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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS 10-Year Note Auction climbed to 4.83% in August 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased September 2026
US 10-Year Note Auction climbed to 4.83% in August 2026, released September 2026, up 0.15% from July's 4.68% reading.
Latest Release
4.834000
Actual
—
Consensus
4.683000
Previous
Sigmacast Track Record
Sigmacast track record will appear here once this indicator has been released 3+ times since Sigmanomics began tracking.
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AUD/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.64 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| USD/CAD | ▲ Direct | +0.60 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| NZD/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.54 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| AAPL | ▲ Direct | +0.47 | STOCKS | Moves with | → View |
| USD/CHF | ▲ Direct | +0.42 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
10-Year Note Auction (United States) was reported at 4.83% in September 2026. The reading rose from the previous value of 4.68%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through September 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 4.35%, ranging from 4.07% to 4.83% across 10 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 4.69%, up from the prior three at 4.29%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.25%) is higher than the prior year (σ 0.18%). In September readings over the past 3 years, 10-Year Note Auction has averaged 4.17%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with AUD/USD (Bearish AUD). A secondary relationship exists with USD/CAD, positively correlated (Bullish USD).
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for October 7, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Sep 15) and NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Sep 15).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update September 2026.
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10-Year Note Auction - US
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About 10-Year Note Auction — United States
DEFINITION
The 10-Year Note Auction is a financial indicator that measures the demand for 10-year government bonds. It is conducted by the US Treasury Department to raise funds for the government's borrowing needs. The results of the auction provide insight into investor sentiment and can impact interest rates and the overall economy. This indicator is closely monitored by financial analysts and investors as it reflects the current state of the bond market and the government's ability to borrow money.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Sep 2026): actual 4.834 %. Prior reading (Aug 2026): 4.683 %. Before that (Jun 2026): 4.538 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with AUD/USD (Bearish AUD, r=-0.64) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
Σ
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Monday, September 14, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15:30 | US | 3-Month Bill Auction | 3.8 | 3.809 | 3.81 | Low | |
| Tuesday, September 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | NY Empire State Manufacturing Index | 20.6 | 15 | 10.85 | High | |
| Wednesday, September 16, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales MoM | -0.4 | -0.1 | -0.10 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM | -0.3 | 0.5 | 0.50 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Import Prices YoY | 5.9 | 6 | 6.35 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales Ex Gas/Autos MoM | -0.2 | 0.1 | 0.10 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales YoY | 5 | 4.3 | 4.30 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Export Prices MoM | -1.3 | -0.5 | -0.45 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Import Prices MoM | -0.4 | 0.2 | 0.65 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Export Prices YoY | 8.2 | 7.5 | 7.90 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | Business Inventories MoM | 0 | 0.2 | 0.20 | Medium | |
| 14:00 | US | NAHB Housing Market Index | 35 | 34 | 33.50 | Medium | |
| 14:00 | US | Retail Inventories Ex Autos MoM | 0.7 | -0.5 | 0.7 | 0.70 | Low |
| 18:00 | US | Fed Interest Rate Decision | 3.75 | 4 | 4.00 | High | |
| 20:00 | US | Net Long-Term TIC Flows | 172.7 | 146.3 | 146.30 | Medium | |