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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS House Price Index climbed to 444.6 in August 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased October 2026
US House Price Index climbed to 444.6 in August 2026, released October 2026, up 1.4 from July's 443.2 reading. The reading matched the 444.4 consensus. House Price Index has now risen for 5 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, House Price Index averaged 443, vs 441.77 in the prior 3-month window. House Price Index is now the highest in 36 months.
Latest Release
444.6
Actual
444.4
Consensus
443.2
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±1.35
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Oct 2026
Predicted: 444.47
Actual: 444.6
Error: -0.13
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD/CHF | ▼ Inverse | −0.72 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.58 | CRYPTO | Moves with | → View |
| AAPL | ▼ Inverse | −0.50 | STOCKS | Moves against | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.47 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| GBP/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.37 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
House Price Index (United States) was reported at 444.60 in October 2026. This beat the market consensus of 444.40 by 0.20. The reading rose from the previous value of 443.20. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 440.79, ranging from 435.40 to 444.60 across 11 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 443.53, up from the prior three at 441.77. Volatility over the past year (σ 2.64) is comparable than the prior year (σ 2.74). In October readings over the past 3 years, House Price Index has averaged 429.68.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with USD/CHF (Bearish USD). A secondary relationship exists with BTC/USD, positively correlated (Bullish BTC). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 1.35.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for November 24, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Initial Jobless Claims (Oct 29) and GDP Price Index QoQ (Oct 29).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
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House Price Index - US
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About House Price Index — United States
DEFINITION
The House Price Index (HPI) is a key economic indicator that measures the changes in the prices of residential properties in a specific geographic area over time. It provides valuable insights into the overall health and stability of the housing market, and is often used by economists, policymakers, and investors to assess the current and future trends in the real estate sector. The HPI is calculated using a variety of data sources, including property sales and appraisals, and is an important tool for monitoring and analyzing the performance of the housing market.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Aug 2026): actual 444.6, consensus 444.4. Prior reading (Jul 2026): 443.5. Before that (Jun 2026): 442.5.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with USD/CHF (Bearish USD, r=-0.72) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Wednesday, October 28, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:30 | US | Wholesale Inventories MoM | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.55 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Inventories Ex Autos MoM | 0.4 | 0.1 | -0.1 | 0.15 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Goods Trade Balance | -134.9 | -132.07 | -130 | -132.45 | High |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Distillate Stocks Change | -1.462 | 1.675 | -0.9 | -1.18 | Low |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change | -1.892 | -3.061 | 0 | -0.95 | Medium |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Gasoline Stocks Change | 3.87 | -2.952 | -0.9 | 1.49 | Medium |
| 18:00 | US | Fed Interest Rate Decision | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4.00 | High |
| Thursday, October 29, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Initial Jobless Claims | 194 | 199 | 197.50 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | GDP Price Index QoQ | 6.1 | 3.2 | 4.55 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE Price Index MoM | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.25 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | PCE Price Index YoY | 3.4 | 3.6 | 3.60 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Personal Income MoM | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.25 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | PCE Price Index MoM | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.50 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE Price Index YoY | 3 | 3.1 | 3.10 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Jobless Claims 4-Week Average | 197.75 | 197 | 193.38 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Continuing Jobless Claims | 1728 | 1720 | 1711.00 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Real Consumer Spending QoQ | 3.8 | 3.9 | 5.30 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | GDP Sales QoQ | 2.8 | 3.5 | 3.90 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Personal Spending MoM | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.60 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | GDP Growth Rate QoQ | 2.2 | 3.2 | 2.90 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE Prices QoQ | 3.3 | 2.4 | 2.35 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | PCE Prices QoQ | 5 | 3.4 | 3.95 | Low | |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change | 77 | 75 | 71.50 | Low | |