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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS Manufacturing Payrolls climbed to 16K in August 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased September 2026
US Manufacturing Payrolls climbed to 16K in August 2026, released September 2026, up 2K from July's 14K reading. The print exceeded the 5K consensus by 11K. Manufacturing Payrolls has now risen for 3 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Manufacturing Payrolls averaged 4K, vs 6.67K in the prior 3-month window. Manufacturing Payrolls is now the highest in 20 months.
Latest Release
16
Actual
5
Consensus
14
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±4.75 thousand
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Sep 2026
Predicted: 5.25
Actual: 16
Error: -10.75
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MSFT | ▼ Inverse | −0.46 | STOCKS | Moves against | → View |
| AAPL | ▲ Direct | +0.32 | STOCKS | Moves with | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.29 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| NZD/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.26 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Manufacturing Payrolls (United States) was reported at 16 thousand in September 2026. This beat the market consensus of 5 thousand by 11 thousand. The reading rose from the previous value of 14 thousand. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through September 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 1 thousand, ranging from -12 thousand to 16 thousand across 9 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 8 thousand, up from the prior three at 0 thousand. Volatility over the past year (σ 8 thousand) is lower than the prior year (σ 16 thousand). In September readings over the past 3 years, Manufacturing Payrolls has averaged -7 thousand.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with MSFT (Bearish MSFT). A secondary relationship exists with AAPL, positively correlated (Bullish AAPL). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 5 thousand.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for October 2, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Sep 15) and NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Sep 15).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update September 2026.
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Manufacturing Payrolls - US
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About Manufacturing Payrolls — United States
DEFINITION
Manufacturing Payrolls is a financial indicator that measures the number of employees working in the manufacturing sector of the economy. This data is used to assess the health and growth of the manufacturing industry, which is a key driver of economic activity. It provides valuable insights into the overall employment trends and can be used by investors, policymakers, and businesses to make informed decisions. A higher number of manufacturing payrolls is generally seen as a positive sign for the economy, indicating increased production and consumer demand.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Labor-market data shapes consumer-spending forecasts and is closely tracked by central banks assessing the output gap and wage-inflation pass-through. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Aug 2026): actual 16 K, consensus 5 K. Prior reading (Jul 2026): 5 K. Before that (Jun 2026): 3 K.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with MSFT (Bearish MSFT, r=-0.46) — a useful reference for stocks-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Monday, September 14, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15:30 | US | 3-Month Bill Auction | 3.8 | 3.809 | 3.81 | Low | |
| Tuesday, September 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | NY Empire State Manufacturing Index | 20.6 | 15 | 10.85 | High | |
| Wednesday, September 16, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales MoM | -0.6 | 0.9 | 0.90 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM | -0.3 | 0.5 | 0.50 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Import Prices YoY | 5.9 | 6 | 6.35 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales Ex Gas/Autos MoM | -0.2 | 0.1 | 0.10 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales YoY | 5 | 4.3 | 4.30 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Export Prices MoM | -1.3 | -0.5 | -0.45 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Import Prices MoM | -0.4 | 0.2 | 0.65 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Export Prices YoY | 8.2 | 7.5 | 7.90 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | Business Inventories MoM | 0 | 0.2 | 0.20 | Medium | |
| 14:00 | US | NAHB Housing Market Index | 35 | 34 | 33.50 | Medium | |
| 18:00 | US | Fed Interest Rate Decision | 3.75 | 4 | 4.00 | High | |
| 20:00 | US | Net Long-Term TIC Flows | 172.7 | 146.3 | 146.30 | Medium | |