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Data from FRED. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS USD/EUR Exchange Rate held to 1.14 USD per EUR in July 2026
FREDDailyReleased July 2026
US USD/EUR Exchange Rate held to 1.14 USD per EUR in July 2026.
Latest Release
1.144800
Actual
—
Consensus
1.144800
Previous
Sigmacast Track Record
Sigmacast track record will appear here once this indicator has been released 3+ times since Sigmanomics began tracking.
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.79 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| USD/CHF | ▼ Inverse | −0.72 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| GBP/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.60 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| NZD/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.58 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| AUD/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.57 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
USD/EUR Exchange Rate (United States) was reported at 1.14 USD per EUR in July 2026. The reading was unchanged from the previous release. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 1.17 USD per EUR, ranging from 1.13 USD per EUR to 1.20 USD per EUR across 244 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a daily basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 1.14 USD per EUR, up from the prior three at 1.14 USD per EUR. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.01 USD per EUR) is lower than the prior year (σ 0.04 USD per EUR). In July readings over the past 3 years, USD/EUR Exchange Rate has averaged 1.12 USD per EUR.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with EUR/USD (Bullish EUR). A secondary relationship exists with USD/CHF, negatively correlated (Bearish USD).
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Inflation Rate YoY (Jul 14) and Core Inflation Rate YoY (Jul 14).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
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USD/EUR Exchange Rate - US
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About USD/EUR Exchange Rate — United States
DEFINITION
The US USD/EUR Exchange Rate reached 1.144800 on July 2, 2026, rising from June 30’s 1.1417 and June 29’s 1.1425, indicating a modest strengthening of the dollar against the euro. This marks a rebound from the June 23 low of 1.1383, reflecting increased dollar demand in early July. Market participants will watch for further currency moves amid ongoing monetary policy signals. Updated 7/7/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released daily.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jul 2026): actual 1.145 USD per EUR. Prior reading (Jul 2026): 1.138 USD per EUR. Before that (Jun 2026): 1.142 USD per EUR.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with EUR/USD (Bullish EUR, r=0.79) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
Σ
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Monday, July 13, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18:00 | US | Monthly Budget Statement | -120 | -293 | -132.8 | -126.40 | Medium |
| 18:00 | US | Budget Balance | -120 | -293 | -135.8 | -127.90 | Medium |
| Tuesday, July 14, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 10:00 | US | NFIB Business Optimism Index | 95.3 | 95.6 | 94.20 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Inflation Rate YoY | 4.2 | 3.8 | 3.80 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Core Inflation Rate YoY | 2.9 | 2.9 | 2.90 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | CPI s.a | 333.979 | 334 | 334.00 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Core Inflation Rate MoM | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.20 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | CPI | 335.12 | 334.71 | 334.71 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Inflation Rate MoM | 0.5 | -0.1 | -0.10 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | CPI MoM | 0.5 | -0.1 | -0.10 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | CPI YoY | 4.2 | 3.8 | 3.80 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Core CPI MoM | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.20 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Core CPI YoY | 2.9 | 2.9 | 2.90 | Medium | |
| 20:00 | US | Net Long-Term TIC Flows | 103.1 | 128 | 139.00 | Medium | |
| Wednesday, July 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Producer Price Index | 157.659 | 159.1 | 158.50 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Producer Price Index YoY | 6.5 | 7.2 | 6.90 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Core PPI YoY | 4.9 | 5.2 | 5.05 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Producer Price Index MoM | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.50 | High | |
| Thursday, July 16, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.40 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales YoY | 6.9 | 6.7 | 6.70 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales Ex Gas/Autos MoM | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.30 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales MoM | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.30 | High | |
| 14:00 | US | Pending Home Sales YoY | 4.8 | 1.3 | 1.30 | Medium | |
| Friday, July 17, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Import Prices YoY | 6.7 | 5.4 | 5.45 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Housing Starts | 1.177 | 1.2 | 1.20 | High | |
| 13:15 | US | Industrial Production YoY | 1.7 | 1.5 | 1.50 | Low | |
| 13:15 | US | Manufacturing Production YoY | 1.4 | 1 | 1.00 | Low | |
| 13:15 | US | Capacity Utilization | 76.2 | 76.7 | 76.70 | Low | |