United StatesUS CB Leading Index MoM fell to -0.1% in December 2024
US CB Leading Index MoM fell to -0.1% in December 2024, released 22 Jan 2025, down 0.5% from November's 0.4% reading. The reading missed the 0.0% consensus by 0.1%. The reading is in the 88th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
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Forecasts generated by Sigmanomics engine. Not financial advice.
Backtest — not a live record
Backtest median absolute error
reconstructed over the last 12 releases
Latest release (backtest)
Released 22 Jan 2025
Method: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.50 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.45 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.40 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.35 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | CRYPTO | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
CB Leading Index MoM (United States) was reported at -0.1% in December 2024. This missed the market consensus of 0% by 0.1%. The reading fell from the previous value of 0.4%. The 12 releases before this one averaged -0.28%.
WHY IT MATTERS
Releases in the 3 months before this one averaged -0.05%, against -0.43% in the 3 months before that.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Core PPI MoM (Nov 13) and Producer Price Index MoM (Nov 13).
CB Leading Index MoM - US
About CB Leading Index MoM — United States
DEFINITION
The CB Leading Index MoM is a monthly financial indicator that measures the overall economic health and potential future growth of a country. It is calculated by analyzing a variety of economic data, such as stock prices, consumer expectations, and interest rates, to provide insight into the direction of the economy. This index is often used by investors, policymakers, and businesses to make informed decisions and assess the current and future state of the economy. A positive change in the CB Leading Index MoM suggests potential economic expansion, while a negative change may indicate a slowdown.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Dec 2024): actual -0.1 %, consensus 0 %. Prior reading (Nov 2024): 0.4 %. Before that (Oct 2024, first reported): -0.4 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast is 0.03% (latest print -0.1%). The projection is based on the indicator's own recent trend. This indicator correlates most strongly with S&P 500 (r=0.50) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Thursday, November 12, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13:30 | US | Initial Jobless Claims | 200 | 191 | 195 | 197.50 | High |
| 13:30 | US | Continuing Jobless Claims | 1697 | 1717 | 1710 | 1703.50 | High |
| 13:30 | US | Jobless Claims 4-Week Average | 195.25 | 195.25 | 192.5 | 193.88 | High |
| 15:00 | US | Existing Home Sales MoM | -5.5 | 1 | 0.3 | -2.60 | High |
| 15:00 | US | Existing Home Sales | 3.75 | 3.97 | 3.85 | 3.80 | High |
| 17:00 | US | EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change | 4.657 | -0.865 | -1.1 | 1.78 | Medium |
| 17:00 | US | EIA Distillate Stocks Change | 4.071 | -3.565 | -1 | 1.54 | Low |
| 17:00 | US | EIA Gasoline Stocks Change | 1.799 | -0.222 | -0.1 | 0.85 | Medium |
| 19:00 | US | Budget Balance | -404 | -27 | -298.6 | -351.30 | Medium |
| Friday, November 13, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 13:30 | US | PPI Ex Food, Energy and Trade MoM | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.30 | Low | |
| 13:30 | US | Producer Price Index YoY | 6.3 | 6.6 | 6.60 | Low | |
| 13:30 | US | Core PPI MoM | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.30 | Medium | |
| 13:30 | US | Core PPI YoY | 5 | 5 | 5.00 | Low | |
| 13:30 | US | PPI Ex Food, Energy and Trade YoY | 5 | 5 | 5.00 | Low | |
| 13:30 | US | Producer Price Index MoM | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.40 | High | |
| 13:30 | US | Producer Price Index | 159.78 | 160 | 160.00 | Low | |
| 15:30 | US | EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change | 77 | 66 | 66.00 | Low | |
| Monday, November 16, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 13:30 | US | NY Empire State Manufacturing Index | 25.5 | 10 | 14.80 | High | |
Editorial review: Neha Gupta, AnalystLinkedIn profile
Neha Gupta is a Chartered Financial Analyst with over 18 years of experience in finance and more than 11 years as a financial writer. She’s authored for clients worldwide, including platforms like MarketWatch, TipRanks, InsiderMonkey, and Seeking Alpha. Her work is known for its technical rigor, clear communication, and compliance-awareness—evident in her success enhancing market updates.