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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS U-6 Unemployment Rate fell to 8.1% in May 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased June 2026
US U-6 Unemployment Rate fell to 8.1% in May 2026, released June 2026, down 0.1% from April's 8.2% reading. The reading matched expectations.
Latest Release
8.100000
Actual
8.300000
Consensus
8.200000
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.2 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jun 2026
Predicted: 8.3
Actual: 8.1
Error: +0.2
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD/CHF | ▼ Inverse | −0.70 | FOREX | Bearish USD | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.68 | FOREX | Bullish EUR | → View |
| GOOGL | ▲ Direct | +0.62 | STOCKS | Bullish GOOGL | → View |
| GBP/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.57 | FOREX | Bullish GBP | → View |
| USD/CAD | ▼ Inverse | −0.46 | FOREX | Bearish USD | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
U-6 Unemployment Rate (United States) was reported at 7.9% in July 2026. This missed the market consensus of 8.1% by 0.2%. The reading fell from the previous value of 8.1%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through June 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 8.06%, ranging from 7.9% to 8.4% across 7 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 8%, down from the prior three at 8.17%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.16%) is comparable than the prior year (σ 0.15%). In June readings over the past 3 years, U-6 Unemployment Rate has averaged 7.77%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with USD/CHF (Bearish USD). A secondary relationship exists with EUR/USD, positively correlated (Bullish EUR). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.2%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include ISM Services PMI (Jul 6) and ISM Non-Manufacturing Employment (Jul 6).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update June 2026.
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U-6 Unemployment Rate - US
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About U-6 Unemployment Rate — United States
DEFINITION
The U-6 Unemployment Rate is a comprehensive measure of unemployment that includes not only those actively seeking employment, but also those who are marginally attached to the labor force and those who are working part-time for economic reasons. This indicator provides a more complete picture of the overall employment situation and can be used to assess the health of the labor market.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jun 2026): actual 7.9 %, consensus 8.1 %. Prior reading (May 2026): 8.1 %. Before that (Apr 2026): 8.2 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with USD/CHF (Bearish USD, r=-0.70) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
Σ
EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Monday, July 6, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14:00 | US | ISM Services PMI | 54.5 | 51.5 | 51.00 | High | |
| Tuesday, July 7, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 15:00 | US | Consumer Inflation Expectation | 3.5 | 3.7 | 3.55 | Low | |