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Data from U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS Unemployment Rate (U-3) fell to 4.1 Percent in June 2026
U.S. Bureau of Labor StatisticsMonthlyReleased July 2026
US Unemployment Rate (U-3) fell to 4.1 Percent in June 2026, released July 2026, down 0.1 Percent from May's 4.2 Percent reading.
Latest Release
4.100000
Actual
—
Consensus
4.200000
Previous
Sigmacast Track Record
Sigmacast track record will appear here once this indicator has been released 3+ times since Sigmanomics began tracking.
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD/CAD | ▼ Inverse | −0.48 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| GOOGL | ▲ Direct | +0.46 | STOCKS | Moves with | → View |
| AUD/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.39 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| USD/CHF | ▼ Inverse | −0.30 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| NZD/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.26 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Unemployment Rate (U-3) (United States) was reported at 4.10 Percent in June 2026. The reading fell from the previous value of 4.20 Percent. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 4.31 Percent, ranging from 4.10 Percent to 4.50 Percent across 9 releases. This is classified as a critical-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 4.20 Percent, down from the prior three at 4.33 Percent. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.11 Percent) is comparable than the prior year (σ 0.11 Percent). In July readings over the past 3 years, Unemployment Rate (U-3) has averaged 4.20 Percent.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with USD/CAD (Bearish USD). A secondary relationship exists with GOOGL, positively correlated (Bullish GOOGL).
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include OPEC Monthly Report (Sep 10) and Initial Jobless Claims (Sep 10).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
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Unemployment Rate (U-3) - US
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About Unemployment Rate (U-3) — United States
DEFINITION
US Unemployment Rate (U-3) for July came in at 4.100000%, down from June’s 4.200000%, marking a continued decline in joblessness. The rate has steadily decreased from May’s 4.3%, indicating ongoing labor market tightening. Markets will watch upcoming payroll data closely amid this downward trend. Updated 8/13/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. Releases in this category are tier-1 market events that frequently produce same-session cross-asset repricing. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jul 2026): actual 4.1 Percent. Prior reading (Jun 2026): 4.2 Percent. Before that (May 2026): 4.3 Percent.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with USD/CAD (Bearish USD, r=-0.48) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
Σ
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Wednesday, September 9, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21:00 | US | API Crude Oil Stock Change | -0.3 | -2.6 | -1.3 | -0.80 | Medium |
| Thursday, September 10, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | PPI Ex Food, Energy and Trade YoY | 4.7 | 4.4 | 4.75 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Producer Price Index | 156.563 | 157 | 157.08 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Core PPI YoY | 4.2 | 4.6 | 4.35 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Continuing Jobless Claims | 1779 | 1780 | 1787.50 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Initial Jobless Claims | 206 | 205 | 210.00 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Core PPI MoM | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.25 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Producer Price Index MoM | 0 | 0.4 | 0.60 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Producer Price Index YoY | 4.7 | 5.3 | 5.35 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | PPI Ex Food, Energy and Trade MoM | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.55 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Jobless Claims 4-Week Average | 207.25 | 206 | 207.25 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | Existing Home Sales | 4.06 | 3.98 | 3.98 | High | |
| 14:00 | US | Existing Home Sales MoM | -1.7 | -0.2 | -0.20 | Medium | |
| Friday, September 11, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Inflation Rate YoY | 3.4 | 3.4 | 3.40 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | CPI s.a | 332.81 | 334.14 | 334.14 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Core Inflation Rate MoM | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.20 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Core Inflation Rate YoY | 2.5 | 2.4 | 2.40 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Inflation Rate MoM | 0.1 | 0.4 | 0.40 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | CPI | 333.92 | 334.85 | 334.85 | Medium | |
| 14:00 | US | Michigan Current Conditions | 51.9 | 51.3 | 52.40 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | Michigan Consumer Expectations | 51.5 | 50.5 | 53.00 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | Michigan 5 Year Inflation Expectations | 3.3 | 3.2 | 3.00 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | Michigan Consumer Sentiment | 51.7 | 51 | 52.45 | High | |
| 14:00 | US | Michigan Inflation Expectations | 4 | 3.9 | 3.80 | Low | |
| 18:00 | US | Monthly Budget Statement | -432 | -480 | -480.00 | Medium | |
| 18:00 | US | Budget Balance | -432 | -202.5 | -202.50 | Medium | |