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Data from FRED. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS Federal Funds Effective Rate held to 3.63 Percent in May 2026
FREDMonthlyReleased June 2026
US Federal Funds Effective Rate held to 3.63 Percent in May 2026, released June 2026.
Latest Release
3.630000
Actual
—
Consensus
3.630000
Previous
Sigmacast Track Record
Sigmacast track record will appear here once this indicator has been released 3+ times since Sigmanomics began tracking.
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.31 | CRYPTO | Moves against | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.29 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| USD/CAD | ▼ Inverse | −0.27 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| USD/CHF | ▼ Inverse | −0.26 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Federal Funds Effective Rate (United States) was reported at 3.63 Percent in May 2026. The reading was unchanged from the previous release. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 3.82 Percent, ranging from 3.63 Percent to 4.33 Percent across 11 releases. This is classified as a critical-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 3.63 Percent, down from the prior three at 3.64 Percent. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.25 Percent) is lower than the prior year (σ 0.34 Percent). In June readings over the past 3 years, Federal Funds Effective Rate has averaged 4.43 Percent.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with BTC/USD (Bearish BTC).
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include API Crude Oil Stock Change (Jul 21) and MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate (Jul 22).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update June 2026.
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Federal Funds Effective Rate - US
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About Federal Funds Effective Rate — United States
DEFINITION
The US Federal Funds Effective Rate edged down to 3.630000% in May from April’s 3.640000%, marking a slight decline. This small decrease maintains the rate near its lowest level since late 2024, signaling a steady monetary policy stance. Market participants will watch upcoming economic data for clues on the Federal Reserve’s next moves. Updated 6/2/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. Releases in this category are tier-1 market events that frequently produce same-session cross-asset repricing. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jun 2026): actual 3.63 Percent. Prior reading (May 2026): 3.63 Percent. Before that (Apr 2026): 3.64 Percent.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Monday, July 20, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14:00 | US | Leading Index MoM | -0.2 | 0.1 | -0.1 | -0.15 | Medium |