Loading page content
Data from FRED. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS USD/EUR Exchange Rate held to 1.17 USD per EUR in August 2026
FREDDailyReleased August 2026
US USD/EUR Exchange Rate held to 1.17 USD per EUR in August 2026.
Latest Release
1.168400
Actual
—
Consensus
1.168400
Previous
Sigmacast Track Record
Sigmacast track record will appear here once this indicator has been released 3+ times since Sigmanomics began tracking.
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.72 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| USD/CHF | ▼ Inverse | −0.69 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| NZD/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.58 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| GBP/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.57 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| AUD/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.55 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
USD/EUR Exchange Rate (United States) was reported at 1.17 USD per EUR in August 2026. The reading was unchanged from the previous release. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 1.16 USD per EUR, ranging from 1.13 USD per EUR to 1.20 USD per EUR across 247 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a daily basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 1.17 USD per EUR, up from the prior three at 1.16 USD per EUR. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.01 USD per EUR) is lower than the prior year (σ 0.05 USD per EUR). In August readings over the past 3 years, USD/EUR Exchange Rate has averaged 1.14 USD per EUR.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with EUR/USD (Bullish EUR). A secondary relationship exists with USD/CHF, negatively correlated (Bearish USD).
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Jackson Hole Symposium (Aug 28) and Chicago PMI (Aug 28).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update August 2026.
SHARE
USD/EUR Exchange Rate - US
Loading chart data...
About USD/EUR Exchange Rate — United States
DEFINITION
The US USD/EUR Exchange Rate reached 1.168400 on August 21, up from 1.167900 on August 20, marking a slight increase. August's rate shows a steady upward trend compared to earlier in the month, with values rising from 1.1531 on August 13 to 1.1684 on August 21. Market participants remain attentive to central bank signals amid this gradual strengthening of the dollar. Updated 8/25/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released daily.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Aug 2026): actual 1.168 USD per EUR. Prior reading (Aug 2026): 1.168 USD per EUR. Before that (Aug 2026): 1.166 USD per EUR.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with EUR/USD (Bullish EUR, r=0.72) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
Σ
EXPECTED ZONE
SIGMANOMICS MARKET FORECAST ENGINE
Multi-horizon symbol forecasts, Rolling-Surprise economic predictions, and programmatic API access.
Expected Zones · Trade Bias · Confidence Intervals · API Access · 1,456+ instruments
FOREXCRYPTOSTOCKSCOMMODITIESINDICESAPI
BLSBEAFMPWORLD BANKFRED
1,456+ instruments247 indicators530+ correlationsREST + GQL API
4,151 economic indicators127 countries covered6 data sources
FREDBLSEIAECBBOJFMP
Economic Calendar - US Events
| Wednesday, August 26, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:30 | US | Non Defense Goods Orders Ex Air | 0.2 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.35 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Durable Goods Orders MoM | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 1.75 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Durable Goods Orders Ex Transp MoM | 0.4 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.70 | High |
| 12:30 | US | PCE Price Index MoM | 0.2 | -0.1 | 0.1 | 0.10 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Durable Goods Orders Ex Defense MoM | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 1.88 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Corporate Profits QoQ | 8.2 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 1.05 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE Price Index YoY | 3.3 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 3.30 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE Price Index MoM | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.18 | High |
| 12:30 | US | PCE Price Index YoY | 3.7 | 3.7 | 3.6 | 3.63 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Personal Income MoM | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.15 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Personal Spending MoM | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.18 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Real Consumer Spending QoQ | 3.4 | 0.5 | 3.2 | 3.20 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | GDP Growth Rate QoQ | 1.5 | 2.1 | 1.5 | 1.40 | High |
| 12:30 | US | GDP Price Index QoQ | 6.4 | 3.6 | 6.3 | 6.08 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | GDP Sales QoQ | 2.2 | 1.9 | 2.2 | 2.18 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Gross Domestic Product QoQ | 1.5 | 2.1 | 1.5 | 1.40 | High |
| 12:30 | US | PCE Prices QoQ | 5.3 | 4.6 | 5.1 | 5.15 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE Prices QoQ | 3.6 | 4.4 | 3.4 | 3.48 | Low |
| 14:10 | US | Atlanta Fed GDPNow | 4.6 | 4 | 4 | 4.03 | Medium |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Distillate Stocks Change | -2.228 | -1.53 | -1.6 | -2.03 | Low |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Gasoline Stocks Change | -2.536 | 0.688 | -0.7 | -1.20 | Medium |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change | 0.095 | 4.405 | 0.6 | 0.67 | Medium |
| Thursday, August 27, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Jobless Claims 4-Week Average | 205.5 | 204.25 | 203 | 203.13 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Initial Jobless Claims | 203 | 207 | 208 | 207.75 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Goods Trade Balance Adv | -118.8 | -101.41 | -99 | -108.90 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Inventories Ex Autos MoM | 0.7 | -0.5 | 0 | 0.35 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Wholesale Inventories MoM | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.70 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Continuing Jobless Claims | 1778 | 1796 | 1790 | 1788.50 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Goods Trade Balance | -118.8 | -101.41 | -99 | -108.90 | High |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change | 15 | 16 | 20 | 17.75 | Low |
| 15:00 | US | Kansas Fed Manufacturing Index | 17 | 17 | 14 | 15.50 | Low |
| 15:00 | US | Kansas Fed Composite Index | 10 | 9 | 8 | 9.00 | Low |