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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS House Price Index climbed to 442.5 in June 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased August 2026
US House Price Index climbed to 442.5 in June 2026, released August 2026, up 0.1 from May's 442.4 reading. The reading matched the 442.8 consensus. House Price Index has now risen for 3 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, House Price Index averaged 441.9, vs 441.3 in the prior 3-month window. House Price Index is now the highest in 36 months.
Latest Release
442.5
Actual
442.8
Consensus
442.4
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±1.35
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Aug 2026
Predicted: 442.8
Actual: 442.5
Error: +0.3
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD/CHF | ▼ Inverse | −0.61 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.51 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.42 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| AAPL | ▼ Inverse | −0.40 | STOCKS | Moves against | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.39 | CRYPTO | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
House Price Index (United States) was reported at 442.50 in August 2026. This missed the market consensus of 442.80 by 0.30. The reading rose from the previous value of 442.40. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through August 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 439.03, ranging from 433.40 to 442.50 across 11 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 442.10, up from the prior three at 440.97. Volatility over the past year (σ 3.09) is lower than the prior year (σ 3.70). In August readings over the past 3 years, House Price Index has averaged 433.60.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with USD/CHF (Bearish USD). A secondary relationship exists with XAU/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish XAU). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 1.35.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for September 29, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Sep 15) and NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Sep 15).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update August 2026.
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House Price Index - US
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About House Price Index — United States
DEFINITION
The House Price Index (HPI) is a key economic indicator that measures the changes in the prices of residential properties in a specific geographic area over time. It provides valuable insights into the overall health and stability of the housing market, and is often used by economists, policymakers, and investors to assess the current and future trends in the real estate sector. The HPI is calculated using a variety of data sources, including property sales and appraisals, and is an important tool for monitoring and analyzing the performance of the housing market.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jun 2026): actual 442.5, consensus 442.8. Prior reading (May 2026): 442.4. Before that (Apr 2026): 441.4.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with USD/CHF (Bearish USD, r=-0.61) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Monday, September 14, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15:30 | US | 3-Month Bill Auction | 3.8 | 3.809 | 3.81 | Low | |
| Tuesday, September 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | NY Empire State Manufacturing Index | 20.6 | 15 | 10.85 | High | |
| Wednesday, September 16, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales MoM | -0.6 | 0.9 | 0.90 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM | -0.3 | 0.5 | 0.50 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Import Prices YoY | 5.9 | 6 | 6.35 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales Ex Gas/Autos MoM | -0.2 | 0.1 | 0.10 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales YoY | 5 | 4.3 | 4.30 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Export Prices MoM | -1.3 | -0.5 | -0.45 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Import Prices MoM | -0.4 | 0.2 | 0.65 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Export Prices YoY | 8.2 | 7.5 | 7.90 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | Business Inventories MoM | 0 | 0.2 | 0.20 | Medium | |
| 14:00 | US | NAHB Housing Market Index | 35 | 34 | 33.50 | Medium | |
| 18:00 | US | Fed Interest Rate Decision | 3.75 | 4 | 4.00 | High | |
| 20:00 | US | Net Long-Term TIC Flows | 172.7 | 146.3 | 146.30 | Medium | |