Loading page content
Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS Fed Labor Market Conditions Index fell to 1.5 in July 2017
FMPMonthlyReleased July 2017
US Fed Labor Market Conditions Index fell to 1.5 in July 2017, down 1.8 from June's 3.3 reading. The reading missed the 2.5 consensus by 1. Fed Labor Market Conditions Index has now declined for 3 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Fed Labor Market Conditions Index averaged 2.9, vs 1 in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 75th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
1.5
Actual
2.5
Consensus
3.3
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.95
across last 4 releases
Last Call
Jul 2017
Predicted: 2.15
Actual: 1.5
Error: +0.65
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.50 | INDEX | Bullish Stocks | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.45 | FOREX | Bearish EUR | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.40 | FOREX | Bullish USD | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.35 | COMMODITIES | Bearish Gold | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | CRYPTO | Watch | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Fed Labor Market Conditions Index (United States) was reported at 1.50 in July 2017. This missed the market consensus of 2.50 by 1.00. The reading fell from the previous value of 3.30.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 2.43, up from the prior three at 1.00.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with S&P 500 (Bullish Stocks). A secondary relationship exists with EUR/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish EUR).
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Jun 15) and Industrial Production MoM (Jun 15).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2017.
SHARE
Fed Labor Market Conditions Index - US
Loading chart data...
About Fed Labor Market Conditions Index — United States
DEFINITION
The Fed Labor Market Conditions Index is a comprehensive measure of the overall health of the labor market in the United States. It takes into account a variety of indicators, such as employment levels, job openings, and wage growth, to provide a holistic view of the current state of the labor market. This index is closely monitored by economists and policymakers as it can provide valuable insights into the strength of the economy and potential future trends in the job market.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jul 2017): actual 1.5, consensus 2.5. Prior reading (Jun 2017): 2.3. Before that (May 2017): 3.5.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook diverging from that direction. The 1-month and 3-month horizons disagree, suggesting a mixed signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with S&P 500 (Bullish Stocks, r=0.50) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.