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Data from FRED. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS Labor Force Participation Rate held to 61.4 Percent in June 2026
FREDMonthlyReleased July 2026
US Labor Force Participation Rate held to 61.4 Percent in June 2026, released July 2026.
Latest Release
61.400000
Actual
—
Consensus
61.400000
Previous
Sigmacast Track Record
Sigmacast track record will appear here once this indicator has been released 3+ times since Sigmanomics began tracking.
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | ▼ Inverse | −0.51 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| GOOGL | ▼ Inverse | −0.46 | STOCKS | Moves against | → View |
| AAPL | ▼ Inverse | −0.40 | STOCKS | Moves against | → View |
| NZD/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.31 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| GBP/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.28 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Labor Force Participation Rate (United States) was reported at 61.40 Percent in June 2026. The reading was unchanged from the previous release. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 61.99 Percent, ranging from 61.40 Percent to 62.50 Percent across 10 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 61.57 Percent, down from the prior three at 61.90 Percent. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.37 Percent) is higher than the prior year (σ 0.14 Percent). In July readings over the past 3 years, Labor Force Participation Rate has averaged 62.10 Percent.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with S&P 500 (Bearish S&P 500). A secondary relationship exists with GOOGL, negatively correlated (Bearish GOOGL).
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Chicago PMI (Aug 28) and Michigan 1 Year Inflation Expectations (Aug 28).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
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Labor Force Participation Rate - US
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About Labor Force Participation Rate — United States
DEFINITION
The US Labor Force Participation Rate for July came in at 61.400000%, down from June’s 61.500000%, marking a slight decline in workforce engagement. This decrease continues the gradual downward trend observed since February’s 62.0%. Market focus remains on upcoming employment data and Federal Reserve signals amid this softening participation. Updated 8/8/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jul 2026): actual 61.4 Percent. Prior reading (Jun 2026): 61.5 Percent. Before that (May 2026): 61.8 Percent.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with S&P 500 (Bearish S&P 500, r=-0.51) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Thursday, August 27, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:30 | US | Goods Trade Balance Adv | -118.8 | -101.41 | -99 | -102.92 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Jobless Claims 4-Week Average | 205.5 | 204.25 | 203 | 204.25 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Initial Jobless Claims | 203 | 207 | 208 | 205.50 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Inventories Ex Autos MoM | 0.7 | -0.5 | 0 | 0.27 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Wholesale Inventories MoM | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.38 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Continuing Jobless Claims | 1778 | 1796 | 1790 | 1784.00 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Goods Trade Balance | -118.8 | -101.41 | -99 | -102.88 | High |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change | 15 | 16 | 20 | 17.50 | Low |
| 15:00 | US | Kansas Fed Manufacturing Index | 17 | 17 | 14 | 15.50 | Low |
| 15:00 | US | Kansas Fed Composite Index | 10 | 9 | 8 | 9.00 | Low |
| Friday, August 28, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 13:45 | US | Chicago PMI | 57.6 | 57 | 63.10 | Medium | |
| 14:00 | US | Michigan 1 Year Inflation Expectations | 4.2 | 4.3 | 4.30 | Medium | |
| 14:00 | US | Michigan Inflation Expectations | 4.3 | 4.2 | 4.3 | 4.30 | Low |
| 14:00 | US | Michigan 5 Year Inflation Expectations | 3.3 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 3.30 | Low |
| 14:00 | US | Michigan Consumer Sentiment | 51 | 55.2 | 51 | 51.00 | High |
| 14:00 | US | Michigan Consumer Expectations | 50.6 | 55.4 | 50.6 | 50.60 | Low |
| 14:00 | US | Michigan Current Conditions | 51.8 | 54.8 | 51.8 | 51.80 | Low |
| 15:00 | US | Kansas Fed Manufacturing Index | 17 | 14 | 15.50 | Low | |
| 15:00 | US | Kansas Fed Composite Index | 9 | 8 | 9.00 | Low | |