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Data from U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS Long-Term Unemployed (27+ weeks) fell to 1,771 Thousands in June 2026
U.S. Bureau of Labor StatisticsMonthlyReleased July 2026
US Long-Term Unemployed (27+ weeks) fell to 1,771 Thousands in June 2026, released July 2026, down 166 Thousands from May's 1,937 Thousands reading.
Latest Release
1771.000000
Actual
—
Consensus
1937.000000
Previous
Sigmacast Track Record
Sigmacast track record will appear here once this indicator has been released 3+ times since Sigmanomics began tracking.
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD/CAD | ▼ Inverse | −0.69 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| USD/CHF | ▼ Inverse | −0.43 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| AUD/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.43 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.37 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.29 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Long-Term Unemployed (27+ weeks) (United States) was reported at 1,771.00 Thousands in June 2026. The reading fell from the previous value of 1,937.00 Thousands. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 1,873.50 Thousands, ranging from 1,771.00 Thousands to 1,988.00 Thousands across 10 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 1,898.67 Thousands, up from the prior three at 1,851.00 Thousands. Volatility over the past year (σ 68.31 Thousands) is lower than the prior year (σ 140.21 Thousands). In July readings over the past 3 years, Long-Term Unemployed (27+ weeks) has averaged 1,710.00 Thousands.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with USD/CAD (Bearish USD). A secondary relationship exists with USD/CHF, negatively correlated (Bearish USD).
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Chicago PMI (Aug 28) and Michigan 1 Year Inflation Expectations (Aug 28).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
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Long-Term Unemployed (27+ weeks) - US
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About Long-Term Unemployed (27+ weeks) — United States
DEFINITION
US Long-Term Unemployed (27+ weeks) fell to 1771K in July, down from June’s 1937K, marking a notable decline. The decrease from 1937K to 1771K signals a reduction in prolonged joblessness. Market focus will remain on upcoming labor data for further clarity on employment trends. Updated 8/13/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jul 2026): actual 1,771 Thousands. Prior reading (Jun 2026): 1,937 Thousands. Before that (May 2026): 1,988 Thousands.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with USD/CAD (Bearish USD, r=-0.69) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
Σ
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Thursday, August 27, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:30 | US | Jobless Claims 4-Week Average | 205.5 | 204.25 | 203 | 204.25 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Initial Jobless Claims | 203 | 207 | 208 | 205.50 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Goods Trade Balance Adv | -118.8 | -101.41 | -99 | -102.92 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Inventories Ex Autos MoM | 0.7 | -0.5 | 0 | 0.27 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Wholesale Inventories MoM | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.38 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Continuing Jobless Claims | 1778 | 1796 | 1790 | 1784.00 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Goods Trade Balance | -118.8 | -101.41 | -99 | -102.88 | High |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change | 15 | 16 | 20 | 17.50 | Low |
| 15:00 | US | Kansas Fed Manufacturing Index | 17 | 17 | 14 | 15.50 | Low |
| 15:00 | US | Kansas Fed Composite Index | 10 | 9 | 8 | 9.00 | Low |
| Friday, August 28, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 13:45 | US | Chicago PMI | 57.6 | 57 | 63.10 | Medium | |
| 14:00 | US | Michigan 1 Year Inflation Expectations | 4.2 | 4.3 | 4.30 | Medium | |
| 14:00 | US | Michigan Inflation Expectations | 4.3 | 4.2 | 4.3 | 4.30 | Low |
| 14:00 | US | Michigan 5 Year Inflation Expectations | 3.3 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 3.30 | Low |
| 14:00 | US | Michigan Consumer Sentiment | 51 | 55.2 | 51 | 51.00 | High |
| 14:00 | US | Michigan Consumer Expectations | 50.6 | 55.4 | 50.6 | 50.60 | Low |
| 14:00 | US | Michigan Current Conditions | 51.8 | 54.8 | 51.8 | 51.80 | Low |
| 15:00 | US | Kansas Fed Manufacturing Index | 17 | 14 | 15.50 | Low | |
| 15:00 | US | Kansas Fed Composite Index | 9 | 8 | 9.00 | Low | |