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Data from U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS Nonfarm Business Unit Labor Costs fell to 1.2 in January 2026
U.S. Bureau of Labor StatisticsQuarterlyReleased April 2026
US Nonfarm Business Unit Labor Costs fell to 1.2 in January 2026, released April 2026, down 0.1 from December's 1.3 reading.
Latest Release
1.200000
Actual
—
Consensus
1.300000
Previous
Sigmacast Track Record
Sigmacast track record will appear here once this indicator has been released 3+ times since Sigmanomics began tracking.
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.50 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.45 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.40 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.35 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | CRYPTO | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Nonfarm Business Unit Labor Costs (United States) was reported at 1.20 Index 2012=100 in January 2026. The reading fell from the previous value of 1.30 Index 2012=100. This is classified as a high-impact indicator released on a quarterly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 2.37 Index 2012=100, up from the prior three at 1.80 Index 2012=100. In April readings over the past 3 years, Nonfarm Business Unit Labor Costs has averaged -0.20 Index 2012=100.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with S&P 500 (Bullish Stocks). A secondary relationship exists with EUR/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish EUR).
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate (Sep 9) and API Crude Oil Stock Change (Sep 9).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update April 2026.
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Nonfarm Business Unit Labor Costs - US
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About Nonfarm Business Unit Labor Costs — United States
DEFINITION
US Nonfarm Business Unit Labor Costs surged 4.400000 in September, sharply up from August’s 1.000000. This jump reverses the prior cooling trend and signals renewed wage inflation pressures well above the 12-month average of 2.46%. Market reaction was immediate, with rate-sensitive assets falling as investors price in a more hawkish Federal Reserve stance. Updated 4/3/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. Surprises against consensus typically move rates and currencies on release. Released quarterly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Apr 2026): actual 1.2 Index 2012=100. Prior reading (Jan 2026): 1.3 Index 2012=100. Before that (Oct 2025): 4.6 Index 2012=100.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook diverging from that direction. The 1-month and 3-month horizons disagree, suggesting a mixed signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with S&P 500 (Bullish Stocks, r=0.50) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Tuesday, September 8, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10:00 | US | NFIB Business Optimism Index | 99.8 | 99.3 | 98.95 | Low | |
| 15:00 | US | Consumer Inflation Expectation | 3.6 | 3.6 | 3.60 | Low | |
| 15:30 | US | 3-Month Bill Auction | 3.77 | 3.7999 | 3.80 | Low | |
| 19:00 | US | Consumer Credit Change | 14.17 | 12 | 12.00 | Low | |