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Data from FRED. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS USD/EUR Exchange Rate held to 1.16 USD per EUR in May 2026
FREDDailyReleased May 2026
US USD/EUR Exchange Rate held to 1.16 USD per EUR in May 2026.
Latest Release
1.162700
Actual
—
Consensus
1.162700
Previous
Sigmacast Track Record
Sigmacast track record will appear here once this indicator has been released 3+ times since Sigmanomics began tracking.
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.82 | FOREX | Bullish EUR | → View |
| USD/CHF | ▼ Inverse | −0.75 | FOREX | Bearish USD | → View |
| GBP/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.63 | FOREX | Bullish GBP | → View |
| NZD/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.60 | FOREX | Bullish NZD | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.60 | FOREX | Bearish USD | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
USD/EUR Exchange Rate (United States) was reported at 1.16 USD per EUR in May 2026. The reading was unchanged from the previous release. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 1.17 USD per EUR, ranging from 1.13 USD per EUR to 1.20 USD per EUR across 247 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a daily basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 1.17 USD per EUR, down from the prior three at 1.18 USD per EUR. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.01 USD per EUR) is lower than the prior year (σ 0.03 USD per EUR). In May readings over the past 3 years, USD/EUR Exchange Rate has averaged 1.11 USD per EUR.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with EUR/USD (Bullish EUR). A secondary relationship exists with USD/CHF, negatively correlated (Bearish USD).
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Leading Index MoM (May 22) and Fed Waller Speech (May 22).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update May 2026.
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USD/EUR Exchange Rate - US
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Wednesday, May 20, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14:30 | US | EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change | -7.864 | -4.306 | -2.9 | -5.38 | Medium |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Distillate Stocks Change | 0.372 | 0.19 | -1.1 | -0.36 | Low |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Gasoline Stocks Change | -1.548 | -4.084 | -2.1 | -1.82 | Medium |
| Thursday, May 21, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Building Permits | 1.442 | 1.363 | 1.39 | 1.53 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Housing Starts MoM | -2.8 | 12 | -3.5 | -3.15 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Housing Starts | 1.465 | 1.507 | 1.41 | 1.44 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Building Permits MoM | 5.8 | -11.5 | 0.5 | 3.15 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Continuing Jobless Claims | 1782 | 1776 | 1790 | 1786.00 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Jobless Claims 4-Week Average | 202.5 | 204 | 203 | 202.75 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index | -0.4 | 26.7 | 18 | 15.73 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Initial Jobless Claims | 209 | 212 | 210 | 209.50 | Medium |
| 13:45 | US | S&P Global Services PMI | 50.9 | 51 | 51.1 | 50.88 | Medium |
| 13:45 | US | S&P Global Composite PMI | 51.7 | 51.7 | 51.5 | 51.60 | Medium |
| 13:45 | US | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI | 55.3 | 54.5 | 53.8 | 53.88 | Medium |
| 14:00 | US | Atlanta Fed GDPNow | 4.3 | 4 | 4 | 3.92 | Medium |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change | 101 | 85 | 95 | 98.00 | Low |
| 15:00 | US | Kansas Fed Manufacturing Index | 9 | 10 | 9 | 9.00 | Low |
| 15:00 | US | Kansas Fed Composite Index | 8 | 10 | 9 | 8.50 | Low |