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Data from FRED. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS USD/EUR Exchange Rate climbed to 1.12 USD per EUR in October 2026
FREDDailyReleased October 2026
US USD/EUR Exchange Rate climbed to 1.12 USD per EUR in October 2026, up 0.0 USD per EUR from September's 1.12 USD per EUR reading.
Latest Release
1.119300
Actual
—
Consensus
1.119200
Previous
Sigmacast Track Record
Sigmacast track record will appear here once this indicator has been released 3+ times since Sigmanomics began tracking.
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.72 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| USD/CHF | ▼ Inverse | −0.65 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| GBP/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.57 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| NZD/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.57 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| AUD/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.55 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
USD/EUR Exchange Rate (United States) was reported at 1.12 USD per EUR in October 2026. The reading rose from the previous value of 1.12 USD per EUR. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 1.16 USD per EUR, ranging from 1.12 USD per EUR to 1.20 USD per EUR across 249 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a daily basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 1.12 USD per EUR, down from the prior three at 1.12 USD per EUR. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.01 USD per EUR) is lower than the prior year (σ 0.05 USD per EUR). In October readings over the past 3 years, USD/EUR Exchange Rate has averaged 1.11 USD per EUR.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with EUR/USD (Bullish EUR). A secondary relationship exists with USD/CHF, negatively correlated (Bearish USD).
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Inflation Rate YoY (Oct 14) and Core Inflation Rate YoY (Oct 14).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
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USD/EUR Exchange Rate - US
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About USD/EUR Exchange Rate — United States
DEFINITION
The US USD/EUR Exchange Rate stood at 1.119300 on October 9, 2026, slightly above the previous close of 1.119200 on October 8. This marks a marginal increase from early October levels, which ranged around 1.1211 to 1.1262, indicating relative stability in the exchange rate. Market participants remain attentive to upcoming economic data and central bank communications for directional cues. Updated 10/14/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released daily.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Oct 2026): actual 1.119 USD per EUR. Prior reading (Oct 2026): 1.119 USD per EUR. Before that (Oct 2026): 1.119 USD per EUR.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with EUR/USD (Bullish EUR, r=0.72) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Tuesday, October 13, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10:00 | US | NFIB Business Optimism Index | 97.9 | 98.7 | 98 | 97.95 | Low |
| 14:00 | US | Existing Home Sales MoM | 1.5 | -3.2 | -0.3 | 0.60 | High |
| 14:00 | US | Existing Home Sales | 3.99 | 3.93 | 3.95 | 3.97 | High |
| 15:30 | US | 3-Month Bill Auction | 4.085 | 4.05 | 4.009 | 4.05 | Low |
| Wednesday, October 14, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 18:00 | US | Budget Balance | -167 | -29 | -29.00 | Medium | |
| Thursday, October 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Producer Price Index YoY | 5.4 | 5.3 | 5.30 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index | 37.8 | 28.4 | 42.60 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | NY Empire State Manufacturing Index | 7.6 | 10.3 | 10.30 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Core PPI YoY | 4.6 | 4.4 | 4.40 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Continuing Jobless Claims | 1716 | 1710 | 1702.50 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | PPI Ex Food, Energy and Trade YoY | 4.7 | 4.7 | 4.70 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Producer Price Index MoM | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.50 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | PPI Ex Food, Energy and Trade MoM | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.30 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Initial Jobless Claims | 197 | 200 | 195.50 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Producer Price Index | 157.411 | 159.1 | 159.10 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Jobless Claims 4-Week Average | 198 | 199 | 198.13 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Core PPI MoM | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.30 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales MoM | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.30 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.45 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales Ex Gas/Autos MoM | 1.2 | 0.2 | 0.25 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales YoY | 6 | 5.2 | 5.20 | High | |
| 13:30 | US | Retail Sales YoY | 6 | 5.2 | 5.20 | High | |
| 13:30 | US | Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.45 | High | |
| 13:30 | US | Retail Sales MoM | 1.2 | 0.1 | 0.10 | High | |
| 13:30 | US | Retail Sales Ex Gas/Autos MoM | 1.2 | 0.2 | 0.25 | High | |
| 14:00 | US | Business Inventories MoM | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.40 | Medium | |