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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS Philly Fed Employment fell to -6 in August 2023
FMPMonthlyReleased August 2023
US Philly Fed Employment fell to -6 in August 2023, down 5 from July's -1 reading. The reading missed the -0.7 consensus by 5.3. Philly Fed Employment has now declined for 3 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Philly Fed Employment averaged -0.7, vs -6.37 in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 10th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
-6
Actual
-0.7
Consensus
-1
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±4.25
across last 5 releases
Last Call
Aug 2023
Predicted: 1.18
Actual: -6
Error: +7.17
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AAPL | ▲ Direct | +0.68 | STOCKS | Moves with | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.47 | CRYPTO | Moves against | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.42 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.39 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
| GOOGL | ▼ Inverse | −0.32 | STOCKS | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Philly Fed Employment (United States) was reported at 10.00 in July 2026. The reading rose from the previous value of 7.90. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through July 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 5.39, ranging from -2.80 to 12.90 across 11 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 5.03, up from the prior three at 3.07. Volatility over the past year (σ 4.64) is lower than the prior year (σ 8.51). In July readings over the past 3 years, Philly Fed Employment has averaged 11.83.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with AAPL (Bullish AAPL). A secondary relationship exists with BTC/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish BTC).
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for August 20, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Existing Home Sales MoM (Aug 11) and Existing Home Sales (Aug 11).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
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Philly Fed Employment - US
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About Philly Fed Employment — United States
DEFINITION
The Philly Fed Employment is a financial indicator that measures the employment trends in the Philadelphia region. It is based on a survey of businesses in the area and provides valuable insights into the health of the local job market. This indicator is closely monitored by economists and investors as it can indicate the overall economic growth and potential investment opportunities in the region. A positive reading suggests an increase in employment, while a negative reading may indicate a decline in job opportunities. The Philly Fed Employment is a key tool for assessing the economic outlook of the Philadelphia area and can be used to inform business decisions and investment strategies.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jul 2026): actual 10. Prior reading (Jun 2026): 7.9. Before that (May 2026): -2.8.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with AAPL (Bullish AAPL, r=0.68) — a useful reference for stocks-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Tuesday, August 11, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10:00 | US | NFIB Business Optimism Index | 97.4 | 97.8 | 97.70 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | Existing Home Sales MoM | -2.4 | -0.7 | -1.65 | Medium | |
| 14:00 | US | Existing Home Sales | 4.09 | 4.07 | 4.05 | High | |
| Wednesday, August 12, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Core Inflation Rate MoM | 0 | 0.2 | 0.25 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Inflation Rate MoM | -0.4 | 0.1 | 0.10 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Inflation Rate YoY | 3.5 | 3.4 | 3.45 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Core Inflation Rate YoY | 2.6 | 2.5 | 2.55 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | CPI | 333.95 | 334.03 | 334.39 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | CPI s.a | 332.568 | 332.6 | 332.85 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Core CPI YoY | 2.6 | 2.5 | 2.50 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | CPI YoY | 3.5 | 3.4 | 3.45 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | CPI MoM | -0.4 | 0.1 | 0.10 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Core CPI MoM | 0 | 0.2 | 0.20 | High | |
| 18:00 | US | Monthly Budget Statement | -120 | -294.6 | -297.10 | Medium | |
| 18:00 | US | Budget Balance | -120 | -294.6 | -265.70 | Medium | |
| Thursday, August 13, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Continuing Jobless Claims | 1801 | 1799 | 1799.00 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Initial Jobless Claims | 199 | 198 | 198.00 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Core PPI YoY | 4.7 | 4.7 | 5.15 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Core PPI MoM | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.55 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Producer Price Index MoM | -0.3 | 0.1 | 0.55 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Jobless Claims 4-Week Average | 198.75 | 197 | 197.00 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | PPI Ex Food, Energy and Trade YoY | 5.1 | 5.1 | 5.45 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | PPI Ex Food, Energy and Trade MoM | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.25 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Producer Price Index | 156.566 | 156.41 | 157.36 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Producer Price Index YoY | 5.5 | 5 | 5.55 | Low | |