United StatesUS 4-Week Bill Auction fell to 3.89% in October 2026
US 4-Week Bill Auction fell to 3.89% in October 2026, released November 2026, down 0.02% from September's 3.91% reading.
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Forecasts generated by Sigmanomics engine. Not financial advice.
Sigmacast Track Record
Sigmacast track record will appear here once this indicator has been released 3+ times since Sigmanomics began tracking.
Method: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.32 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| AAPL | ▲ Direct | +0.27 | STOCKS | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
4-Week Bill Auction (United States) was reported at 3.89% in November 2026. The reading fell from the previous value of 3.91%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through November 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 3.7%, ranging from 3.55% to 4% across 45 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 3.92%, down from the prior three at 3.96%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.13%) is comparable than the prior year (σ 0.13%). In November readings over the past 3 years, 4-Week Bill Auction has averaged 4.51%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with USD/JPY (Bullish USD).
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for November 12, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Fed Schmid Speech (Nov 10) and Fed Bowman Speech (Nov 10).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update November 2026.
4-Week Bill Auction - US
About 4-Week Bill Auction — United States
DEFINITION
The 4-Week Bill Auction is a financial indicator that measures the demand for short-term government debt securities. It is a type of auction where the US Treasury Department sells 4-week Treasury bills to investors, with the interest rate determined by the highest bid. This indicator is closely monitored by investors and analysts as it reflects the current sentiment towards the US economy and the government's ability to borrow money. A high demand for these bills indicates confidence in the economy, while a low demand may signal concerns about the government's financial stability.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Nov 2026): actual 3.89 %. Prior reading (Oct 2026): 3.91 %. Before that (Oct 2026, first reported): 3.945 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast is 3.85% (latest print 3.89%). The 3-month forecast is 3.78%. The projection is based on the indicator's own recent trend.
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Monday, November 9, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15:00 | US | Wholesale Inventories MoM | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.65 | Low |
| 15:00 | US | Wholesale Sales MoM | 2.8 | 2 | 1.1 | 1.95 | Low |
| 16:00 | US | Consumer Inflation Expectation | 3.9 | 3.9 | 3.8 | 3.85 | Low |
| 16:30 | US | 3-Month Bill Auction | 4.06 | 4.04 | 4.009 | 4.03 | Low |
| Tuesday, November 10, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 11:00 | US | NFIB Business Optimism Index | 97.8 | 97.9 | 97.7 | 98.30 | Low |
| 13:30 | US | CPI s.a | 337.48 | 336.3 | 337 | 337.17 | High |
| 13:30 | US | Inflation Rate MoM | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.33 | High |
| 13:30 | US | Core Inflation Rate MoM | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.23 | High |
| 13:30 | US | CPI | 337.51 | 336.94 | 337.02 | 337.13 | High |
| 13:55 | US | Redbook YoY | 10.1 | 10.4 | 9.3 | 9.70 | Low |
| 21:30 | US | API Crude Oil Stock Change | -5.267 | -1 | 3.79 | Medium | |
| Wednesday, November 11, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 19:00 | US | Budget Balance | -27 | -298 | -339.85 | Medium | |