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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS Philly Fed Business Conditions fell to 3.9 in August 2023
FMPMonthlyReleased August 2023
US Philly Fed Business Conditions fell to 3.9 in August 2023, down 25.2 from July's 29.1 reading. The reading missed the 31.6 consensus by 27.7. The print is running well above the 12-month average of -0.34. Over the past 3 months, Philly Fed Business Conditions averaged 20.9, vs -6.6 in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 52nd percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
3.9
Actual
31.6
Consensus
29.1
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±12.95
across last 5 releases
Last Call
Aug 2023
Predicted: 42.28
Actual: 3.9
Error: +38.38
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.61 | CRYPTO | Moves with | → View |
| AAPL | ▼ Inverse | −0.47 | STOCKS | Moves against | → View |
| GOOGL | ▲ Direct | +0.43 | STOCKS | Moves with | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.37 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.35 | COMMODITIES | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Philly Fed Business Conditions (United States) was reported at 73.60 in August 2026. The reading rose from the previous value of 34.40. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through August 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 43.51, ranging from 25.50 to 73.60 across 11 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 52.73, up from the prior three at 45.33. Volatility over the past year (σ 12.44) is lower than the prior year (σ 15.40). In August readings over the past 3 years, Philly Fed Business Conditions has averaged 38.00.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with BTC/USD (Bullish BTC). A secondary relationship exists with AAPL, negatively correlated (Bearish AAPL).
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for September 17, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include FOMC Economic Projections (Sep 16) and Fed Interest Rate Decision (Sep 16).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update August 2026.
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Philly Fed Business Conditions - US
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About Philly Fed Business Conditions — United States
DEFINITION
Index The Philly Fed Business Conditions Index is a key economic indicator that measures the overall health and performance of the manufacturing sector in the Philadelphia region. It is based on a survey of business executives and provides valuable insights into current and future business conditions, including trends in production, new orders, employment, and prices. This index is widely used by investors, policymakers, and economists to gauge the strength of the regional economy and make informed decisions.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Aug 2026): actual 73.6. Prior reading (Jul 2026): 34.4. Before that (Jun 2026): 50.2.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with BTC/USD (Bullish BTC, r=0.61) — a useful reference for crypto-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Tuesday, September 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:30 | US | NY Empire State Manufacturing Index | 7.6 | 20.6 | 14.75 | 11.18 | High |
| 20:30 | US | API Crude Oil Stock Change | 7.14 | -0.3 | -1.8 | 2.67 | Medium |
| 21:00 | US | API Crude Oil Stock Change | 7.14 | -0.3 | -1.8 | 2.67 | Medium |
| Wednesday, September 16, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales MoM | 1.2 | -0.5 | 0.8 | 1.00 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM | 1.4 | -0.2 | 0.5 | 0.80 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Import Prices YoY | 7 | 6.1 | 6.4 | 6.70 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales Ex Gas/Autos MoM | 1.2 | -0.3 | 0.2 | 0.45 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales YoY | 6 | 5.03 | 4.7 | 5.75 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Export Prices MoM | 0.6 | -1.4 | 0.5 | 0.55 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Import Prices MoM | 0.7 | -0.3 | 0.4 | 0.55 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Export Prices YoY | 8.6 | 8.1 | 8.5 | 8.55 | Low |
| 14:00 | US | Business Inventories MoM | 0.8 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.42 | Medium |
| 14:00 | US | NAHB Housing Market Index | 32 | 35 | 34 | 33.00 | Medium |
| 14:00 | US | Retail Inventories Ex Autos MoM | 0.8 | -0.5 | 0.7 | 0.72 | Low |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change | -0.64 | -0.391 | -1.6 | -2.28 | Medium |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Gasoline Stocks Change | 0.794 | 1.269 | -1 | -0.53 | Medium |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Distillate Stocks Change | 1.585 | 2.087 | 0.1 | 0.83 | Low |
| 16:00 | US | Atlanta Fed GDPNow | 5.1 | 4.4 | 4.4 | 4.63 | Medium |
| 20:00 | US | Net Long-Term TIC Flows | 172.7 | 146.3 | 160.35 | Medium | |