoY | 1.4 | 1 | 1.00 | Low | |
| 13:15 | US | Capacity Utilization | 76.2 | 76.7 | 76.70 | Low | |