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Data from FRED. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS 10-Year Breakeven Inflation fell to 2.23 Percent in July 2026
FREDDailyReleased July 2026
US 10-Year Breakeven Inflation fell to 2.23 Percent in July 2026, down 0.02 Percent from June's 2.25 Percent reading.
Latest Release
2.230000
Actual
—
Consensus
2.250000
Previous
Sigmacast Track Record
Sigmacast track record will appear here once this indicator has been released 3+ times since Sigmanomics began tracking.
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.50 | INDEX | Bullish Stocks | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.45 | FOREX | Bearish EUR | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.40 | FOREX | Bullish USD | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.35 | COMMODITIES | Bearish Gold | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | CRYPTO | Watch | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
10-Year Breakeven Inflation (United States) was reported at 2.23 Percent in July 2026. The reading fell from the previous value of 2.25 Percent. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 2.33 Percent, ranging from 2.18 Percent to 2.50 Percent across 250 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a daily basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 2.24 Percent, up from the prior three at 2.23 Percent. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.07 Percent) is lower than the prior year (σ 0.10 Percent). In July readings over the past 3 years, 10-Year Breakeven Inflation has averaged 2.32 Percent.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with S&P 500 (Bullish Stocks). A secondary relationship exists with EUR/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish EUR).
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Monthly Budget Statement (Jul 13) and Budget Balance (Jul 13).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
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10-Year Breakeven Inflation - US
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About 10-Year Breakeven Inflation — United States
DEFINITION
US 10-Year Breakeven Inflation held steady at 2.25% in July, matching June's closing level. The rate remained unchanged from June 30's 2.24% and July 1's 2.23%, indicating stable inflation expectations. Market pricing reflects this steady outlook ahead of upcoming economic data releases. Updated 7/9/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Inflation prints feed directly into central-bank policy expectations and real-yield calculations, and are among the most rate-sensitive releases on the calendar. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released daily.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jul 2026): actual 2.23 Percent. Prior reading (Jul 2026): 2.25 Percent. Before that (Jul 2026): 2.25 Percent.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with S&P 500 (Bullish Stocks, r=0.50) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Tuesday, July 14, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10:00 | US | NFIB Business Optimism Index | 95.3 | 96 | 94.60 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Inflation Rate YoY | 4.2 | 3.9 | 3.90 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Core Inflation Rate YoY | 2.9 | 2.8 | 2.75 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | CPI s.a | 333.979 | 335.3 | 335.40 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Core Inflation Rate MoM | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.25 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | CPI | 335.12 | 335.1 | 335.00 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Inflation Rate MoM | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.40 | High | |
| Wednesday, July 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Producer Price Index | 157.659 | 159.1 | 159.10 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Producer Price Index YoY | 6.5 | 7.2 | 6.90 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Core PPI YoY | 4.9 | 5.2 | 5.05 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Producer Price Index MoM | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.50 | High | |
| Thursday, July 16, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.40 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales YoY | 6.9 | 6.7 | 6.70 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales Ex Gas/Autos MoM | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.30 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales MoM | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.30 | High | |
| 14:00 | US | Pending Home Sales YoY | 4.8 | 1.3 | 1.30 | Medium | |