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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS Manufacturing Payrolls fell to 9K in September 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased October 2026
US Manufacturing Payrolls fell to 9K in September 2026, released October 2026, down 6K from August's 15K reading. The reading missed the 10K consensus by 1K. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 0.5K. Over the past 3 months, Manufacturing Payrolls averaged 10.5K, vs 2.67K in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 80th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
9
Actual
10
Consensus
15
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±4.25 thousand
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Oct 2026
Predicted: 13
Actual: 9
Error: +4
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MSFT | ▼ Inverse | −0.51 | STOCKS | Moves against | → View |
| AAPL | ▲ Direct | +0.26 | STOCKS | Moves with | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.25 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Manufacturing Payrolls (United States) was reported at 9 thousand in October 2026. This missed the market consensus of 10 thousand by 1 thousand. The reading fell from the previous value of 15 thousand. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 1 thousand, ranging from -12 thousand to 16 thousand across 10 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 10 thousand, up from the prior three at -1 thousand. Volatility over the past year (σ 8 thousand) is lower than the prior year (σ 17 thousand).
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with MSFT (Bearish MSFT). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 4 thousand.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for November 6, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Initial Jobless Claims (Oct 29) and GDP Price Index QoQ (Oct 29).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
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Manufacturing Payrolls - US
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About Manufacturing Payrolls — United States
DEFINITION
Manufacturing Payrolls is a financial indicator that measures the number of employees working in the manufacturing sector of the economy. This data is used to assess the health and growth of the manufacturing industry, which is a key driver of economic activity. It provides valuable insights into the overall employment trends and can be used by investors, policymakers, and businesses to make informed decisions. A higher number of manufacturing payrolls is generally seen as a positive sign for the economy, indicating increased production and consumer demand.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Labor-market data shapes consumer-spending forecasts and is closely tracked by central banks assessing the output gap and wage-inflation pass-through. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Sep 2026): actual 9 K, consensus 10 K. Prior reading (Aug 2026): 16 K. Before that (Jul 2026): 5 K.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with MSFT (Bearish MSFT, r=-0.51) — a useful reference for stocks-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Tuesday, October 27, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:00 | US | Building Permits MoM | -0.4 | -2.1 | -0.2 | -0.30 | Medium |
| 12:00 | US | Building Permits | 1.398 | 1.403 | 1.4 | 1.40 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Non Defense Goods Orders Ex Air | 0.5 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.60 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Durable Goods Orders Ex Defense MoM | 2.2 | 0.3 | 2.2 | 2.20 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Durable Goods Orders MoM | 1.8 | 0.1 | 1.5 | 1.65 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Durable Goods Orders Ex Transp MoM | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.55 | High |
| 13:00 | US | S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price YoY | 2.7 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.60 | Medium |
| 13:00 | US | House Price Index | 444.6 | 443.2 | 444.4 | 444.50 | Low |
| 13:00 | US | House Price Index YoY | 2.4 | 2.5 | 2.1 | 2.25 | Low |
| 13:00 | US | House Price Index MoM | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.25 | Low |
| 13:00 | US | S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price MoM | -0.4 | 0 | -0.1 | -0.25 | Low |
| 14:00 | US | Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index | -2 | -2 | 0 | -1.00 | Low |
| 14:00 | US | Richmond Fed Services Index | 2 | 0 | -2 | 0.00 | Low |
| 14:00 | US | Richmond Fed Manufacturing Shipments Index | 0 | -5 | -7 | -3.50 | Low |
| 14:00 | US | New Home Sales | 0.676 | 0.68 | 0.65 | 0.66 | High |
| 14:00 | US | CB Consumer Confidence | 91.7 | 84.2 | 81 | 86.35 | Medium |
| 14:00 | US | New Home Sales MoM | -0.6 | 5.1 | -3.5 | -2.05 | High |
| 14:30 | US | Dallas Fed Services Revenues Index | 4.4 | -0.9 | -2 | 1.20 | Low |
| 14:30 | US | Dallas Fed Services Index | 4 | -1.8 | -3 | 0.50 | Low |
| 15:00 | US | Atlanta Fed GDPNow | 3.4 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 3.45 | Medium |
| 15:45 | US | Atlanta Fed GDPNow | 3.4 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 3.45 | Medium |
| 17:00 | US | Money Supply | 23.41 | 23.34 | 23.4 | 23.41 | Low |
| 20:30 | US | API Crude Oil Stock Change | -2.031 | -4.93 | 0.8 | -0.62 | Medium |
| 20:50 | US | API Crude Oil Stock Change | -2.031 | -4.93 | 0.8 | -0.62 | Medium |
| Wednesday, October 28, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Wholesale Inventories MoM | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.55 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Inventories Ex Autos MoM | 0.4 | 0.1 | -0.1 | 0.15 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Goods Trade Balance | -134.9 | -132.07 | -130 | -132.45 | High |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Distillate Stocks Change | -1.462 | 1.675 | -0.9 | -0.82 | Low |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change | -1.892 | -3.061 | 0 | -1.94 | Medium |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Gasoline Stocks Change | 3.87 | -2.952 | -0.9 | 0.47 | Medium |
| 18:00 | US | Fed Interest Rate Decision | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4.00 | High |
| Thursday, October 29, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Initial Jobless Claims | 194 | 199 | 197.50 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | GDP Price Index QoQ | 6.1 | 3.2 | 4.55 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE Price Index MoM | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.25 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | PCE Price Index YoY | 3.4 | 3.6 | 3.60 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Personal Income MoM | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.25 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | PCE Price Index MoM | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.50 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE Price Index YoY | 3 | 3.1 | 3.10 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Jobless Claims 4-Week Average | 197.75 | 197 | 193.38 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Continuing Jobless Claims | 1728 | 1720 | 1711.00 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Real Consumer Spending QoQ | 3.8 | 3.9 | 5.30 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | GDP Sales QoQ | 2.8 | 3.5 | 3.90 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Personal Spending MoM | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.60 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | GDP Growth Rate QoQ | 2.2 | 3.2 | 2.90 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE Prices QoQ | 3.3 | 2.4 | 2.35 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | PCE Prices QoQ | 5 | 3.4 | 3.95 | Low | |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change | 77 | 75 | 71.50 | Low | |