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Data from U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS Nonfarm Business Unit Labor Costs climbed to 4.4 in July 2025
U.S. Bureau of Labor StatisticsQuarterlyReleased October 2025
US Nonfarm Business Unit Labor Costs climbed to 4.4 in July 2025, released October 2025, up 3.4 from June's 1 reading.
Latest Release
4.400000
Actual
—
Consensus
1.000000
Previous
Sigmacast Track Record
Sigmacast track record will appear here once this indicator has been released 3+ times since Sigmanomics began tracking.
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.50 | INDEX | Bullish Stocks | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.45 | FOREX | Bearish EUR | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.40 | FOREX | Bullish USD | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.35 | COMMODITIES | Bearish Gold | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | CRYPTO | Watch | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Nonfarm Business Unit Labor Costs (United States) was reported at 4.40 Index 2012=100 in July 2025. The reading rose from the previous value of 1.00 Index 2012=100. This is classified as a high-impact indicator released on a quarterly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 0.83 Index 2012=100, down from the prior three at 3.77 Index 2012=100. In October readings over the past 3 years, Nonfarm Business Unit Labor Costs has averaged 2.83 Index 2012=100.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with S&P 500 (Bullish Stocks). A secondary relationship exists with EUR/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish EUR).
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Leading Index MoM (May 22) and Fed Waller Speech (May 22).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2025.
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Nonfarm Business Unit Labor Costs - US
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Wednesday, May 20, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14:30 | US | EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change | -7.864 | -4.306 | -2.9 | -5.38 | Medium |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Distillate Stocks Change | 0.372 | 0.19 | -1.1 | -0.36 | Low |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Gasoline Stocks Change | -1.548 | -4.084 | -2.1 | -1.82 | Medium |
| Thursday, May 21, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Building Permits | 1.442 | 1.363 | 1.39 | 1.53 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Housing Starts MoM | -2.8 | 12 | -3.5 | -3.15 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Housing Starts | 1.465 | 1.507 | 1.41 | 1.44 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Building Permits MoM | 5.8 | -11.5 | 0.5 | 3.15 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Continuing Jobless Claims | 1782 | 1776 | 1790 | 1786.00 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Jobless Claims 4-Week Average | 202.5 | 204 | 203 | 202.75 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index | -0.4 | 26.7 | 18 | 15.73 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Initial Jobless Claims | 209 | 212 | 210 | 209.50 | Medium |
| 13:45 | US | S&P Global Services PMI | 50.9 | 51 | 51.1 | 50.88 | Medium |
| 13:45 | US | S&P Global Composite PMI | 51.7 | 51.7 | 51.5 | 51.60 | Medium |
| 13:45 | US | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI | 55.3 | 54.5 | 53.8 | 53.88 | Medium |
| 14:00 | US | Atlanta Fed GDPNow | 4.3 | 4 | 4 | 3.92 | Medium |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change | 101 | 85 | 95 | 98.00 | Low |
| 15:00 | US | Kansas Fed Manufacturing Index | 9 | 10 | 9 | 9.00 | Low |
| 15:00 | US | Kansas Fed Composite Index | 8 | 10 | 9 | 8.50 | Low |