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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS Gross Domestic Product MoM climbed to 0.4% in January 2025
FMPMonthlyReleased February 2025
US Gross Domestic Product MoM climbed to 0.4% in January 2025, released February 2025, up 0.3% from December's 0.1% reading. The print exceeded the 0.1% consensus by 0.3%.
Latest Release
0.400000
Actual
0.100000
Consensus
0.100000
Previous
Sigmacast Track Record
Sigmacast track record will appear here once this indicator has been released 3+ times since Sigmanomics began tracking.
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.50 | INDEX | Bullish Stocks | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.45 | FOREX | Bearish EUR | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.40 | FOREX | Bullish USD | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.35 | COMMODITIES | Bearish Gold | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | CRYPTO | Watch | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Gross Domestic Product MoM (United States) was reported at 0.4% in January 2025. This beat the market consensus of 0.1% by 0.3%. The reading rose from the previous value of 0.1%. This is classified as a high-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with S&P 500 (Bullish Stocks). A secondary relationship exists with EUR/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish EUR).
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate (Jun 17) and Retail Sales MoM (Jun 17).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update February 2025.
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Gross Domestic Product MoM - US
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About Gross Domestic Product MoM — United States
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Aggregate growth figures anchor cyclical positioning across asset classes and inform fiscal and monetary policy debate. Surprises against consensus typically move rates and currencies on release. Released monthly.
WHAT'S NEXT
This indicator correlates most strongly with S&P 500 (Bullish Stocks, r=0.50) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Tuesday, June 16, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:30 | US | Building Permits MoM | -0.7 | 4.4 | -0.6 | -0.45 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Building Permits | 1.413 | 1.423 | 1.42 | 1.42 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Import Prices YoY | 6.7 | 4.2 | 6 | 6.35 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Housing Starts MoM | -15.4 | -8.5 | -2 | -8.70 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Housing Starts | 1.177 | 1.392 | 1.43 | 1.30 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Export Prices YoY | 11.2 | 8.8 | 10.4 | 10.80 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Import Prices MoM | 1.9 | 2 | 1 | 1.45 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Export Prices MoM | 1.3 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 1.25 | Medium |
| 16:00 | US | Atlanta Fed GDPNow | 2.8 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 3.07 | Medium |
| 20:30 | US | API Crude Oil Stock Change | -8.33 | -9.119 | -4.5 | -6.42 | Medium |
| Wednesday, June 17, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales MoM | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.50 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales Ex Gas/Autos MoM | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.50 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales YoY | 4.9 | 4 | 4.00 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.50 | Medium | |
| 14:00 | US | Business Inventories MoM | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.50 | Medium | |
| 14:00 | US | Pending Home Sales YoY | 3.2 | 3 | 3.00 | Medium | |
| 14:00 | US | Pending Home Sales MoM | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.80 | Medium | |
| 14:00 | US | Retail Inventories Ex Autos MoM | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.60 | Low | |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change | -7.228 | -4.6 | -1.72 | Medium | |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Gasoline Stocks Change | 0.186 | -1 | -2.92 | Medium | |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Distillate Stocks Change | -0.2 | -0.5 | -1.01 | Low | |
| 18:00 | US | Fed Interest Rate Decision | 3.75 | 3.75 | 3.75 | High | |
| Thursday, June 18, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Continuing Jobless Claims | 1795 | 1800 | 1803.50 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index | -0.4 | 10 | 14.05 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Jobless Claims 4-Week Average | 219 | 223 | 221.50 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Initial Jobless Claims | 229 | 225 | 220.00 | Medium | |
| 14:00 | US | Leading Index MoM | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.10 | Medium | |
| 20:00 | US | Net Long-Term TIC Flows | 81.3 | 75 | 46.95 | Medium | |