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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS Redbook MoM climbed to -17.2% in March 2021
FMPMonthlyReleased April 2021
US Redbook MoM climbed to -17.2% in March 2021, released April 2021, up 0.2% from February's -17.4% reading.
Latest Release
-17.200000
Actual
—
Consensus
-17.400000
Previous
Sigmacast Track Record
Sigmacast track record will appear here once this indicator has been released 3+ times since Sigmanomics began tracking.
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.50 | INDEX | Bullish Stocks | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.45 | FOREX | Bearish EUR | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.40 | FOREX | Bullish USD | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.35 | COMMODITIES | Bearish Gold | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | CRYPTO | Watch | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Redbook MoM (United States) was reported at -17.2% in April 2021. The reading rose from the previous value of -17.4%.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged -17.4%, down from the prior three at -12.1%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with S&P 500 (Bullish Stocks). A secondary relationship exists with EUR/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish EUR).
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Fed Bank Stress Test Results (Jun 24) and Chicago Fed National Activity Index (Jun 25).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update April 2021.
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Redbook MoM - US
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About Redbook MoM — United States
DEFINITION
Redbook MoM is a monthly financial indicator that measures the change in retail sales from the previous month. It is based on a survey of a sample of retail stores, providing valuable insights into consumer spending trends and overall economic activity. This indicator is widely used by investors, economists, and policymakers to gauge the health of the retail sector and make informed decisions. A positive Redbook MoM indicates an increase in retail sales, while a negative reading suggests a decline.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Apr 2021): actual -17.2 %. Prior reading (Mar 2021): -17.4 %. Before that (Mar 2021): -17.6 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with S&P 500 (Bullish Stocks, r=0.50) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Tuesday, June 23, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13:45 | US | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI | 55.7 | 55.1 | 54.8 | 55.25 | Medium |
| 13:45 | US | S&P Global Services PMI | 51.3 | 50.7 | 51 | 51.15 | Medium |
| 13:45 | US | S&P Global Composite PMI | 52.2 | 51.5 | 50.8 | 51.50 | Medium |
| 14:00 | US | Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index | 4 | 13 | 9 | 6.50 | Low |
| 14:00 | US | Richmond Fed Services Index | -1 | 14 | 11 | 5.00 | Low |
| 14:00 | US | Richmond Fed Manufacturing Shipments Index | 3 | 16 | 9 | 6.00 | Low |
| Thursday, June 25, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Chicago Fed National Activity Index | 0.14 | 0.12 | 0.12 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Durable Goods Orders MoM | 7.9 | -4.3 | -4.30 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE Price Index MoM | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.30 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Initial Jobless Claims | 226 | 225 | 225.00 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Personal Income MoM | 0 | 0.4 | 0.40 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Personal Spending MoM | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.10 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Durable Goods Orders Ex Transp MoM | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.70 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | PCE Price Index MoM | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.50 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Non Defense Goods Orders Ex Air | -1.1 | 0.6 | 0.60 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Continuing Jobless Claims | 1810 | 1800 | 1784.50 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE Price Index YoY | 3.3 | 3.4 | 3.40 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Durable Goods Orders Ex Defense MoM | 8.1 | -3.9 | -3.90 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Jobless Claims 4-Week Average | 223.25 | 226 | 225.25 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | PCE Price Index YoY | 3.8 | 4 | 4.00 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Real Consumer Spending | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.40 | Low | |
| 15:00 | US | Kansas Fed Composite Index | 8 | 6 | 10.00 | Low | |
| 15:00 | US | Kansas Fed Manufacturing Index | 9 | 7 | 11.50 | Low | |
| Friday, June 26, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Wholesale Inventories MoM | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.20 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Inventories Ex Autos MoM | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.10 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Goods Trade Balance | -83.01 | -85.4 | -85.40 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Goods Trade Balance Adv | -83 | -85.2 | -85.20 | Medium | |