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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS 8-Week Bill Auction fell to 4.02% in September 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased October 2026
US 8-Week Bill Auction fell to 4.02% in September 2026, released October 2026, down 0.04% from August's 4.05% reading.
Latest Release
4.015000
Actual
—
Consensus
4.050000
Previous
Sigmacast Track Record
Sigmacast track record will appear here once this indicator has been released 3+ times since Sigmanomics began tracking.
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AAPL | ▲ Direct | +0.36 | STOCKS | Moves with | → View |
| GBP/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.30 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
8-Week Bill Auction (United States) was reported at 4.02% in October 2026. The reading fell from the previous value of 4.05%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 3.71%, ranging from 3.54% to 4.05% across 44 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 4.02%, up from the prior three at 3.97%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.14%) is comparable than the prior year (σ 0.14%). In October readings over the past 3 years, 8-Week Bill Auction has averaged 4.2%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with AAPL (Bullish AAPL).
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for October 29, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Initial Jobless Claims (Oct 29) and GDP Price Index QoQ (Oct 29).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
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8-Week Bill Auction - US
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About 8-Week Bill Auction — United States
DEFINITION
The 8-Week Bill Auction is a financial indicator that measures the demand and interest rates for short-term government debt securities. These auctions are held every 8 weeks by the U.S. Treasury Department and provide a benchmark for the cost of borrowing money for the government. The results of these auctions can indicate the overall health of the economy and investor confidence in the government's ability to repay its debts. This indicator is closely monitored by financial analysts and investors as it can impact interest rates and the overall performance of the bond market.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Oct 2026): actual 4.015 %. Prior reading (Oct 2026): 4.05 %. Before that (Oct 2026): 3.98 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Wednesday, October 28, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:30 | US | Wholesale Inventories MoM | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.55 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Inventories Ex Autos MoM | 0.4 | 0.1 | -0.1 | 0.15 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Goods Trade Balance | -134.9 | -132.07 | -130 | -132.45 | High |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Distillate Stocks Change | -1.462 | 1.675 | -0.9 | -1.18 | Low |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change | -1.892 | -3.061 | 0 | -0.95 | Medium |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Gasoline Stocks Change | 3.87 | -2.952 | -0.9 | 1.49 | Medium |
| 18:00 | US | Fed Interest Rate Decision | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4.00 | High |
| Thursday, October 29, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Initial Jobless Claims | 194 | 199 | 197.50 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | GDP Price Index QoQ | 6.1 | 3.2 | 4.55 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE Price Index MoM | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.25 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | PCE Price Index YoY | 3.4 | 3.6 | 3.60 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Personal Income MoM | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.25 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | PCE Price Index MoM | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.50 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE Price Index YoY | 3 | 3.1 | 3.10 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Jobless Claims 4-Week Average | 197.75 | 197 | 193.38 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Continuing Jobless Claims | 1728 | 1720 | 1711.00 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Real Consumer Spending QoQ | 3.8 | 3.9 | 5.30 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | GDP Sales QoQ | 2.8 | 3.5 | 3.90 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Personal Spending MoM | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.60 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | GDP Growth Rate QoQ | 2.2 | 3.2 | 2.90 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE Prices QoQ | 3.3 | 2.4 | 2.35 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | PCE Prices QoQ | 5 | 3.4 | 3.95 | Low | |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change | 77 | 75 | 71.50 | Low | |