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Data from FRED. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS NBER Recession Indicator held to 0 Binary (1=Recession) in March 2026
FREDMonthlyReleased April 2026
US NBER Recession Indicator held to 0 Binary (1=Recession) in March 2026, released April 2026.
Latest Release
0.000000
Actual
—
Consensus
0.000000
Previous
Sigmacast Track Record
Sigmacast track record will appear here once this indicator has been released 3+ times since Sigmanomics began tracking.
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.50 | INDEX | Bullish Stocks | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.45 | FOREX | Bearish EUR | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.40 | FOREX | Bullish USD | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.35 | COMMODITIES | Bearish Gold | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | CRYPTO | Watch | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
NBER Recession Indicator (United States) was reported at 0.00 Binary (1=Recession) in March 2026. The reading was unchanged from the previous release. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0.00 Binary (1=Recession), ranging from 0.00 Binary (1=Recession) to 0.00 Binary (1=Recession) across 11 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 0.00 Binary (1=Recession), unchanged from the prior three. In April readings over the past 3 years, NBER Recession Indicator has averaged 0.00 Binary (1=Recession).
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with S&P 500 (Bullish Stocks). A secondary relationship exists with EUR/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish EUR).
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Leading Index MoM (May 22) and Fed Waller Speech (May 22).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update April 2026.
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NBER Recession Indicator - US
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Wednesday, May 20, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14:30 | US | EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change | -7.864 | -4.306 | -2.9 | -5.38 | Medium |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Distillate Stocks Change | 0.372 | 0.19 | -1.1 | -0.36 | Low |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Gasoline Stocks Change | -1.548 | -4.084 | -2.1 | -1.82 | Medium |
| Thursday, May 21, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Building Permits | 1.442 | 1.363 | 1.39 | 1.53 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Housing Starts MoM | -2.8 | 12 | -3.5 | -3.15 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Housing Starts | 1.465 | 1.507 | 1.41 | 1.44 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Building Permits MoM | 5.8 | -11.5 | 0.5 | 3.15 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Continuing Jobless Claims | 1782 | 1776 | 1790 | 1786.00 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Jobless Claims 4-Week Average | 202.5 | 204 | 203 | 202.75 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index | -0.4 | 26.7 | 18 | 15.73 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Initial Jobless Claims | 209 | 212 | 210 | 209.50 | Medium |
| 13:45 | US | S&P Global Services PMI | 50.9 | 51 | 51.1 | 50.88 | Medium |
| 13:45 | US | S&P Global Composite PMI | 51.7 | 51.7 | 51.5 | 51.60 | Medium |
| 13:45 | US | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI | 55.3 | 54.5 | 53.8 | 53.88 | Medium |
| 14:00 | US | Atlanta Fed GDPNow | 4.3 | 4 | 4 | 3.92 | Medium |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change | 101 | 85 | 95 | 98.00 | Low |
| 15:00 | US | Kansas Fed Manufacturing Index | 9 | 10 | 9 | 9.00 | Low |
| 15:00 | US | Kansas Fed Composite Index | 8 | 10 | 9 | 8.50 | Low |