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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS ISM Non-Manufacturing Employment climbed to 47.8 in August 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased September 2026
US ISM Non-Manufacturing Employment climbed to 47.8 in August 2026, released September 2026, up 0.4 from July's 47.4 reading. The reading matched the 48.3 consensus.
Latest Release
47.800000
Actual
48.300000
Consensus
47.400000
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±2.8
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Sep 2026
Predicted: 46.4
Actual: 47.8
Error: -1.4
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
THE RELEASE
ISM Non-Manufacturing Employment (United States) was reported at 47.80 in September 2026. This missed the market consensus of 48.30 by 0.50. The reading rose from the previous value of 47.40. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through September 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 49.06, ranging from 47.20 to 52.00 across 9 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 47.70, down from the prior three at 51.37. Volatility over the past year (σ 1.75) is lower than the prior year (σ 2.88).
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with USD/CAD (Bullish USD). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 2.80.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include FOMC Economic Projections (Sep 16) and Fed Interest Rate Decision (Sep 16).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update September 2026.
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ISM Non-Manufacturing Employment - US
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About ISM Non-Manufacturing Employment — United States
DEFINITION
The ISM Non-Manufacturing Employment is a key economic indicator that measures the employment trends in the non-manufacturing sector of the economy. It provides valuable insights into the health of the overall job market and can be used to gauge the strength of the service industry, which accounts for a significant portion of the US economy. This indicator is closely monitored by investors, policymakers, and businesses as it can impact consumer spending and overall economic growth.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Sentiment surveys are forward-looking inputs that often lead hard data on output and hiring. Sharp swings can drive cross-asset repricing. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Aug 2026): actual 47.8, consensus 48.3. Prior reading (Jul 2026): 47.4. Before that (May 2026): 47.9.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with USD/CAD (Bullish USD, r=0.41) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Tuesday, September 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:30 | US | NY Empire State Manufacturing Index | 7.6 | 20.6 | 14.75 | 11.18 | High |
| 20:30 | US | API Crude Oil Stock Change | 7.14 | -0.3 | -1.8 | 2.67 | Medium |
| 21:00 | US | API Crude Oil Stock Change | 7.14 | -0.3 | -1.8 | 2.67 | Medium |
| Wednesday, September 16, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales MoM | 1.2 | -0.5 | 0.8 | 1.00 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM | 1.4 | -0.2 | 0.5 | 0.80 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Import Prices YoY | 7 | 6.1 | 6.4 | 6.70 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales Ex Gas/Autos MoM | 1.2 | -0.3 | 0.2 | 0.45 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales YoY | 6 | 5.03 | 4.7 | 5.75 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Export Prices MoM | 0.6 | -1.4 | 0.5 | 0.55 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Import Prices MoM | 0.7 | -0.3 | 0.4 | 0.55 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Export Prices YoY | 8.6 | 8.1 | 8.5 | 8.55 | Low |
| 14:00 | US | Business Inventories MoM | 0.8 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.42 | Medium |
| 14:00 | US | NAHB Housing Market Index | 32 | 35 | 34 | 33.00 | Medium |
| 14:00 | US | Retail Inventories Ex Autos MoM | 0.8 | -0.5 | 0.7 | 0.72 | Low |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change | -0.64 | -0.391 | -1.6 | -2.28 | Medium |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Gasoline Stocks Change | 0.794 | 1.269 | -1 | -0.53 | Medium |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Distillate Stocks Change | 1.585 | 2.087 | 0.1 | 0.83 | Low |
| 16:00 | US | Atlanta Fed GDPNow | 5.1 | 4.4 | 4.4 | 4.63 | Medium |
| 20:00 | US | Net Long-Term TIC Flows | 172.7 | 146.3 | 160.35 | Medium | |