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Data from FRED. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS Labor Force Participation Rate held to 61.8 Percent in August 2026
FREDMonthlyReleased September 2026
US Labor Force Participation Rate held to 61.8 Percent in August 2026, released September 2026.
Latest Release
61.800000
Actual
—
Consensus
61.800000
Previous
Sigmacast Track Record
Sigmacast track record will appear here once this indicator has been released 3+ times since Sigmanomics began tracking.
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | ▼ Inverse | −0.37 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| MSFT | ▲ Direct | +0.32 | STOCKS | Moves with | → View |
| USD/CAD | ▼ Inverse | −0.30 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Labor Force Participation Rate (United States) was reported at 61.80 Percent in August 2026. The reading was unchanged from the previous release. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 61.89 Percent, ranging from 61.40 Percent to 62.50 Percent across 11 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 61.60 Percent, down from the prior three at 61.70 Percent. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.33 Percent) is higher than the prior year (σ 0.12 Percent). In September readings over the past 3 years, Labor Force Participation Rate has averaged 62.33 Percent.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with S&P 500 (Bearish S&P 500). A secondary relationship exists with MSFT, positively correlated (Bullish MSFT).
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Fed Bowman Speech (Oct 14) and MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate (Oct 14).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update September 2026.
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Labor Force Participation Rate - US
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About Labor Force Participation Rate — United States
DEFINITION
US Labor Force Participation Rate rose to 61.8% in August, up from July’s 61.4%, marking a clear rebound. The increase from July to August signals a strengthening labor market engagement after a slight dip in June. Market focus remains on upcoming employment data and Federal Reserve policy amid steady participation gains. Updated 10/3/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Sep 2026): actual 61.8 Percent. Prior reading (Aug 2026): 61.6 Percent. Before that (Jul 2026): 61.4 Percent.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Tuesday, October 13, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10:00 | US | NFIB Business Optimism Index | 97.9 | 98.7 | 98 | 97.95 | Low |
| 14:00 | US | Existing Home Sales MoM | 1.5 | -3.2 | -0.3 | 0.60 | High |
| 14:00 | US | Existing Home Sales | 3.99 | 3.93 | 3.95 | 3.97 | High |
| 15:30 | US | 3-Month Bill Auction | 4.085 | 4.05 | 4.009 | 4.05 | Low |
| Wednesday, October 14, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Inflation Rate YoY | 3.4 | 3.6 | 3.60 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Core Inflation Rate YoY | 2.4 | 2.5 | 2.50 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | CPI s.a | 334.131 | 335.8 | 335.80 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Core Inflation Rate MoM | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.20 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Inflation Rate MoM | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.60 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | CPI | 334.98 | 336.8 | 336.80 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Inflation Rate | 334.98 | 336.65 | 336.65 | High | |
| 18:00 | US | Budget Balance | -167 | -29 | -29.00 | Medium | |
| Thursday, October 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Producer Price Index YoY | 5.4 | 5.3 | 5.30 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index | 37.8 | 28.4 | 42.60 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | NY Empire State Manufacturing Index | 7.6 | 10.3 | 10.30 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Core PPI YoY | 4.6 | 4.4 | 4.40 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Continuing Jobless Claims | 1716 | 1710 | 1702.50 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | PPI Ex Food, Energy and Trade YoY | 4.7 | 4.7 | 4.70 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Producer Price Index MoM | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.50 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | PPI Ex Food, Energy and Trade MoM | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.30 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Initial Jobless Claims | 197 | 200 | 195.50 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Producer Price Index | 157.411 | 159.1 | 159.10 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Jobless Claims 4-Week Average | 198 | 199 | 198.13 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Core PPI MoM | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.30 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales MoM | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.30 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.45 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales Ex Gas/Autos MoM | 1.2 | 0.2 | 0.25 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales YoY | 6 | 5.2 | 5.20 | High | |
| 13:30 | US | Retail Sales YoY | 6 | 5.2 | 5.20 | High | |
| 13:30 | US | Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.45 | High | |
| 13:30 | US | Retail Sales MoM | 1.2 | 0.1 | 0.10 | High | |
| 13:30 | US | Retail Sales Ex Gas/Autos MoM | 1.2 | 0.2 | 0.25 | High | |
| 14:00 | US | Business Inventories MoM | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.40 | Medium | |