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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS Philly Fed Business Conditions fell to 3.9 in August 2023
FMPMonthlyReleased August 2023
US Philly Fed Business Conditions fell to 3.9 in August 2023, down 25.2 from July's 29.1 reading. The reading missed the 31.6 consensus by 27.7. The print is running well above the 12-month average of -0.34. Over the past 3 months, Philly Fed Business Conditions averaged 20.9, vs -6.6 in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 52nd percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
3.9
Actual
31.6
Consensus
29.1
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±12.95
across last 5 releases
Last Call
Aug 2023
Predicted: 42.28
Actual: 3.9
Error: +38.38
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GOOGL | ▲ Direct | +0.67 | STOCKS | Moves with | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.50 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| USD/CAD | ▲ Direct | +0.42 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.40 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| AUD/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.35 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Philly Fed Business Conditions (United States) was reported at 34.40 in July 2026. The reading fell from the previous value of 50.20. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through July 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 39.09, ranging from 25.00 to 53.20 across 11 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 45.93, up from the prior three at 36.10. Volatility over the past year (σ 9.17) is lower than the prior year (σ 15.79). In July readings over the past 3 years, Philly Fed Business Conditions has averaged 31.53.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with GOOGL (Bullish GOOGL). A secondary relationship exists with USD/JPY, positively correlated (Bullish USD).
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for August 20, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include CFTC Gold Speculative net positions (Jul 31) and CFTC Nasdaq 100 speculative net positions (Jul 31).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
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Philly Fed Business Conditions - US
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About Philly Fed Business Conditions — United States
DEFINITION
Index The Philly Fed Business Conditions Index is a key economic indicator that measures the overall health and performance of the manufacturing sector in the Philadelphia region. It is based on a survey of business executives and provides valuable insights into current and future business conditions, including trends in production, new orders, employment, and prices. This index is widely used by investors, policymakers, and economists to gauge the strength of the regional economy and make informed decisions.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jul 2026): actual 34.4. Prior reading (Jun 2026): 50.2. Before that (May 2026): 53.2.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook diverging from that direction. The 1-month and 3-month horizons disagree, suggesting a mixed signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with GOOGL (Bullish GOOGL, r=0.67) — a useful reference for stocks-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Thursday, July 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:30 | US | Personal Income MoM | 0.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.25 | High |
| 12:30 | US | PCE Price Index MoM | -0.1 | 0.5 | -0.1 | -0.10 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | PCE Prices QoQ | 5.1 | 4.6 | 4 | 4.55 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Initial Jobless Claims | 197 | 188 | 200 | 198.50 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Real Consumer Spending QoQ | 3.2 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 1.80 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | PCE Price Index YoY | 3.7 | 4.1 | 3.7 | 3.70 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | GDP Growth Rate QoQ | 1.5 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 1.80 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Continuing Jobless Claims | 1782 | 1789 | 1800 | 1791.00 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Gross Domestic Product QoQ | 1.5 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 1.80 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Jobless Claims 4-Week Average | 202.75 | 207.75 | 210 | 206.38 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE Price Index MoM | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.15 | High |
| 12:30 | US | GDP Sales QoQ | 2.2 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 1.80 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE Price Index YoY | 3.3 | 3.4 | 3.3 | 3.30 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE Prices QoQ | 3.4 | 4.4 | 3.5 | 3.45 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | GDP Price Index QoQ | 6.3 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 4.95 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Personal Spending MoM | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.30 | Low |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change | 28 | 32 | 35 | 31.50 | Low |