United StatesUS Philly Fed Employment fell to -6 in August 2023
US Philly Fed Employment fell to -6 in August 2023, down 5 from July's -1 reading. The reading missed the -0.7 consensus by 5.3. Philly Fed Employment has now declined for 3 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Philly Fed Employment averaged -0.7, vs -6.37 in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 10th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
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Forecasts generated by Sigmanomics engine. Not financial advice.
Median Absolute Error
across last 5 releases
Last Call
Aug 2023
Method: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GOOGL | ▼ Inverse | −0.42 | STOCKS | Moves against | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.29 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
| GBP/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.26 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Philly Fed Employment (United States) was reported at 9.10 in October 2026. The reading fell from the previous value of 11.80. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 8.36, ranging from -2.80 to 27.90 across 11 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 16.27, up from the prior three at 5.03. Volatility over the past year (σ 7.98) is higher than the prior year (σ 7.24). In October readings over the past 3 years, Philly Fed Employment has averaged 3.83.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with GOOGL (Bearish GOOGL).
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for November 19, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Fed Schmid Speech (Nov 10) and Fed Bowman Speech (Nov 10).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
Philly Fed Employment - US
About Philly Fed Employment — United States
DEFINITION
The Philly Fed Employment is a financial indicator that measures the employment trends in the Philadelphia region. It is based on a survey of businesses in the area and provides valuable insights into the health of the local job market. This indicator is closely monitored by economists and investors as it can indicate the overall economic growth and potential investment opportunities in the region. A positive reading suggests an increase in employment, while a negative reading may indicate a decline in job opportunities. The Philly Fed Employment is a key tool for assessing the economic outlook of the Philadelphia area and can be used to inform business decisions and investment strategies.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Oct 2026): actual 9.1. Prior reading (Sep 2026): 11.8. Before that (Aug 2026, first reported): 27.9.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast is 8.8 (latest print -6). The 3-month forecast is 8.2. The projection is based on the indicator's own recent trend. This indicator correlates most strongly with GOOGL (Bearish GOOGL, r=-0.42) — a useful reference for stocks-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Monday, November 9, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15:00 | US | Wholesale Inventories MoM | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.65 | Low |
| 15:00 | US | Wholesale Sales MoM | 2.8 | 2 | 1.1 | 1.95 | Low |
| 16:00 | US | Consumer Inflation Expectation | 3.9 | 3.9 | 3.8 | 3.85 | Low |
| 16:30 | US | 3-Month Bill Auction | 4.06 | 4.04 | 4.009 | 4.03 | Low |
| Tuesday, November 10, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 11:00 | US | NFIB Business Optimism Index | 97.8 | 97.9 | 97.7 | 98.30 | Low |
| 13:30 | US | CPI s.a | 337.48 | 336.3 | 337 | 337.17 | High |
| 13:30 | US | Inflation Rate MoM | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.33 | High |
| 13:30 | US | Core Inflation Rate MoM | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.23 | High |
| 13:30 | US | CPI | 337.51 | 336.94 | 337.02 | 337.13 | High |
| 13:55 | US | Redbook YoY | 10.1 | 10.4 | 9.3 | 9.70 | Low |
| 21:30 | US | API Crude Oil Stock Change | -5.267 | -1 | 3.79 | Medium | |
| Wednesday, November 11, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 19:00 | US | Budget Balance | -27 | -298 | -339.85 | Medium | |