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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS Michigan 1 Year Inflation Expectations climbed to 4.6% in September 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased September 2026
US Michigan 1 Year Inflation Expectations climbed to 4.6% in September 2026, up 0.6% from August's 4.0% reading. The print exceeded the 4.2% consensus by 0.4%. Over the past 3 months, Michigan 1 Year Inflation Expectations averaged 4.17%, vs 4.68% in the prior 3-month window.
Latest Release
4.6
Actual
4.2
Consensus
4
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.3 percentage points
across last 5 releases
Last Call
Sep 2026
Predicted: 4.13
Actual: 4.6
Error: -0.47
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.45 | CRYPTO | Moves against | → View |
| NZD/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.26 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Michigan 1 Year Inflation Expectations (United States) was reported at 4.6% in September 2026. This beat the market consensus of 4.2% by 0.4%. The reading rose from the previous value of 4%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through September 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 4.42%, ranging from 4% to 4.8% across 6 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 4.3%, down from the prior three at 4.53%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with BTC/USD (Bearish BTC).
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Sep 15) and NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Sep 15).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update September 2026.
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Michigan 1 Year Inflation Expectations - US
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About Michigan 1 Year Inflation Expectations — United States
DEFINITION
US Michigan 1 Year Inflation Expectations rose to 4.600000% in September, beating the 4.200000% estimate. This marks an increase from August’s 4.000000%, signaling a rebound in inflation sentiment after a prior dip. The upward shift may influence market pricing and Federal Reserve policy considerations ahead of upcoming economic data. Updated 9/11/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Inflation prints feed directly into central-bank policy expectations and real-yield calculations, and are among the most rate-sensitive releases on the calendar. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Sep 2026): actual 4.6 %, consensus 4.2 %. Prior reading (Aug 2026): 4 %. Before that (Aug 2026): 4.3 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with BTC/USD (Bearish BTC, r=-0.45) — a useful reference for crypto-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Monday, September 14, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15:30 | US | 3-Month Bill Auction | 3.8 | 3.809 | 3.81 | Low | |
| Tuesday, September 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | NY Empire State Manufacturing Index | 20.6 | 15 | 10.85 | High | |
| Wednesday, September 16, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales MoM | -0.6 | 0.9 | 0.90 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM | -0.3 | 0.5 | 0.50 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Import Prices YoY | 5.9 | 6 | 6.35 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales Ex Gas/Autos MoM | -0.2 | 0.1 | 0.10 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales YoY | 5 | 4.3 | 4.30 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Export Prices MoM | -1.3 | -0.5 | -0.45 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Import Prices MoM | -0.4 | 0.2 | 0.65 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Export Prices YoY | 8.2 | 7.5 | 7.90 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | Business Inventories MoM | 0 | 0.2 | 0.20 | Medium | |
| 14:00 | US | NAHB Housing Market Index | 35 | 34 | 33.50 | Medium | |
| 18:00 | US | Fed Interest Rate Decision | 3.75 | 4 | 4.00 | High | |
| 20:00 | US | Net Long-Term TIC Flows | 172.7 | 146.3 | 146.30 | Medium | |