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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS Philly Fed Business Conditions fell to 3.9 in August 2023
FMPMonthlyReleased August 2023
US Philly Fed Business Conditions fell to 3.9 in August 2023, down 25.2 from July's 29.1 reading. The reading missed the 31.6 consensus by 27.7. The print is running well above the 12-month average of -0.34. Over the past 3 months, Philly Fed Business Conditions averaged 20.9, vs -6.6 in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 52nd percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
3.9
Actual
31.6
Consensus
29.1
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±12.95
across last 5 releases
Last Call
Aug 2023
Predicted: 42.28
Actual: 3.9
Error: +38.38
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AAPL | ▼ Inverse | −0.52 | STOCKS | Moves against | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.52 | CRYPTO | Moves with | → View |
| MSFT | ▼ Inverse | −0.35 | STOCKS | Moves against | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.34 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▼ Inverse | −0.27 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Philly Fed Business Conditions (United States) was reported at 33.00 in October 2026. The reading fell from the previous value of 52.90. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through September 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 45.45, ranging from 25.50 to 73.60 across 11 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 53.63, up from the prior three at 47.80. Volatility over the past year (σ 12.08) is lower than the prior year (σ 14.95). In September readings over the past 3 years, Philly Fed Business Conditions has averaged 33.40.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with AAPL (Bearish AAPL). A secondary relationship exists with BTC/USD, positively correlated (Bullish BTC).
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Fed Hammack Speech (Oct 15) and Import Prices MoM (Oct 16).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update September 2026.
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Philly Fed Business Conditions - US
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About Philly Fed Business Conditions — United States
DEFINITION
Index The Philly Fed Business Conditions Index is a key economic indicator that measures the overall health and performance of the manufacturing sector in the Philadelphia region. It is based on a survey of business executives and provides valuable insights into current and future business conditions, including trends in production, new orders, employment, and prices. This index is widely used by investors, policymakers, and economists to gauge the strength of the regional economy and make informed decisions.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Oct 2026): actual 33. Prior reading (Sep 2026): 52.9. Before that (Aug 2026): 73.6.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially higher reading versus the latest print. The 1-month and 3-month horizons disagree, suggesting a mixed signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with AAPL (Bearish AAPL, r=-0.52) — a useful reference for stocks-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Wednesday, October 14, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:30 | US | Inflation Rate YoY | 3.7 | 3.4 | 3.6 | 3.65 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Core Inflation Rate YoY | 2.6 | 2.4 | 2.5 | 2.55 | High |
| 12:30 | US | CPI s.a | 336.3 | 334.13 | 335.8 | 336.05 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Core Inflation Rate MoM | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.25 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Inflation Rate MoM | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.60 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Inflation Rate | 336.94 | 334.98 | 336.65 | 336.79 | High |
| 20:30 | US | API Crude Oil Stock Change | -11.1 | -2.09 | 1.9 | -4.60 | Medium |
| 21:00 | US | API Crude Oil Stock Change | -11.1 | -2.09 | 1.9 | -4.60 | Medium |
| Thursday, October 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Producer Price Index YoY | 6.3 | 5.6 | 5.3 | 5.80 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index | 20.9 | 37.8 | 28.4 | 33.63 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | NY Empire State Manufacturing Index | 25.5 | 7.6 | 10.3 | 17.90 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Core PPI YoY | 5 | 4.8 | 4.4 | 4.70 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Continuing Jobless Claims | 1710 | 1714 | 1710 | 1706.25 | High |
| 12:30 | US | PPI Ex Food, Energy and Trade YoY | 5 | 4.8 | 4.7 | 4.85 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Producer Price Index MoM | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.90 | High |
| 12:30 | US | PPI Ex Food, Energy and Trade MoM | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.40 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Initial Jobless Claims | 199 | 198 | 200 | 197.50 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Producer Price Index | 159.78 | 157.411 | 159.1 | 159.44 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Jobless Claims 4-Week Average | 198.5 | 198.25 | 199 | 198.44 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Core PPI MoM | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.50 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales MoM | 0.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.25 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM | 0.9 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.57 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales Ex Gas/Autos MoM | 0.2 | 1.1 | 0.2 | 0.23 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales YoY | 6.3 | 5.6 | 5.2 | 5.47 | High |
| 14:00 | US | Business Inventories MoM | 0.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.40 | Medium |
| 14:00 | US | Retail Inventories Ex Autos MoM | 0 | 0.8 | 0.1 | 0.05 | Low |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change | 67 | 85 | 76 | 73.25 | Low |
| 15:00 | US | Atlanta Fed GDPNow | 3.6 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 3.70 | Medium |
| 16:00 | US | EIA Gasoline Stocks Change | 3.518 | 0.382 | -0.5 | 1.51 | Medium |
| 16:00 | US | EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change | -8.557 | -3.186 | -0.3 | -4.43 | Medium |
| 16:00 | US | EIA Distillate Stocks Change | -2.527 | -0.042 | -1.6 | -2.06 | Low |