United StatesUS MBA Purchase Index fell to 131.4 Points in October 2026
US MBA Purchase Index fell to 131.4 Points in October 2026, released November 2026, down 2.7 Points from September's 134.1 Points reading.
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Forecasts generated by Sigmanomics engine. Not financial advice.
Sigmacast Track Record
Sigmacast track record will appear here once this indicator has been released 3+ times since Sigmanomics began tracking.
Method: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.27 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.26 | CRYPTO | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
MBA Purchase Index (United States) was reported at 131.40 Points in November 2026. The reading fell from the previous value of 134.10 Points. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through November 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 162.48 Points, ranging from 129.20 Points to 193.30 Points across 40 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 131.57 Points, down from the prior three at 144.20 Points. Volatility over the past year (σ 14.55 Points) is lower than the prior year (σ 24.76 Points). In November readings over the past 3 years, MBA Purchase Index has averaged 148.93 Points.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for November 11, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Fed Schmid Speech (Nov 10) and Fed Bowman Speech (Nov 10).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update November 2026.
MBA Purchase Index - US
About MBA Purchase Index — United States
DEFINITION
The MBA Purchase Index is a widely recognized financial indicator that measures the number of mortgage applications for home purchases submitted to lenders. This index provides valuable insight into the current state of the housing market and consumer demand for home ownership. It is used by economists, investors, and industry professionals to track trends and make informed decisions related to the real estate market. The MBA Purchase Index is considered a reliable and timely indicator of the overall health of the housing sector.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Nov 2026): actual 131.4 Points. Prior reading (Oct 2026): 134.1 Points. Before that (Oct 2026, first reported): 129.2 Points.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast is 128.77 Points (latest print 131.4 Points). The 3-month forecast is 123.5 Points. The projection is based on the indicator's own recent trend.
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Monday, November 9, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15:00 | US | Wholesale Inventories MoM | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.65 | Low |
| 15:00 | US | Wholesale Sales MoM | 2.8 | 2 | 1.1 | 1.95 | Low |
| 16:00 | US | Consumer Inflation Expectation | 3.9 | 3.9 | 3.8 | 3.85 | Low |
| 16:30 | US | 3-Month Bill Auction | 4.06 | 4.04 | 4.009 | 4.03 | Low |
| Tuesday, November 10, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 11:00 | US | NFIB Business Optimism Index | 97.8 | 97.9 | 97.7 | 98.30 | Low |
| 13:30 | US | CPI s.a | 337.48 | 336.3 | 337 | 337.17 | High |
| 13:30 | US | Inflation Rate MoM | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.33 | High |
| 13:30 | US | Core Inflation Rate MoM | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.23 | High |
| 13:30 | US | CPI | 337.51 | 336.94 | 337.02 | 337.13 | High |
| 13:55 | US | Redbook YoY | 10.1 | 10.4 | 9.3 | 9.70 | Low |
| 21:30 | US | API Crude Oil Stock Change | -5.267 | -1 | 3.79 | Medium | |
| Wednesday, November 11, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 19:00 | US | Budget Balance | -27 | -298 | -339.85 | Medium | |