United StatesUS MBA Mortgage Refinance Index climbed to 517.5 Points in October 2026
US MBA Mortgage Refinance Index climbed to 517.5 Points in October 2026, released November 2026, up 0.7 Points from September's 516.8 Points reading.
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Forecasts generated by Sigmanomics engine. Not financial advice.
Sigmacast Track Record
Sigmacast track record will appear here once this indicator has been released 3+ times since Sigmanomics began tracking.
Method: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
THE RELEASE
MBA Mortgage Refinance Index (United States) was reported at 517.50 Points in November 2026. The reading rose from the previous value of 516.80 Points. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through November 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 951.68 Points, ranging from 503.10 Points to 1,646.30 Points across 40 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 512.47 Points, down from the prior three at 529.03 Points. Volatility over the past year (σ 321.00 Points) is higher than the prior year (σ 279.12 Points). In November readings over the past 3 years, MBA Mortgage Refinance Index has averaged 698.43 Points.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for November 11, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Fed Schmid Speech (Nov 10) and Fed Bowman Speech (Nov 10).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update November 2026.
MBA Mortgage Refinance Index - US
About MBA Mortgage Refinance Index — United States
DEFINITION
The MBA Mortgage Refinance Index is a widely recognized financial indicator that measures the volume of mortgage refinancing applications in the United States. It provides valuable insights into the current state of the housing market and consumer sentiment towards refinancing their existing mortgages. This index is used by financial institutions, economists, and investors to track trends and make informed decisions in the mortgage and real estate industries.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Housing data leads broader economic cycles by several months and is highly rate-sensitive, with knock-on effects to construction, materials, and consumer credit. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Nov 2026): actual 517.5 Points. Prior reading (Oct 2026): 516.8 Points. Before that (Oct 2026, first reported): 503.1 Points.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast is 518.83 Points (latest print 517.5 Points). The 3-month forecast is 521.5 Points. The projection is based on the indicator's own recent trend.
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Monday, November 9, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15:00 | US | Wholesale Inventories MoM | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.65 | Low |
| 15:00 | US | Wholesale Sales MoM | 2.8 | 2 | 1.1 | 1.95 | Low |
| 16:00 | US | Consumer Inflation Expectation | 3.9 | 3.9 | 3.8 | 3.85 | Low |
| 16:30 | US | 3-Month Bill Auction | 4.06 | 4.04 | 4.009 | 4.03 | Low |
| Tuesday, November 10, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 11:00 | US | NFIB Business Optimism Index | 97.8 | 97.9 | 97.7 | 98.30 | Low |
| 13:30 | US | CPI s.a | 337.48 | 336.3 | 337 | 337.17 | High |
| 13:30 | US | Inflation Rate MoM | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.33 | High |
| 13:30 | US | Core Inflation Rate MoM | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.23 | High |
| 13:30 | US | CPI | 337.51 | 336.94 | 337.02 | 337.13 | High |
| 13:55 | US | Redbook YoY | 10.1 | 10.4 | 9.3 | 9.70 | Low |
| 21:30 | US | API Crude Oil Stock Change | -5.267 | -1 | 3.79 | Medium | |
| Wednesday, November 11, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 19:00 | US | Budget Balance | -27 | -298 | -339.85 | Medium | |