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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS Vehicle Sales YoY fell to -0.6% in January 2025
FMPMonthlyReleased February 2025
US Vehicle Sales YoY fell to -0.6% in January 2025, released February 2025, down 11.1% from December's 10.5% reading. The reading missed the 12.0% consensus by 12.6%.
Latest Release
-0.600000
Actual
12.000000
Consensus
10.500000
Previous
Sigmacast Track Record
Sigmacast track record will appear here once this indicator has been released 3+ times since Sigmanomics began tracking.
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.50 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.45 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.40 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.35 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | CRYPTO | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Vehicle Sales YoY (United States) was reported at -0.6% in January 2025. This missed the market consensus of 12% by 12.6%. The reading fell from the previous value of 10.5%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with S&P 500 (Bullish Stocks). A secondary relationship exists with EUR/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish EUR).
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Oct 9) and CFTC S&P 500 speculative net positions (Oct 9).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update February 2025.
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Vehicle Sales YoY - US
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About Vehicle Sales YoY — United States
DEFINITION
Vehicle Sales YoY (Year-over-Year) is a financial indicator that measures the percentage change in the number of vehicles sold by a company or industry compared to the same period in the previous year. This metric is used to assess the growth or decline in vehicle sales and can provide valuable insights into the overall performance and trends of the automotive market. It is a key indicator for investors, analysts, and businesses in the automotive industry to make informed decisions and evaluate the health of the market.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT'S NEXT
This indicator correlates most strongly with S&P 500 (Bullish Stocks, r=0.50) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Thursday, October 8, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:30 | US | Continuing Jobless Claims | 1716 | 1699 | 1710 | 1713.00 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Jobless Claims 4-Week Average | 198 | 200.5 | 198 | 198.00 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Initial Jobless Claims | 197 | 199 | 200 | 198.50 | High |
| 14:00 | US | Wholesale Inventories MoM | 0.5 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.60 | Low |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change | 85 | 64 | 79 | 82.00 | Low |
| 15:15 | US | Atlanta Fed GDPNow | 3.6 | 3.7 | 3.7 | 3.65 | Medium |
| Friday, October 9, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 14:00 | US | Michigan Consumer Sentiment | 48.1 | 47.6 | 47.60 | High | |
| 14:00 | US | Michigan 5 Year Inflation Expectations | 3.4 | 3.5 | 3.50 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | Michigan Consumer Expectations | 46.3 | 45.9 | 45.90 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | Michigan Current Conditions | 50.9 | 50.5 | 50.50 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | Michigan 1 Year Inflation Expectations | 4.6 | 4.7 | 4.70 | Low | |
| Monday, October 12, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 18:00 | US | Budget Balance | -167 | 210 | 217.90 | Medium | |
| Tuesday, October 13, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 10:00 | US | NFIB Business Optimism Index | 98.7 | 96 | 96.80 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | Existing Home Sales MoM | -2 | -0.3 | -0.30 | High | |
| 14:00 | US | Existing Home Sales | 3.98 | 3.97 | 3.97 | High | |
| 15:30 | US | 3-Month Bill Auction | 4.05 | 4.009 | 4.01 | Low | |
| 18:00 | US | Budget Balance | -167 | 210 | 217.90 | Medium | |