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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS Redbook MoM climbed to -17.2% in March 2021
FMPMonthlyReleased April 2021
US Redbook MoM climbed to -17.2% in March 2021, released April 2021, up 0.2% from February's -17.4% reading.
Latest Release
-17.200000
Actual
—
Consensus
-17.400000
Previous
Sigmacast Track Record
Sigmacast track record will appear here once this indicator has been released 3+ times since Sigmanomics began tracking.
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.50 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.45 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.40 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.35 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | CRYPTO | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Redbook MoM (United States) was reported at -17.2% in April 2021. The reading rose from the previous value of -17.4%.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged -17.4%, down from the prior three at -12.1%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with S&P 500 (Bullish Stocks). A secondary relationship exists with EUR/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish EUR).
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Existing Home Sales MoM (Aug 11) and Existing Home Sales (Aug 11).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update April 2021.
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Redbook MoM - US
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About Redbook MoM — United States
DEFINITION
Redbook MoM is a monthly financial indicator that measures the change in retail sales from the previous month. It is based on a survey of a sample of retail stores, providing valuable insights into consumer spending trends and overall economic activity. This indicator is widely used by investors, economists, and policymakers to gauge the health of the retail sector and make informed decisions. A positive Redbook MoM indicates an increase in retail sales, while a negative reading suggests a decline.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Apr 2021): actual -17.2 %. Prior reading (Mar 2021): -17.4 %. Before that (Mar 2021): -17.6 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with S&P 500 (Bullish Stocks, r=0.50) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Friday, August 7, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:30 | US | Participation Rate | 61.4 | 61.5 | 61.6 | 61.50 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | U-6 Unemployment Rate | 7.9 | 7.9 | 7.9 | 7.90 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Non Farm Payrolls | -23 | 20 | 80 | 28.50 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Average Hourly Earnings YoY | 3.2 | 3.4 | 3.5 | 3.35 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Unemployment Rate | 4.1 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 4.15 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Average Weekly Hours | 34.3 | 34.3 | 34.3 | 34.30 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Manufacturing Payrolls | 5 | 11 | 4 | 4.50 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Government Payrolls | -53 | -10 | 10 | -21.50 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Nonfarm Payrolls Private | 30 | 30 | 78 | 54.00 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Average Hourly Earnings MoM | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.20 | Medium |
| 15:00 | US | Consumer Inflation Expectation | 3.6 | 3.7 | 3.8 | 3.70 | Low |
| 17:00 | US | Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count | 454 | 451 | 452 | 453.00 | Low |
| 19:00 | US | Consumer Credit Change | 14.17 | -1.08 | 10.5 | 12.34 | Low |
| Tuesday, August 11, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 10:00 | US | NFIB Business Optimism Index | 97.4 | 97.1 | 97.00 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | Existing Home Sales MoM | -2.4 | -0.7 | -1.65 | Medium | |
| 14:00 | US | Existing Home Sales | 4.09 | 4.07 | 4.05 | High | |
| Wednesday, August 12, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Core Inflation Rate MoM | 0 | 0.2 | 0.25 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Inflation Rate MoM | -0.4 | 0.1 | 0.10 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Core Inflation Rate YoY | 2.6 | 2.5 | 2.55 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | CPI | 333.95 | 334.03 | 334.39 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Inflation Rate YoY | 3.5 | 3.4 | 3.45 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | CPI s.a | 332.568 | 332.6 | 332.85 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Core CPI YoY | 2.6 | 2.5 | 2.50 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | CPI YoY | 3.5 | 3.4 | 3.45 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | CPI MoM | -0.4 | 0.1 | 0.10 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Core CPI MoM | 0 | 0.2 | 0.20 | High | |
| 18:00 | US | Monthly Budget Statement | -120 | -340 | -342.50 | Medium | |