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Data from U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS Employment-Population Ratio fell to 59 Percent in May 2026
U.S. Bureau of Labor StatisticsMonthlyReleased June 2026
US Employment-Population Ratio fell to 59 Percent in May 2026, released June 2026, down 0.2 Percent from April's 59.2 Percent reading.
Latest Release
59.000000
Actual
—
Consensus
59.200000
Previous
Sigmacast Track Record
Sigmacast track record will appear here once this indicator has been released 3+ times since Sigmanomics began tracking.
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GBP/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.68 | FOREX | Bullish GBP | → View |
| NZD/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.66 | FOREX | Bullish NZD | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.49 | FOREX | Bullish EUR | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.49 | CRYPTO | Bullish BTC | → View |
| USD/CAD | ▼ Inverse | −0.46 | FOREX | Bearish USD | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Employment-Population Ratio (United States) was reported at 59.00 Percent in May 2026. The reading fell from the previous value of 59.20 Percent. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 59.38 Percent, ranging from 59.00 Percent to 59.70 Percent across 10 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 59.10 Percent, down from the prior three at 59.30 Percent. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.24 Percent) is higher than the prior year (σ 0.16 Percent). In June readings over the past 3 years, Employment-Population Ratio has averaged 59.57 Percent.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with GBP/USD (Bullish GBP). A secondary relationship exists with NZD/USD, positively correlated (Bullish NZD).
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Monthly Budget Statement (Jul 13) and Budget Balance (Jul 13).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update June 2026.
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Employment-Population Ratio - US
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About Employment-Population Ratio — United States
DEFINITION
The US Employment-Population Ratio rose to 59.200000% in May, up from April’s 59.100000%, marking a modest increase. This continues a gradual downward trend from the 59.7% levels seen late last year. Labor market conditions remain steady ahead of upcoming June employment data. Updated 6/11/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jun 2026): actual 59 Percent. Prior reading (May 2026): 59.2 Percent. Before that (Apr 2026): 59.1 Percent.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with GBP/USD (Bullish GBP, r=0.68) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Tuesday, July 14, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10:00 | US | NFIB Business Optimism Index | 95.3 | 96 | 96.00 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Core Inflation Rate YoY | 2.9 | 2.8 | 2.75 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Inflation Rate YoY | 4.2 | 3.9 | 3.90 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | CPI s.a | 333.979 | 335.3 | 335.40 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Core Inflation Rate MoM | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.25 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | CPI | 335.12 | 335.1 | 335.00 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Inflation Rate MoM | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.40 | High | |
| Wednesday, July 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Producer Price Index | 157.659 | 159.1 | 159.10 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Producer Price Index YoY | 6.5 | 7.2 | 7.20 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Core PPI YoY | 4.9 | 5.2 | 5.20 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Producer Price Index MoM | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.80 | High | |