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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS Employed Persons fell to 5.11M in January 2025
FMPMonthlyReleased February 2025
US Employed Persons fell to 5.11M in January 2025, released February 2025, down 0.08M from December's 5.19M reading. The reading matched the 5.14M consensus.
Latest Release
5.109000
Actual
5.140000
Consensus
5.190000
Previous
Sigmacast Track Record
Sigmacast track record will appear here once this indicator has been released 3+ times since Sigmanomics began tracking.
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.50 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.45 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.40 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.35 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | CRYPTO | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Employed Persons (United States) was reported at 5.11 million in January 2025. This missed the market consensus of 5.14 million by 0.03 million. The reading fell from the previous value of 5.19 million.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with S&P 500 (Bullish Stocks). A secondary relationship exists with EUR/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish EUR).
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate (Sep 23) and S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Sep 23).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update February 2025.
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Employed Persons - US
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About Employed Persons — United States
DEFINITION
Employed Persons is a financial indicator that measures the number of individuals who are currently employed in a specific country or region. It provides valuable insights into the overall health of the labor market and the level of economic activity. This indicator is often used by policymakers, investors, and analysts to assess the strength of an economy and make informed decisions. A higher number of employed persons is generally seen as a positive sign, indicating a growing economy and potential for increased consumer spending. Conversely, a decrease in employed persons may signal a weakening economy and potential job market challenges.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT'S NEXT
This indicator correlates most strongly with S&P 500 (Bullish Stocks, r=0.50) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Tuesday, September 22, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14:00 | US | Richmond Fed Manufacturing Shipments Index | -5 | 11 | 9 | 2.00 | Low |
| 14:00 | US | Richmond Fed Services Index | 0 | -8 | -6 | -3.00 | Low |
| 14:00 | US | Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index | -2 | 4 | 5 | 1.50 | Low |
| 20:30 | US | API Crude Oil Stock Change | 1.786 | 7.14 | -0.5 | 0.64 | Medium |
| 21:00 | US | API Crude Oil Stock Change | 1.786 | 7.14 | -0.5 | 0.64 | Medium |
| Wednesday, September 23, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 13:45 | US | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI | 53.9 | 53.6 | 53.60 | Medium | |
| 13:45 | US | S&P Global Composite PMI | 56 | 55.2 | 55.20 | Medium | |
| 13:45 | US | S&P Global Services PMI | 56.5 | 56 | 56.00 | Medium | |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change | -0.64 | -0.6 | -0.60 | Medium | |
| Thursday, September 24, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Initial Jobless Claims | 196 | 201 | 196.00 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Current Account | -226.8 | -255 | -255.00 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Jobless Claims 4-Week Average | 203.25 | 203 | 202.13 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Continuing Jobless Claims | 1730 | 1750 | 1760.50 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Building Permits MoM | -2.7 | 4.3 | -2.7 | -2.70 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Building Permits | 1.394 | 1.433 | 1.394 | 1.39 | Low |
| 14:00 | US | New Home Sales | 0.607 | 0.62 | 0.62 | High | |
| 15:00 | US | Kansas Fed Manufacturing Index | 17 | 9 | 15.00 | Low | |
| 15:00 | US | Kansas Fed Composite Index | 10 | 5 | 7.50 | Low | |
| Friday, September 25, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Durable Goods Orders Ex Transp MoM | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.95 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Non Defense Goods Orders Ex Air | 0.2 | 0.5 | 1.00 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Durable Goods Orders MoM | 1.1 | -0.4 | -0.40 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Durable Goods Orders Ex Defense MoM | 1.3 | -0.6 | -0.95 | High | |
| 14:00 | US | Michigan Consumer Sentiment | 47.8 | 51.7 | 47.6 | 47.70 | High |
| 14:00 | US | Michigan 5 Year Inflation Expectations | 3.4 | 3.3 | 3.4 | 3.40 | Low |
| 14:00 | US | Michigan Current Conditions | 50.9 | 51.9 | 49.5 | 50.20 | Low |
| 14:00 | US | Michigan Inflation Expectations | 4.6 | 4 | 4.6 | 4.60 | Low |
| 14:00 | US | Michigan Consumer Expectations | 45.8 | 51.5 | 45.8 | 45.80 | Low |
| 17:00 | US | Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count | 452 | 453 | 453.00 | Low | |