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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS CB Leading Index MoM fell to -0.1% in December 2024
FMPMonthlyReleased January 2025
US CB Leading Index MoM fell to -0.1% in December 2024, released January 2025, down 0.5% from November's 0.4% reading. The reading missed the 0.0% consensus by 0.1%. The print is running well above the 12-month average of -0.28%. Over the past 3 months, CB Leading Index MoM averaged -0.05%, vs -0.43% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 88th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
-0.1
Actual
0
Consensus
0.4
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.2 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jan 2025
Predicted: 0.08
Actual: -0.1
Error: +0.17
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.50 | INDEX | Bullish Stocks | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.45 | FOREX | Bearish EUR | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.40 | FOREX | Bullish USD | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.35 | COMMODITIES | Bearish Gold | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | CRYPTO | Watch | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
CB Leading Index MoM (United States) was reported at -0.1% in January 2025. This missed the market consensus of 0% by 0.1%. The reading fell from the previous value of 0.4%.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged -0.07%, up from the prior three at -0.43%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with S&P 500 (Bullish Stocks). A secondary relationship exists with EUR/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish EUR). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.2%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Monthly Budget Statement (Jul 13) and Budget Balance (Jul 13).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update January 2025.
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CB Leading Index MoM - US
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About CB Leading Index MoM — United States
DEFINITION
The CB Leading Index MoM is a monthly financial indicator that measures the overall economic health and potential future growth of a country. It is calculated by analyzing a variety of economic data, such as stock prices, consumer expectations, and interest rates, to provide insight into the direction of the economy. This index is often used by investors, policymakers, and businesses to make informed decisions and assess the current and future state of the economy. A positive change in the CB Leading Index MoM suggests potential economic expansion, while a negative change may indicate a slowdown.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Dec 2024): actual -0.1 %, consensus 0 %. Prior reading (Nov 2024): 0.3 %. Before that (Oct 2024): -0.4 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with S&P 500 (Bullish Stocks, r=0.50) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Tuesday, July 14, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10:00 | US | NFIB Business Optimism Index | 95.3 | 96 | 94.60 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Inflation Rate YoY | 4.2 | 3.9 | 3.90 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Core Inflation Rate YoY | 2.9 | 2.8 | 2.75 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | CPI s.a | 333.979 | 335.3 | 335.40 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Core Inflation Rate MoM | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.25 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | CPI | 335.12 | 335.1 | 335.00 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Inflation Rate MoM | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.40 | High | |
| Wednesday, July 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Producer Price Index | 157.659 | 159.1 | 159.10 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Producer Price Index YoY | 6.5 | 7.2 | 6.90 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Core PPI YoY | 4.9 | 5.2 | 5.05 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Producer Price Index MoM | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.50 | High | |
| Thursday, July 16, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.40 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales YoY | 6.9 | 6.7 | 6.70 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales Ex Gas/Autos MoM | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.30 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales MoM | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.30 | High | |
| 14:00 | US | Pending Home Sales YoY | 4.8 | 1.3 | 1.30 | Medium | |