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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS Philly Fed Employment fell to -6 in August 2023
FMPMonthlyReleased August 2023
US Philly Fed Employment fell to -6 in August 2023, down 5 from July's -1 reading. The reading missed the -0.7 consensus by 5.3. Philly Fed Employment has now declined for 3 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Philly Fed Employment averaged -0.7, vs -6.37 in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 10th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
-6
Actual
-0.7
Consensus
-1
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±4.25
across last 5 releases
Last Call
Aug 2023
Predicted: 1.18
Actual: -6
Error: +7.17
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
THE RELEASE
Philly Fed Employment (United States) was reported at 27.90 in August 2026. The reading rose from the previous value of 10.00. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through August 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 7.39, ranging from -2.80 to 27.90 across 11 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 15.27, up from the prior three at -1.10. Volatility over the past year (σ 7.97) is comparable than the prior year (σ 7.75). In August readings over the past 3 years, Philly Fed Employment has averaged 9.37.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with BTC/USD (Bullish BTC).
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for September 17, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include OPEC Monthly Report (Sep 10) and Initial Jobless Claims (Sep 10).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update August 2026.
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Philly Fed Employment - US
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About Philly Fed Employment — United States
DEFINITION
The Philly Fed Employment is a financial indicator that measures the employment trends in the Philadelphia region. It is based on a survey of businesses in the area and provides valuable insights into the health of the local job market. This indicator is closely monitored by economists and investors as it can indicate the overall economic growth and potential investment opportunities in the region. A positive reading suggests an increase in employment, while a negative reading may indicate a decline in job opportunities. The Philly Fed Employment is a key tool for assessing the economic outlook of the Philadelphia area and can be used to inform business decisions and investment strategies.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Aug 2026): actual 27.9. Prior reading (Jul 2026): 10. Before that (Jun 2026): 7.9.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Wednesday, September 9, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21:00 | US | API Crude Oil Stock Change | -0.3 | -2.6 | -1.3 | -0.80 | Medium |
| Thursday, September 10, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | PPI Ex Food, Energy and Trade YoY | 4.7 | 4.4 | 4.75 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Producer Price Index | 156.563 | 157 | 157.08 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Core PPI YoY | 4.2 | 4.6 | 4.35 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Continuing Jobless Claims | 1779 | 1780 | 1787.50 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Initial Jobless Claims | 206 | 205 | 210.00 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Core PPI MoM | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.25 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Producer Price Index MoM | 0 | 0.4 | 0.60 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Producer Price Index YoY | 4.7 | 5.3 | 5.35 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | PPI Ex Food, Energy and Trade MoM | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.55 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Jobless Claims 4-Week Average | 207.25 | 206 | 207.25 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | Existing Home Sales | 4.06 | 3.98 | 3.98 | High | |
| 14:00 | US | Existing Home Sales MoM | -1.7 | -0.2 | -0.20 | Medium | |
| Friday, September 11, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Inflation Rate YoY | 3.4 | 3.4 | 3.40 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | CPI s.a | 332.81 | 334.14 | 334.14 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Core Inflation Rate MoM | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.20 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Core Inflation Rate YoY | 2.5 | 2.4 | 2.40 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Inflation Rate MoM | 0.1 | 0.4 | 0.40 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | CPI | 333.92 | 334.85 | 334.85 | Medium | |
| 14:00 | US | Michigan Current Conditions | 51.9 | 51.3 | 52.40 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | Michigan Consumer Expectations | 51.5 | 50.5 | 53.00 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | Michigan 5 Year Inflation Expectations | 3.3 | 3.2 | 3.00 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | Michigan Consumer Sentiment | 51.7 | 51 | 52.45 | High | |
| 14:00 | US | Michigan Inflation Expectations | 4 | 3.9 | 3.80 | Low | |
| 18:00 | US | Monthly Budget Statement | -432 | -480 | -480.00 | Medium | |
| 18:00 | US | Budget Balance | -432 | -202.5 | -202.50 | Medium | |