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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS House Price Index climbed to 441.5 in March 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased May 2026
US House Price Index climbed to 441.5 in March 2026, released May 2026, up 0.3 from February's 441.2 reading. The reading matched the 441.8 consensus. House Price Index has now risen for 9 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, House Price Index averaged 441.2, vs 438.8 in the prior 3-month window. House Price Index is now the highest in 36 months.
Latest Release
441.5
Actual
441.8
Consensus
441.2
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±1.24
across last 12 releases
Last Call
May 2026
Predicted: 444.3
Actual: 441.5
Error: +2.8
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | ▼ Inverse | −0.45 | INDEX | Bearish S&P 500 | → View |
| AUD/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.32 | FOREX | Bearish AUD | → View |
| NZD/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.25 | FOREX | Bearish NZD | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
House Price Index (United States) was reported at 441.50 in May 2026. This missed the market consensus of 441.80 by 0.30. The reading rose from the previous value of 441.20. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through May 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 436.92, ranging from 433.40 to 441.50 across 11 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 440.97, up from the prior three at 437.13. Volatility over the past year (σ 2.91) is lower than the prior year (σ 5.10). In May readings over the past 3 years, House Price Index has averaged 433.83.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with S&P 500 (Bearish S&P 500). A secondary relationship exists with AUD/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish AUD). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 1.24.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for June 30, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Jun 15) and Industrial Production MoM (Jun 15).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update May 2026.
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House Price Index - US
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About House Price Index — United States
DEFINITION
The House Price Index (HPI) is a key economic indicator that measures the changes in the prices of residential properties in a specific geographic area over time. It provides valuable insights into the overall health and stability of the housing market, and is often used by economists, policymakers, and investors to assess the current and future trends in the real estate sector. The HPI is calculated using a variety of data sources, including property sales and appraisals, and is an important tool for monitoring and analyzing the performance of the housing market.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Mar 2026): actual 441.5, consensus 441.8. Prior reading (Feb 2026): 441.4. Before that (Jan 2026): 441.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with S&P 500 (Bearish S&P 500, r=-0.45) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.