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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS Manufacturing Payrolls climbed to 7K in May 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased June 2026
US Manufacturing Payrolls climbed to 7K in May 2026, released June 2026, up 7K from April's 0K reading. The print exceeded the 2K consensus by 5K. The print is running well above the 12-month average of -3.67K. Over the past 3 months, Manufacturing Payrolls averaged 6.5K, vs -5K in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 84th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
7
Actual
2
Consensus
0
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±4.75 thousand
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jun 2026
Predicted: 2
Actual: 7
Error: -5
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AAPL | ▲ Direct | +0.52 | STOCKS | Bullish AAPL | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.37 | INDEX | Bullish S&P 500 | → View |
| MSFT | ▼ Inverse | −0.33 | STOCKS | Bearish MSFT | → View |
| GBP/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.26 | FOREX | Bearish GBP | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Manufacturing Payrolls (United States) was reported at 7 thousand in June 2026. This beat the market consensus of 2 thousand by 5 thousand. The reading rose from the previous value of 0 thousand. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through June 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged -5 thousand, ranging from -12 thousand to 7 thousand across 8 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 0 thousand, up from the prior three at -6 thousand. Volatility over the past year (σ 7 thousand) is lower than the prior year (σ 16 thousand). In June readings over the past 3 years, Manufacturing Payrolls has averaged 2 thousand.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with AAPL (Bullish AAPL). A secondary relationship exists with S&P 500, positively correlated (Bullish S&P 500). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 5 thousand.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for July 2, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Jun 15) and Industrial Production MoM (Jun 15).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update June 2026.
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Manufacturing Payrolls - US
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About Manufacturing Payrolls — United States
DEFINITION
Manufacturing Payrolls is a financial indicator that measures the number of employees working in the manufacturing sector of the economy. This data is used to assess the health and growth of the manufacturing industry, which is a key driver of economic activity. It provides valuable insights into the overall employment trends and can be used by investors, policymakers, and businesses to make informed decisions. A higher number of manufacturing payrolls is generally seen as a positive sign for the economy, indicating increased production and consumer demand.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Labor-market data shapes consumer-spending forecasts and is closely tracked by central banks assessing the output gap and wage-inflation pass-through. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (May 2026): actual 7 K, consensus 2 K. Prior reading (Apr 2026): -2 K. Before that (Mar 2026): 15 K.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with AAPL (Bullish AAPL, r=0.52) — a useful reference for stocks-focused traders.