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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS 4-Week Bill Auction climbed to 3.64% in July 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased August 2026
US 4-Week Bill Auction climbed to 3.64% in July 2026, released August 2026, up 0.01% from June's 3.63% reading.
Latest Release
3.640000
Actual
—
Consensus
3.630000
Previous
Sigmacast Track Record
Sigmacast track record will appear here once this indicator has been released 3+ times since Sigmanomics began tracking.
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GOOGL | ▼ Inverse | −0.42 | STOCKS | Moves against | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.34 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▼ Inverse | −0.32 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| MSFT | ▼ Inverse | −0.26 | STOCKS | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
4-Week Bill Auction (United States) was reported at 3.64% in August 2026. The reading rose from the previous value of 3.63%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through August 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 3.77%, ranging from 3.55% to 4.3% across 44 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 3.67%, up from the prior three at 3.63%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.22%) is lower than the prior year (σ 0.33%). In August readings over the past 3 years, 4-Week Bill Auction has averaged 4.87%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with GOOGL (Bearish GOOGL). A secondary relationship exists with USD/JPY, positively correlated (Bullish USD).
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for August 13, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Fed Bowman Speech (Aug 8) and Existing Home Sales MoM (Aug 11).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update August 2026.
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4-Week Bill Auction - US
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About 4-Week Bill Auction — United States
DEFINITION
The 4-Week Bill Auction is a financial indicator that measures the demand for short-term government debt securities. It is a type of auction where the US Treasury Department sells 4-week Treasury bills to investors, with the interest rate determined by the highest bid. This indicator is closely monitored by investors and analysts as it reflects the current sentiment towards the US economy and the government's ability to borrow money. A high demand for these bills indicates confidence in the economy, while a low demand may signal concerns about the government's financial stability.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Aug 2026): actual 3.64 %. Prior reading (Jul 2026): 3.63 %. Before that (Jul 2026): 3.73 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook diverging from that direction. The 1-month and 3-month horizons disagree, suggesting a mixed signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with GOOGL (Bearish GOOGL, r=-0.42) — a useful reference for stocks-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Friday, August 7, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:30 | US | Participation Rate | 61.4 | 61.5 | 61.6 | 61.50 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | U-6 Unemployment Rate | 7.9 | 7.9 | 7.9 | 7.90 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Non Farm Payrolls | -23 | 20 | 80 | 28.50 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Average Hourly Earnings YoY | 3.2 | 3.4 | 3.5 | 3.35 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Unemployment Rate | 4.1 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 4.15 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Average Weekly Hours | 34.3 | 34.3 | 34.3 | 34.30 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Manufacturing Payrolls | 5 | 11 | 4 | 4.50 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Government Payrolls | -53 | -10 | 10 | -21.50 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Nonfarm Payrolls Private | 30 | 30 | 78 | 54.00 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Average Hourly Earnings MoM | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.20 | Medium |
| 15:00 | US | Consumer Inflation Expectation | 3.6 | 3.7 | 3.8 | 3.70 | Low |
| 17:00 | US | Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count | 454 | 451 | 452 | 453.00 | Low |
| 19:00 | US | Consumer Credit Change | 14.17 | -1.08 | 10.5 | 12.34 | Low |
| Tuesday, August 11, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 10:00 | US | NFIB Business Optimism Index | 97.4 | 97.1 | 97.00 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | Existing Home Sales MoM | -2.4 | -0.7 | -1.65 | Medium | |
| 14:00 | US | Existing Home Sales | 4.09 | 4.07 | 4.05 | High | |
| Wednesday, August 12, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Core Inflation Rate MoM | 0 | 0.2 | 0.25 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Inflation Rate MoM | -0.4 | 0.1 | 0.10 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Core Inflation Rate YoY | 2.6 | 2.5 | 2.55 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | CPI | 333.95 | 334.03 | 334.39 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | CPI s.a | 332.568 | 332.6 | 332.85 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Inflation Rate YoY | 3.5 | 3.4 | 3.45 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Core CPI YoY | 2.6 | 2.5 | 2.50 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | CPI YoY | 3.5 | 3.4 | 3.45 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | CPI MoM | -0.4 | 0.1 | 0.10 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Core CPI MoM | 0 | 0.2 | 0.20 | High | |
| 18:00 | US | Monthly Budget Statement | -120 | -340 | -342.50 | Medium | |