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US 42-Day Bill Auction climbed to 4.27% in January 2025, released February 2025, up 0.01% from December's 4.26% reading.
Sigmacast track record will appear here once this indicator has been released 3+ times since Sigmanomics began tracking.
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.50 | INDEX | Bullish Stocks | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.45 | FOREX | Bearish EUR | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.40 | FOREX | Bullish USD | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.35 | COMMODITIES | Bearish Gold | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | CRYPTO | Watch | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
42-Day Bill Auction (United States) was reported at 4.27% in February 2025. The reading rose from the previous value of 4.26%.
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 4.26%, up from the prior three at 4.25%. In February readings over the past 3 years, 42-Day Bill Auction has averaged 4.26%.
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with S&P 500 (Bullish Stocks). A secondary relationship exists with EUR/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish EUR).
Same-country events in the next 14 days include MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate (Jun 17) and Retail Sales MoM (Jun 17).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update February 2025.
The 42-Day Bill Auction is a financial indicator that measures the demand for short-term government debt securities with a maturity of 42 days. This auction allows the government to raise funds by selling these bills to investors, providing insight into the current market sentiment and interest rates. It is often used as a gauge of investor confidence and can impact overall market conditions.
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
Latest reading (Feb 2025): actual 4.27 %. Prior reading (Feb 2025): 4.25 %. Before that (Jan 2025): 4.26 %.
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with S&P 500 (Bullish Stocks, r=0.50) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
Multi-horizon symbol forecasts, Rolling-Surprise economic predictions, and programmatic API access.
Expected Zones · Trade Bias · Confidence Intervals · API Access · 1,456+ instruments
| Tuesday, June 16, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:30 | Building Permits MoM | -0.7 | 4.4 | -0.6 | -0.45 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | Building Permits | 1.413 | 1.423 | 1.42 | 1.42 | High | |
| 12:30 | Import Prices YoY | 6.7 | 4.2 | 6 | 6.35 | Low | |
| 12:30 | Housing Starts MoM | -15.4 | -8.5 | -2 | -8.70 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | Housing Starts | 1.177 | 1.392 | 1.43 | 1.30 | High | |
| 12:30 | Export Prices YoY | 11.2 | 8.8 | 10.4 | 10.80 | Low | |
| 12:30 | Import Prices MoM | 1.9 | 2 | 1 | 1.45 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | Export Prices MoM | 1.3 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 1.25 | Medium | |
| 16:00 | Atlanta Fed GDPNow | 2.8 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 3.07 | Medium | |
| 20:30 | API Crude Oil Stock Change | -8.33 | -9.119 | -4.5 | -6.42 | Medium | |
| Wednesday, June 17, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | Retail Sales MoM | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.50 | High | ||
| 12:30 | Retail Sales Ex Gas/Autos MoM | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.50 | Low | ||
| 12:30 | Retail Sales YoY | 4.9 | 4 | 4.00 | Low | ||
| 12:30 | Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.50 | Medium | ||
| 14:00 | Business Inventories MoM | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.50 | Medium | ||
| 14:00 | Pending Home Sales YoY | 3.2 | 3 | 3.00 | Medium | ||
| 14:00 | Pending Home Sales MoM | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.80 | Medium | ||
| 14:00 | Retail Inventories Ex Autos MoM | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.60 | Low | ||
| 14:30 | EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change | -7.228 | -4.6 | -1.72 | Medium | ||
| 14:30 | EIA Gasoline Stocks Change | 0.186 | -1 | -2.92 | Medium | ||
| 14:30 | EIA Distillate Stocks Change | -0.2 | -0.5 | -1.01 | Low | ||
| 18:00 | Fed Interest Rate Decision | 3.75 | 3.75 | 3.75 | High | ||
| Thursday, June 18, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | Continuing Jobless Claims | 1795 | 1800 | 1803.50 | Low | ||
| 12:30 | Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index | -0.4 | 10 | 14.05 | Medium | ||
| 12:30 | Jobless Claims 4-Week Average | 219 | 223 | 221.50 | Low | ||
| 12:30 | Initial Jobless Claims | 229 | 225 | 220.00 | Medium | ||
| 14:00 | Leading Index MoM | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.10 | Medium | ||
| 20:00 | Net Long-Term TIC Flows | 81.3 | 75 | 46.95 | Medium | ||