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Data from U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS CPI-U All Items fell to 332.57 in May 2026
U.S. Bureau of Labor StatisticsMonthlyReleased June 2026
US CPI-U All Items fell to 332.57 in May 2026, released June 2026, down 1.41 from April's 333.98 reading.
Latest Release
332.568000
Actual
—
Consensus
333.979000
Previous
Sigmacast Track Record
Sigmacast track record will appear here once this indicator has been released 3+ times since Sigmanomics began tracking.
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NZD/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.77 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▼ Inverse | −0.68 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| AUD/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.65 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| USD/CHF | ▼ Inverse | −0.65 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.64 | COMMODITIES | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
CPI-U All Items (United States) was reported at 332.57 Index 1982-84=100 in May 2026. The reading fell from the previous value of 333.98 Index 1982-84=100. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 328.74 Index 1982-84=100, ranging from 324.25 Index 1982-84=100 to 333.98 Index 1982-84=100 across 9 releases. This is classified as a critical-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 332.98 Index 1982-84=100, up from the prior three at 328.11 Index 1982-84=100. Volatility over the past year (σ 3.42 Index 1982-84=100) is higher than the prior year (σ 2.53 Index 1982-84=100). In June readings over the past 3 years, CPI-U All Items has averaged 322.35 Index 1982-84=100.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with NZD/USD (Bullish NZD). A secondary relationship exists with S&P 500, negatively correlated (Bearish S&P 500).
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Existing Home Sales MoM (Aug 11) and Existing Home Sales (Aug 11).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update June 2026.
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CPI-U All Items - US
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About CPI-U All Items — United States
DEFINITION
The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U), All Items, published monthly by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Measures the average change in prices paid by urban consumers for a market basket of consumer goods and services. The headline US inflation gauge.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Headline CPI is the most-watched inflation print globally. It directly influences Fed policy expectations, real-yield calculations, TIPS pricing, and inflation-linked cost-of-living adjustments (Social Security, federal pensions). A hot CPI print can trigger same-day cross-asset repricing of significant magnitude.
MARKET IMPACT
| Market | Direction | Strength | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|
| US Treasuries | negative | high | Yields spike on upside surprises |
| USD | positive | high | Hawkish Fed pricing on hot CPI |
| S&P 500 | negative | high | Discount-rate shock + tightening fears |
| Gold | mixed | medium | Hedge vs. real-yield response cross-cancel |
FAQ
- What is the difference between headline and core CPI?
- Headline includes food and energy; core excludes them to reduce volatility and reveal underlying trend.
- When is CPI released?
- Mid-month, typically the second Tuesday or Wednesday, at 8:30 AM ET.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jun 2026): actual 332.6 Index 1982-84=100. Prior reading (May 2026): 334 Index 1982-84=100. Before that (Apr 2026): 332.4 Index 1982-84=100.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook diverging from that direction. The 1-month and 3-month horizons disagree, suggesting a mixed signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with NZD/USD (Bullish NZD, r=0.77) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Tuesday, August 11, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10:00 | US | NFIB Business Optimism Index | 97.4 | 97.8 | 97.70 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | Existing Home Sales MoM | -2.4 | -0.7 | -1.65 | Medium | |
| 14:00 | US | Existing Home Sales | 4.09 | 4.07 | 4.05 | High | |
| Wednesday, August 12, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Core Inflation Rate MoM | 0 | 0.2 | 0.25 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Inflation Rate MoM | -0.4 | 0.1 | 0.10 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Inflation Rate YoY | 3.5 | 3.4 | 3.45 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Core Inflation Rate YoY | 2.6 | 2.5 | 2.55 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | CPI | 333.95 | 334.03 | 334.39 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | CPI s.a | 332.568 | 332.6 | 332.85 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Core CPI YoY | 2.6 | 2.5 | 2.50 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | CPI YoY | 3.5 | 3.4 | 3.45 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | CPI MoM | -0.4 | 0.1 | 0.10 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Core CPI MoM | 0 | 0.2 | 0.20 | High | |
| 18:00 | US | Monthly Budget Statement | -120 | -294.6 | -297.10 | Medium | |
| 18:00 | US | Budget Balance | -120 | -294.6 | -265.70 | Medium | |
| Thursday, August 13, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Continuing Jobless Claims | 1801 | 1799 | 1799.00 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Initial Jobless Claims | 199 | 198 | 198.00 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Core PPI YoY | 4.7 | 4.7 | 5.15 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Core PPI MoM | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.55 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Producer Price Index MoM | -0.3 | 0.1 | 0.55 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Jobless Claims 4-Week Average | 198.75 | 197 | 197.00 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | PPI Ex Food, Energy and Trade YoY | 5.1 | 5.1 | 5.45 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | PPI Ex Food, Energy and Trade MoM | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.25 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Producer Price Index | 156.566 | 156.41 | 157.36 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Producer Price Index YoY | 5.5 | 5 | 5.55 | Low | |