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Data from U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS Employment-Population Ratio climbed to 59.2 Percent in August 2026
U.S. Bureau of Labor StatisticsMonthlyReleased September 2026
US Employment-Population Ratio climbed to 59.2 Percent in August 2026, released September 2026, up 0.1 Percent from July's 59.1 Percent reading.
Latest Release
59.200000
Actual
—
Consensus
59.100000
Previous
Sigmacast Track Record
Sigmacast track record will appear here once this indicator has been released 3+ times since Sigmanomics began tracking.
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.62 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| GBP/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.56 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.54 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| NZD/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.48 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| USD/CAD | ▼ Inverse | −0.45 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Employment-Population Ratio (United States) was reported at 59.20 Percent in August 2026. The reading rose from the previous value of 59.10 Percent. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 59.25 Percent, ranging from 58.90 Percent to 59.70 Percent across 11 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 59.07 Percent, down from the prior three at 59.10 Percent. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.23 Percent) is higher than the prior year (σ 0.16 Percent). In September readings over the past 3 years, Employment-Population Ratio has averaged 59.67 Percent.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with USD/JPY (Bearish USD). A secondary relationship exists with GBP/USD, positively correlated (Bullish GBP).
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Fed Bowman Speech (Oct 14) and MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate (Oct 14).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update September 2026.
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Employment-Population Ratio - US
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About Employment-Population Ratio — United States
DEFINITION
The US Employment-Population Ratio for September came in at 59.200000%, unchanged from August’s 59.200000% and up from July’s 58.9%, indicating a stable labor market. The ratio has held steady after a slight dip earlier in the summer, reflecting consistent employment levels relative to the population. Market participants will watch upcoming payroll data for further labor market signals. Updated 10/4/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Sep 2026): actual 59.2 Percent. Prior reading (Aug 2026): 59.1 Percent. Before that (Jul 2026): 58.9 Percent.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with USD/JPY (Bearish USD, r=-0.62) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Tuesday, October 13, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10:00 | US | NFIB Business Optimism Index | 97.9 | 98.7 | 98 | 97.95 | Low |
| 14:00 | US | Existing Home Sales MoM | 1.5 | -3.2 | -0.3 | 0.60 | High |
| 14:00 | US | Existing Home Sales | 3.99 | 3.93 | 3.95 | 3.97 | High |
| 15:30 | US | 3-Month Bill Auction | 4.085 | 4.05 | 4.009 | 4.05 | Low |
| Wednesday, October 14, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Inflation Rate YoY | 3.4 | 3.6 | 3.60 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Core Inflation Rate YoY | 2.4 | 2.5 | 2.50 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | CPI s.a | 334.131 | 335.8 | 335.80 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Core Inflation Rate MoM | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.20 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Inflation Rate MoM | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.60 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | CPI | 334.98 | 336.8 | 336.80 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Inflation Rate | 334.98 | 336.65 | 336.65 | High | |
| 18:00 | US | Budget Balance | -167 | -29 | -29.00 | Medium | |
| Thursday, October 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Producer Price Index YoY | 5.4 | 5.3 | 5.30 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index | 37.8 | 28.4 | 42.60 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | NY Empire State Manufacturing Index | 7.6 | 10.3 | 10.30 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Core PPI YoY | 4.6 | 4.4 | 4.40 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Continuing Jobless Claims | 1716 | 1710 | 1702.50 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | PPI Ex Food, Energy and Trade YoY | 4.7 | 4.7 | 4.70 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Producer Price Index MoM | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.50 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | PPI Ex Food, Energy and Trade MoM | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.30 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Initial Jobless Claims | 197 | 200 | 195.50 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Producer Price Index | 157.411 | 159.1 | 159.10 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Jobless Claims 4-Week Average | 198 | 199 | 198.13 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Core PPI MoM | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.30 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales MoM | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.30 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.45 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales Ex Gas/Autos MoM | 1.2 | 0.2 | 0.25 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales YoY | 6 | 5.2 | 5.20 | High | |
| 13:30 | US | Retail Sales YoY | 6 | 5.2 | 5.20 | High | |
| 13:30 | US | Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.45 | High | |
| 13:30 | US | Retail Sales MoM | 1.2 | 0.1 | 0.10 | High | |
| 13:30 | US | Retail Sales Ex Gas/Autos MoM | 1.2 | 0.2 | 0.25 | High | |
| 14:00 | US | Business Inventories MoM | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.40 | Medium | |