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Data from U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS CPI Owners Equivalent Rent climbed to 440.68 in April 2026
U.S. Bureau of Labor StatisticsMonthlyReleased May 2026
US CPI Owners Equivalent Rent climbed to 440.68 in April 2026, released May 2026, up 1.3 from March's 439.38 reading.
Latest Release
440.683000
Actual
—
Consensus
439.379000
Previous
Sigmacast Track Record
Sigmacast track record will appear here once this indicator has been released 3+ times since Sigmanomics began tracking.
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.73 | COMMODITIES | Moves with | → View |
| AUD/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.69 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| GOOGL | ▲ Direct | +0.66 | STOCKS | Moves with | → View |
| USD/CHF | ▼ Inverse | −0.64 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.48 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
CPI Owners Equivalent Rent (United States) was reported at 440.68 Index 1982-84=100 in April 2026. The reading rose from the previous value of 439.38 Index 1982-84=100. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 435.08 Index 1982-84=100, ranging from 430.46 Index 1982-84=100 to 440.68 Index 1982-84=100 across 9 releases. This is classified as a high-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 439.04 Index 1982-84=100, up from the prior three at 434.84 Index 1982-84=100. Volatility over the past year (σ 3.32 Index 1982-84=100) is lower than the prior year (σ 4.69 Index 1982-84=100). In May readings over the past 3 years, CPI Owners Equivalent Rent has averaged 425.58 Index 1982-84=100.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with XAU/USD (Bullish XAU). A secondary relationship exists with AUD/USD, positively correlated (Bullish AUD).
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Inflation Rate YoY (Jul 14) and Core Inflation Rate YoY (Jul 14).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update May 2026.
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CPI Owners Equivalent Rent - US
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About CPI Owners Equivalent Rent — United States
DEFINITION
US CPI Owners Equivalent Rent rose to 440.683 in May, up from April's 439.379, marking a steady increase. The May reading continues the upward trend from March's 437.051, indicating persistent pressure on housing costs. Market participants will watch upcoming inflation data closely amid ongoing Federal Reserve policy considerations. Updated 7/4/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Inflation prints feed directly into central-bank policy expectations and real-yield calculations, and are among the most rate-sensitive releases on the calendar. Surprises against consensus typically move rates and currencies on release. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (May 2026): actual 440.7 Index 1982-84=100. Prior reading (Apr 2026): 439.4 Index 1982-84=100. Before that (Mar 2026): 437.1 Index 1982-84=100.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with XAU/USD (Bullish XAU, r=0.73) — a useful reference for commodities-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Monday, July 13, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18:00 | US | Monthly Budget Statement | -120 | -293 | -132.8 | -126.40 | Medium |
| 18:00 | US | Budget Balance | -120 | -293 | -135.8 | -127.90 | Medium |
| Tuesday, July 14, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 10:00 | US | NFIB Business Optimism Index | 95.3 | 95.6 | 94.20 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Inflation Rate YoY | 4.2 | 3.8 | 3.80 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Core Inflation Rate YoY | 2.9 | 2.9 | 2.90 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | CPI s.a | 333.979 | 334 | 334.00 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Core Inflation Rate MoM | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.20 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | CPI | 335.12 | 334.71 | 334.71 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Inflation Rate MoM | 0.5 | -0.1 | -0.10 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | CPI MoM | 0.5 | -0.1 | -0.10 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | CPI YoY | 4.2 | 3.8 | 3.80 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Core CPI MoM | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.20 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Core CPI YoY | 2.9 | 2.9 | 2.90 | Medium | |
| 20:00 | US | Net Long-Term TIC Flows | 103.1 | 128 | 139.00 | Medium | |
| Wednesday, July 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Producer Price Index | 157.659 | 159.1 | 158.50 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Producer Price Index YoY | 6.5 | 7.2 | 6.90 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Core PPI YoY | 4.9 | 5.2 | 5.05 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Producer Price Index MoM | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.50 | High | |
| Thursday, July 16, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.40 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales YoY | 6.9 | 6.7 | 6.70 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales Ex Gas/Autos MoM | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.30 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales MoM | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.30 | High | |
| 14:00 | US | Pending Home Sales YoY | 4.8 | 1.3 | 1.30 | Medium | |
| Friday, July 17, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Import Prices YoY | 6.7 | 5.4 | 5.45 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Housing Starts | 1.177 | 1.2 | 1.20 | High | |
| 13:15 | US | Industrial Production YoY | 1.7 | 1.5 | 1.50 | Low | |
| 13:15 | US | Manufacturing Production YoY | 1.4 | 1 | 1.00 | Low | |
| 13:15 | US | Capacity Utilization | 76.2 | 76.7 | 76.70 | Low | |