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Data from U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS Total Nonfarm Payrolls climbed to 158,984 Thousands in May 2026
U.S. Bureau of Labor StatisticsMonthlyReleased June 2026
US Total Nonfarm Payrolls climbed to 158,984 Thousands in May 2026, released June 2026, up 57 Thousands from April's 158,927 Thousands reading.
Latest Release
158984.000000
Actual
—
Consensus
158927.000000
Previous
Sigmacast Track Record
Sigmacast track record will appear here once this indicator has been released 3+ times since Sigmanomics began tracking.
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | ▼ Inverse | −0.58 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| AAPL | ▼ Inverse | −0.45 | STOCKS | Moves against | → View |
| GOOGL | ▼ Inverse | −0.33 | STOCKS | Moves against | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.32 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| MSFT | ▲ Direct | +0.29 | STOCKS | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Total Nonfarm Payrolls (United States) was reported at 158,984.00 Thousands in May 2026. The reading rose from the previous value of 158,927.00 Thousands. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 158,622.40 Thousands, ranging from 158,408.00 Thousands to 158,984.00 Thousands across 10 releases. This is classified as a critical-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 158,903.00 Thousands, up from the prior three at 158,559.33 Thousands. Volatility over the past year (σ 202.14 Thousands) is comparable than the prior year (σ 209.25 Thousands). In June readings over the past 3 years, Total Nonfarm Payrolls has averaged 158,385.67 Thousands.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with S&P 500 (Bearish S&P 500). A secondary relationship exists with AAPL, negatively correlated (Bearish AAPL).
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Jackson Hole Symposium (Aug 28) and Chicago PMI (Aug 28).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update June 2026.
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Total Nonfarm Payrolls - US
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About Total Nonfarm Payrolls — United States
DEFINITION
US Total Nonfarm Payrolls for July registered at 158858.000000K, slightly missing June’s 158881.000000K figure. The data shows a marginal decline from June to July, indicating a near-stagnant labor market. Market participants will focus on upcoming wage growth and unemployment reports for clearer policy signals. Updated 8/8/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Labor-market data shapes consumer-spending forecasts and is closely tracked by central banks assessing the output gap and wage-inflation pass-through. Releases in this category are tier-1 market events that frequently produce same-session cross-asset repricing. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jun 2026): actual 158,984 Thousands. Prior reading (May 2026): 158,927 Thousands. Before that (Apr 2026): 158,798 Thousands.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with S&P 500 (Bearish S&P 500, r=-0.58) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Wednesday, August 26, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:30 | US | Non Defense Goods Orders Ex Air | 0.2 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.35 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Durable Goods Orders MoM | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 1.75 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Durable Goods Orders Ex Transp MoM | 0.4 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.70 | High |
| 12:30 | US | PCE Price Index MoM | 0.2 | -0.1 | 0.1 | 0.10 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Durable Goods Orders Ex Defense MoM | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 1.88 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Corporate Profits QoQ | 8.2 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 1.05 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE Price Index YoY | 3.3 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 3.30 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE Price Index MoM | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.18 | High |
| 12:30 | US | PCE Price Index YoY | 3.7 | 3.7 | 3.6 | 3.63 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Personal Income MoM | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.15 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Personal Spending MoM | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.18 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Real Consumer Spending QoQ | 3.4 | 0.5 | 3.2 | 3.20 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | GDP Growth Rate QoQ | 1.5 | 2.1 | 1.5 | 1.40 | High |
| 12:30 | US | GDP Price Index QoQ | 6.4 | 3.6 | 6.3 | 6.08 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | GDP Sales QoQ | 2.2 | 1.9 | 2.2 | 2.18 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Gross Domestic Product QoQ | 1.5 | 2.1 | 1.5 | 1.40 | High |
| 12:30 | US | PCE Prices QoQ | 5.3 | 4.6 | 5.1 | 5.15 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE Prices QoQ | 3.6 | 4.4 | 3.4 | 3.48 | Low |
| 14:10 | US | Atlanta Fed GDPNow | 4.6 | 4 | 4 | 4.03 | Medium |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Distillate Stocks Change | -2.228 | -1.53 | -1.6 | -2.03 | Low |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Gasoline Stocks Change | -2.536 | 0.688 | -0.7 | -1.20 | Medium |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change | 0.095 | 4.405 | 0.6 | 0.67 | Medium |
| Thursday, August 27, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Goods Trade Balance Adv | -118.8 | -101.41 | -99 | -108.90 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Jobless Claims 4-Week Average | 205.5 | 204.25 | 203 | 203.13 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Initial Jobless Claims | 203 | 207 | 208 | 207.75 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Inventories Ex Autos MoM | 0.7 | -0.5 | 0 | 0.35 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Wholesale Inventories MoM | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.70 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Continuing Jobless Claims | 1778 | 1796 | 1790 | 1788.50 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Goods Trade Balance | -118.8 | -101.41 | -99 | -108.90 | High |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change | 15 | 16 | 20 | 17.75 | Low |
| 15:00 | US | Kansas Fed Manufacturing Index | 17 | 17 | 14 | 15.50 | Low |
| 15:00 | US | Kansas Fed Composite Index | 10 | 9 | 8 | 9.00 | Low |