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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY climbed to 3.1% in January 2025
FMPMonthlyReleased February 2025
US Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY climbed to 3.1% in January 2025, released February 2025, up 0.2% from December's 2.9% reading. The print came in hotter than the 2.8% consensus, a hotter print than forecasters anticipated.
Latest Release
3.100000
Actual
2.800000
Consensus
2.900000
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.2 percentage points
across last 3 releases
Last Call
Feb 2025
Predicted: 2.75
Actual: 3.1
Error: -0.35
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.50 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.45 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.40 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.35 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | CRYPTO | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY (United States) was reported at 3.1% in January 2025. This beat the market consensus of 2.8% by 0.3%. The reading rose from the previous value of 2.9%.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. In February readings over the past 3 years, Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY has averaged 2.77%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with S&P 500 (Bullish Stocks). A secondary relationship exists with EUR/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish EUR).
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Fed Hammack Speech (Oct 12) and Budget Balance (Oct 12).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update February 2025.
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Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY - US
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About Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY — United States
DEFINITION
The Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY is a key financial indicator that measures the annual change in the overall price level of goods and services in a country. It takes into account the impact of price changes on both domestic and international markets, providing a more comprehensive view of inflation. This indicator is widely used by policymakers and investors to assess the health of an economy and make informed decisions regarding monetary policy and investment strategies. A higher Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY indicates a rise in prices, while a lower rate suggests a decrease in inflation.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Inflation prints feed directly into central-bank policy expectations and real-yield calculations, and are among the most rate-sensitive releases on the calendar. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT'S NEXT
This indicator correlates most strongly with S&P 500 (Bullish Stocks, r=0.50) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Friday, October 9, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14:00 | US | Michigan Consumer Sentiment | 46.3 | 48.1 | 47.6 | 46.95 | High |
| 14:00 | US | Michigan 5 Year Inflation Expectations | 3.5 | 3.4 | 3.5 | 3.50 | Low |
| 14:00 | US | Michigan Consumer Expectations | 47.3 | 46.3 | 45.9 | 46.60 | Low |
| 14:00 | US | Michigan Current Conditions | 44.7 | 50.9 | 50.5 | 47.60 | Low |
| 14:00 | US | Michigan 1 Year Inflation Expectations | 4.7 | 4.6 | 4.7 | 4.70 | Low |
| Monday, October 12, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 18:00 | US | Budget Balance | -167 | 210 | 217.90 | Medium | |
| Tuesday, October 13, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 10:00 | US | NFIB Business Optimism Index | 98.7 | 98 | 98.80 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | Existing Home Sales MoM | -2 | -0.3 | -0.30 | High | |
| 14:00 | US | Existing Home Sales | 3.98 | 3.97 | 3.97 | High | |
| 15:30 | US | 3-Month Bill Auction | 4.05 | 4.009 | 4.01 | Low | |
| 18:00 | US | Budget Balance | -167 | 210 | 217.90 | Medium | |
| Wednesday, October 14, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Core Inflation Rate YoY | 2.4 | 2.5 | 2.40 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | CPI s.a | 334.131 | 335.8 | 335.08 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Inflation Rate YoY | 3.4 | 3.6 | 3.45 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Core Inflation Rate MoM | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.10 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Inflation Rate MoM | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.45 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | CPI | 334.98 | 336.8 | 336.43 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Inflation Rate | 334.98 | 336.5 | 336.50 | High | |