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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS House Price Index climbed to 442.4 in May 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased July 2026
US House Price Index climbed to 442.4 in May 2026, released July 2026, up 1.1 from April's 441.3 reading. The reading matched the 441.4 consensus. Year-over-year, the indicator is up 8. Over the past 3 months, House Price Index averaged 441.45, vs 440.93 in the prior 3-month window. House Price Index is now the highest in 36 months.
Latest Release
442.4
Actual
441.4
Consensus
441.3
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±1.35
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jul 2026
Predicted: 441.08
Actual: 442.4
Error: -1.32
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD/CHF | ▼ Inverse | −0.65 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.55 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.53 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
| AAPL | ▼ Inverse | −0.39 | STOCKS | Moves against | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▼ Inverse | −0.32 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
House Price Index (United States) was reported at 442.40 in July 2026. This beat the market consensus of 441.40 by 1.00. The reading rose from the previous value of 441.30. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through July 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 438.24, ranging from 433.40 to 442.40 across 11 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 441.77, up from the prior three at 440.23. Volatility over the past year (σ 3.21) is lower than the prior year (σ 4.70). In July readings over the past 3 years, House Price Index has averaged 433.80.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with USD/CHF (Bearish USD). A secondary relationship exists with EUR/USD, positively correlated (Bullish EUR). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 1.35.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for August 25, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Employment Cost Index QoQ (Jul 31) and Employment Cost - Wages QoQ (Jul 31).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
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House Price Index - US
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About House Price Index — United States
DEFINITION
The House Price Index (HPI) is a key economic indicator that measures the changes in the prices of residential properties in a specific geographic area over time. It provides valuable insights into the overall health and stability of the housing market, and is often used by economists, policymakers, and investors to assess the current and future trends in the real estate sector. The HPI is calculated using a variety of data sources, including property sales and appraisals, and is an important tool for monitoring and analyzing the performance of the housing market.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (May 2026): actual 442.4, consensus 441.4. Prior reading (Apr 2026): 441.4. Before that (Mar 2026): 441.5.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with USD/CHF (Bearish USD, r=-0.65) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Wednesday, July 29, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14:30 | US | EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change | -7.167 | 2.011 | -1.3 | -4.23 | Medium |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Gasoline Stocks Change | 0.007 | 0.765 | -0.7 | -0.35 | Medium |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Distillate Stocks Change | 1.062 | 1.395 | 0.2 | 0.63 | Low |
| 18:00 | US | Fed Interest Rate Decision | 3.75 | 3.75 | 3.75 | 3.75 | High |
| Thursday, July 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Personal Income MoM | 0.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.35 | High |
| 12:30 | US | PCE Price Index MoM | -0.1 | 0.5 | -0.1 | -0.10 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | PCE Prices QoQ | 5.1 | 4.6 | 4 | 4.63 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Initial Jobless Claims | 197 | 188 | 200 | 192.75 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Real Consumer Spending QoQ | 3.2 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.85 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | PCE Price Index YoY | 3.7 | 4.1 | 3.7 | 3.70 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | GDP Growth Rate QoQ | 1.5 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 1.88 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Continuing Jobless Claims | 1782 | 1789 | 1800 | 1786.75 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Gross Domestic Product QoQ | 1.5 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 1.90 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Jobless Claims 4-Week Average | 202.75 | 207.75 | 210 | 205.06 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE Price Index MoM | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.18 | High |
| 12:30 | US | GDP Sales QoQ | 2.2 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 1.82 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE Price Index YoY | 3.3 | 3.4 | 3.3 | 3.30 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE Prices QoQ | 3.4 | 4.4 | 3.5 | 3.52 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | GDP Price Index QoQ | 6.3 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 4.45 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Personal Spending MoM | 0.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.30 | High |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change | 28 | 32 | 35 | 33.00 | Low |