Loading page content
Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS MBA Mortgage Refinance Index fell to 557.8 Points in September 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased September 2026
US MBA Mortgage Refinance Index fell to 557.8 Points in September 2026, down 53.2 Points from August's 611 Points reading.
Latest Release
557.800000
Actual
—
Consensus
611.000000
Previous
Sigmacast Track Record
Sigmacast track record will appear here once this indicator has been released 3+ times since Sigmanomics began tracking.
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
THE RELEASE
MBA Mortgage Refinance Index (United States) was reported at 557.80 Points in September 2026. The reading fell from the previous value of 611.00 Points. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through September 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 1,042.05 Points, ranging from 557.80 Points to 1,646.30 Points across 40 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 598.63 Points, down from the prior three at 720.23 Points. Volatility over the past year (σ 285.43 Points) is higher than the prior year (σ 242.68 Points). In September readings over the past 3 years, MBA Mortgage Refinance Index has averaged 916.98 Points.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for October 7, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Oct 6) and Fed Schmid Speech (Oct 6).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update September 2026.
SHARE
MBA Mortgage Refinance Index - US
Loading chart data...
About MBA Mortgage Refinance Index — United States
DEFINITION
The MBA Mortgage Refinance Index is a widely recognized financial indicator that measures the volume of mortgage refinancing applications in the United States. It provides valuable insights into the current state of the housing market and consumer sentiment towards refinancing their existing mortgages. This index is used by financial institutions, economists, and investors to track trends and make informed decisions in the mortgage and real estate industries.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Housing data leads broader economic cycles by several months and is highly rate-sensitive, with knock-on effects to construction, materials, and consumer credit. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Sep 2026): actual 557.8 Points. Prior reading (Sep 2026): 611 Points. Before that (Sep 2026): 627.1 Points.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection.
Σ
EXPECTED ZONE
SIGMANOMICS MARKET FORECAST ENGINE
Multi-horizon symbol forecasts, Rolling-Surprise economic predictions, and programmatic API access.
Expected Zones · Trade Bias · Confidence Intervals · API Access · 1,456+ instruments
FOREXCRYPTOSTOCKSCOMMODITIESINDICESAPI
BLSBEAFMPWORLD BANKFRED
1,456+ instruments247 indicators530+ correlationsREST + GQL API
4,151 economic indicators127 countries covered6 data sources
FREDBLSEIAECBBOJFMP
Economic Calendar - US Events
| Monday, October 5, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13:45 | US | S&P Global Services PMI | 58.8 | 56.5 | 58.7 | 58.75 | Low |
| 13:45 | US | S&P Global Composite PMI | 58.4 | 56 | 58.4 | 58.40 | Low |
| 14:00 | US | ISM Services Prices | 74 | 72.6 | 72.9 | 73.45 | Low |
| 14:00 | US | ISM Services PMI | 54.9 | 55.4 | 55 | 54.95 | High |
| 14:00 | US | ISM Services New Orders | 59.8 | 60.9 | 60.3 | 60.05 | Low |
| 14:00 | US | ISM Services Business Activity | 56.5 | 61.7 | 61.5 | 59.00 | Low |
| 14:00 | US | ISM Services Employment | 50.1 | 47.8 | 48 | 49.05 | Low |
| 15:30 | US | 3-Month Bill Auction | 4.05 | 4.11 | 4.109 | 4.08 | Low |
| Tuesday, October 6, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Imports | 420.8 | 403.6 | 416.8 | 418.13 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Exports | 315.2 | 310.7 | 314.6 | 315.68 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Balance of Trade | -105.6 | -92.8 | -102 | -102.67 | Medium |
| 14:00 | US | Economic Optimism Index | 46.8 | 45.6 | 44.5 | 45.20 | Low |
| 15:00 | US | Atlanta Fed GDPNow | 3.7 | 3.7 | 3.7 | 3.70 | Medium |
| 15:30 | US | Atlanta Fed GDPNow | 3.7 | 3.7 | 3.7 | 3.70 | Medium |
| Wednesday, October 7, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 11:00 | US | MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate | 7.3 | 6 | 6.00 | Medium | |
| 15:00 | US | Consumer Inflation Expectation | 3.6 | 3.7 | 3.95 | Low | |
| 19:00 | US | Consumer Credit Change | 18.06 | 15 | 15.00 | Low | |