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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS CFTC S&P 500 speculative net positions fell to -133.2K in August 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased September 2026
US CFTC S&P 500 speculative net positions fell to -133.2K in August 2026, released September 2026, down 32.7K from July's -100.5K reading.
Latest Release
-133.200000
Actual
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Consensus
-100.500000
Previous
Sigmacast Track Record
Sigmacast track record will appear here once this indicator has been released 3+ times since Sigmanomics began tracking.
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
THE RELEASE
CFTC S&P 500 speculative net positions (United States) was reported at -133 thousand in August 2026. The reading fell from the previous value of -101 thousand. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged -122 thousand, ranging from -221 thousand to 11 thousand across 38 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged -103 thousand, down from the prior three at -52 thousand. Volatility over the past year (σ 55 thousand) is lower than the prior year (σ 80 thousand). In September readings over the past 3 years, CFTC S&P 500 speculative net positions has averaged -140 thousand.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for October 2, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Fed Bowman Speech (Sep 28) and Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index (Sep 28).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update September 2026.
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CFTC S&P 500 speculative net positions - US
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About CFTC S&P 500 speculative net positions — United States
DEFINITION
US CFTC S&P 500 speculative net positions deepened to -133.200K in September, extending the bearish trend from August's -100.500K. The net short positions increased significantly from August to September, indicating growing speculative pessimism. Market participants remain cautious ahead of upcoming economic data and central bank communications. Updated 9/25/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Sep 2026): actual -133.2 K. Prior reading (Sep 2026): -100.5 K. Before that (Sep 2026): -76 K.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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