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Data from U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS PCE Prices QoQ 2 fell to 1.3% in Q1 2020
U.S. Bureau of Economic AnalysisMonthlyReleased May 2020
US PCE Prices QoQ 2 fell to 1.3% in Q1 2020, released May 2020, down 0.1% from December's 1.4% reading. The reading matched the 1.3% consensus. PCE Prices QoQ 2 has now declined for 3 consecutive months. PCE Prices QoQ 2 is now the lowest in 9 months.
Latest Release
1.3
Actual
1.3
Consensus
1.4
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.1 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
May 2020
Predicted: 1.3
Actual: 1.3
Error: +0
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.50 | INDEX | Bullish Stocks | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.45 | FOREX | Bearish EUR | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.40 | FOREX | Bullish USD | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.35 | COMMODITIES | Bearish Gold | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | CRYPTO | Watch | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
PCE Prices QoQ 2 (United States) was reported at 3.7% in November 2020. The reading rose from the previous value of -1.6%. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 1.07%, down from the prior three at 1.4%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with S&P 500 (Bullish Stocks). A secondary relationship exists with EUR/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish EUR). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.1%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate (Jun 17) and Retail Sales MoM (Jun 17).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update November 2020.
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PCE Prices QoQ 2 - US
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About PCE Prices QoQ 2 — United States
DEFINITION
PCE Prices QoQ 2 is a financial indicator that measures the quarterly change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index. This index reflects the average price changes of goods and services purchased by individuals and is considered a key measure of inflation. A positive value indicates an increase in prices, while a negative value indicates a decrease. This indicator is closely monitored by economists and investors as it provides insight into the overall health of the economy and can impact monetary policy decisions.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Inflation prints feed directly into central-bank policy expectations and real-yield calculations, and are among the most rate-sensitive releases on the calendar. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jul 2020): actual 3.7 %. Prior reading (Apr 2020): -1.8 %. Before that (Jan 2020): 1.3 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with S&P 500 (Bullish Stocks, r=0.50) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.