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Data from U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS Core PCE Prices QoQ 2 climbed to 3.5% in Q3 2020
U.S. Bureau of Economic AnalysisMonthlyReleased November 2020
US Core PCE Prices QoQ 2 climbed to 3.5% in Q3 2020, released November 2020, up 4.3% from June's -0.8% reading. The reading matched the 3.5% consensus. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 1.43%. Core PCE Prices QoQ 2 is now the highest in 79 months.
Latest Release
3.5
Actual
3.5
Consensus
-0.8
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.1 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Nov 2020
Predicted: 3.55
Actual: 3.5
Error: +0.05
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.50 | INDEX | Bullish Stocks | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.45 | FOREX | Bearish EUR | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.40 | FOREX | Bullish USD | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.35 | COMMODITIES | Bearish Gold | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | CRYPTO | Watch | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Core PCE Prices QoQ 2 (United States) was reported at 3.5% in November 2020. This matched the market consensus of 3.5% exactly. The reading rose from the previous value of -0.8%. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 1.37%, down from the prior three at 1.6%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with S&P 500 (Bullish Stocks). A secondary relationship exists with EUR/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish EUR). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.1%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Jun 15) and Industrial Production MoM (Jun 15).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update November 2020.
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Core PCE Prices QoQ 2 - US
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About Core PCE Prices QoQ 2 — United States
DEFINITION
Core PCE Prices QoQ 2 is a financial indicator that measures the quarterly change in the prices of goods and services, excluding volatile food and energy prices. It is considered a key measure of inflation and is closely monitored by economists and policymakers. This indicator provides valuable insights into the overall health of the economy and helps inform decisions related to monetary policy and consumer spending.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Inflation prints feed directly into central-bank policy expectations and real-yield calculations, and are among the most rate-sensitive releases on the calendar. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jul 2020): actual 3.5 %, consensus 3.5 %. Prior reading (Apr 2020): -1 %. Before that (Jan 2020): 1.6 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with S&P 500 (Bullish Stocks, r=0.50) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.