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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS Philly Fed Employment fell to -6 in August 2023
FMPMonthlyReleased August 2023
US Philly Fed Employment fell to -6 in August 2023, down 5 from July's -1 reading. The reading missed the -0.7 consensus by 5.3. Philly Fed Employment has now declined for 3 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Philly Fed Employment averaged -0.7, vs -6.37 in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 10th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
-6
Actual
-0.7
Consensus
-1
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±4.25
across last 5 releases
Last Call
Aug 2023
Predicted: 1.18
Actual: -6
Error: +7.17
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GOOGL | ▼ Inverse | −0.43 | STOCKS | Moves against | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.27 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Philly Fed Employment (United States) was reported at 11.80 in September 2026. The reading fell from the previous value of 27.90. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through September 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 7.95, ranging from -2.80 to 27.90 across 11 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 16.57, up from the prior three at 1.97. Volatility over the past year (σ 8.04) is comparable than the prior year (σ 7.67). In September readings over the past 3 years, Philly Fed Employment has averaged 9.37.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with GOOGL (Bearish GOOGL).
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for October 15, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate (Sep 23) and S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Sep 23).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update September 2026.
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Philly Fed Employment - US
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About Philly Fed Employment — United States
DEFINITION
The Philly Fed Employment is a financial indicator that measures the employment trends in the Philadelphia region. It is based on a survey of businesses in the area and provides valuable insights into the health of the local job market. This indicator is closely monitored by economists and investors as it can indicate the overall economic growth and potential investment opportunities in the region. A positive reading suggests an increase in employment, while a negative reading may indicate a decline in job opportunities. The Philly Fed Employment is a key tool for assessing the economic outlook of the Philadelphia area and can be used to inform business decisions and investment strategies.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Sep 2026): actual 11.8. Prior reading (Aug 2026): 27.9. Before that (Jul 2026): 10.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with GOOGL (Bearish GOOGL, r=-0.43) — a useful reference for stocks-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Tuesday, September 22, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14:00 | US | Richmond Fed Manufacturing Shipments Index | -5 | 11 | 9 | 2.00 | Low |
| 14:00 | US | Richmond Fed Services Index | 0 | -8 | -6 | -3.00 | Low |
| 14:00 | US | Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index | -2 | 4 | 5 | 1.50 | Low |
| 20:30 | US | API Crude Oil Stock Change | 1.786 | 7.14 | -0.5 | 0.64 | Medium |
| 21:00 | US | API Crude Oil Stock Change | 1.786 | 7.14 | -0.5 | 0.64 | Medium |
| Wednesday, September 23, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 13:45 | US | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI | 53.9 | 53.6 | 53.60 | Medium | |
| 13:45 | US | S&P Global Composite PMI | 56 | 55.2 | 55.20 | Medium | |
| 13:45 | US | S&P Global Services PMI | 56.5 | 56 | 56.00 | Medium | |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change | -0.64 | -0.6 | -0.60 | Medium | |
| Thursday, September 24, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Initial Jobless Claims | 196 | 201 | 196.00 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Current Account | -226.8 | -255 | -255.00 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Jobless Claims 4-Week Average | 203.25 | 203 | 202.13 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Continuing Jobless Claims | 1730 | 1750 | 1760.50 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Building Permits MoM | -2.7 | 4.3 | -2.7 | -2.70 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Building Permits | 1.394 | 1.433 | 1.394 | 1.39 | Low |
| 14:00 | US | New Home Sales | 0.607 | 0.62 | 0.62 | High | |
| 15:00 | US | Kansas Fed Manufacturing Index | 17 | 9 | 15.00 | Low | |
| 15:00 | US | Kansas Fed Composite Index | 10 | 5 | 7.50 | Low | |
| Friday, September 25, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Durable Goods Orders Ex Transp MoM | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.95 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Non Defense Goods Orders Ex Air | 0.2 | 0.5 | 1.00 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Durable Goods Orders MoM | 1.1 | -0.4 | -0.40 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Durable Goods Orders Ex Defense MoM | 1.3 | -0.6 | -0.95 | High | |
| 14:00 | US | Michigan Consumer Sentiment | 47.8 | 51.7 | 47.6 | 47.70 | High |
| 14:00 | US | Michigan 5 Year Inflation Expectations | 3.4 | 3.3 | 3.4 | 3.40 | Low |
| 14:00 | US | Michigan Current Conditions | 50.9 | 51.9 | 49.5 | 50.20 | Low |
| 14:00 | US | Michigan Inflation Expectations | 4.6 | 4 | 4.6 | 4.60 | Low |
| 14:00 | US | Michigan Consumer Expectations | 45.8 | 51.5 | 45.8 | 45.80 | Low |
| 17:00 | US | Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count | 452 | 453 | 453.00 | Low | |