Loading page content
Data from U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS Employment-Population Ratio fell to 58.9 Percent in June 2026
U.S. Bureau of Labor StatisticsMonthlyReleased July 2026
US Employment-Population Ratio fell to 58.9 Percent in June 2026, released July 2026, down 0.1 Percent from May's 59 Percent reading.
Latest Release
58.900000
Actual
—
Consensus
59.000000
Previous
Sigmacast Track Record
Sigmacast track record will appear here once this indicator has been released 3+ times since Sigmanomics began tracking.
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GBP/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.66 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| NZD/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.65 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.59 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| AUD/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.47 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| USD/CAD | ▼ Inverse | −0.47 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Employment-Population Ratio (United States) was reported at 58.90 Percent in June 2026. The reading fell from the previous value of 59.00 Percent. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 59.31 Percent, ranging from 58.90 Percent to 59.70 Percent across 10 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 59.03 Percent, down from the prior three at 59.20 Percent. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.27 Percent) is higher than the prior year (σ 0.17 Percent). In July readings over the past 3 years, Employment-Population Ratio has averaged 59.50 Percent.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with GBP/USD (Bullish GBP). A secondary relationship exists with NZD/USD, positively correlated (Bullish NZD).
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Jackson Hole Symposium (Aug 28) and Chicago PMI (Aug 28).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
SHARE
Employment-Population Ratio - US
Loading chart data...
About Employment-Population Ratio — United States
DEFINITION
The US Employment-Population Ratio for July registered at 58.900000%, down from June’s 59.000000%, marking a slight decline in labor market participation. This decrease continues a gradual downward trend from May’s 59.2% through June’s 59.0%, indicating modest weakening in employment engagement. Market focus remains on upcoming labor reports and Federal Reserve signals amid this subtle contraction. Updated 8/13/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jul 2026): actual 58.9 Percent. Prior reading (Jun 2026): 59 Percent. Before that (May 2026): 59.2 Percent.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with GBP/USD (Bullish GBP, r=0.66) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
Σ
EXPECTED ZONE
SIGMANOMICS MARKET FORECAST ENGINE
Multi-horizon symbol forecasts, Rolling-Surprise economic predictions, and programmatic API access.
Expected Zones · Trade Bias · Confidence Intervals · API Access · 1,456+ instruments
FOREXCRYPTOSTOCKSCOMMODITIESINDICESAPI
BLSBEAFMPWORLD BANKFRED
1,456+ instruments247 indicators530+ correlationsREST + GQL API
4,151 economic indicators127 countries covered6 data sources
FREDBLSEIAECBBOJFMP
Economic Calendar - US Events
| Wednesday, August 26, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:30 | US | Non Defense Goods Orders Ex Air | 0.2 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.35 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Durable Goods Orders MoM | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 1.75 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Durable Goods Orders Ex Transp MoM | 0.4 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.70 | High |
| 12:30 | US | PCE Price Index MoM | 0.2 | -0.1 | 0.1 | 0.10 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Durable Goods Orders Ex Defense MoM | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 1.88 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Corporate Profits QoQ | 8.2 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 1.05 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE Price Index YoY | 3.3 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 3.30 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE Price Index MoM | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.18 | High |
| 12:30 | US | PCE Price Index YoY | 3.7 | 3.7 | 3.6 | 3.63 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Personal Income MoM | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.15 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Personal Spending MoM | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.18 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Real Consumer Spending QoQ | 3.4 | 0.5 | 3.2 | 3.20 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | GDP Growth Rate QoQ | 1.5 | 2.1 | 1.5 | 1.40 | High |
| 12:30 | US | GDP Price Index QoQ | 6.4 | 3.6 | 6.3 | 6.08 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | GDP Sales QoQ | 2.2 | 1.9 | 2.2 | 2.18 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Gross Domestic Product QoQ | 1.5 | 2.1 | 1.5 | 1.40 | High |
| 12:30 | US | PCE Prices QoQ | 5.3 | 4.6 | 5.1 | 5.15 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE Prices QoQ | 3.6 | 4.4 | 3.4 | 3.48 | Low |
| 14:10 | US | Atlanta Fed GDPNow | 4.6 | 4 | 4 | 4.03 | Medium |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Distillate Stocks Change | -2.228 | -1.53 | -1.6 | -2.03 | Low |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Gasoline Stocks Change | -2.536 | 0.688 | -0.7 | -1.20 | Medium |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change | 0.095 | 4.405 | 0.6 | 0.67 | Medium |
| Thursday, August 27, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Goods Trade Balance Adv | -118.8 | -101.41 | -99 | -108.90 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Jobless Claims 4-Week Average | 205.5 | 204.25 | 203 | 203.13 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Initial Jobless Claims | 203 | 207 | 208 | 207.75 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Inventories Ex Autos MoM | 0.7 | -0.5 | 0 | 0.35 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Wholesale Inventories MoM | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.70 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Continuing Jobless Claims | 1778 | 1796 | 1790 | 1788.50 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Goods Trade Balance | -118.8 | -101.41 | -99 | -108.90 | High |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change | 15 | 16 | 20 | 17.75 | Low |
| 15:00 | US | Kansas Fed Manufacturing Index | 17 | 17 | 14 | 15.50 | Low |
| 15:00 | US | Kansas Fed Composite Index | 10 | 9 | 8 | 9.00 | Low |