United StatesUS Philly Fed CAPEX Index fell to -4.5 in August 2023
US Philly Fed CAPEX Index fell to -4.5 in August 2023, down 13.1 from July's 8.6 reading. The reading missed the 9.2 consensus by 13.7. Philly Fed CAPEX Index has now declined for 3 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Philly Fed CAPEX Index averaged 9.25, vs -2.23 in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 6th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
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Forecasts generated by Sigmanomics engine. Not financial advice.
Median Absolute Error
across last 5 releases
Last Call
Aug 2023
Method: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.46 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
| AAPL | ▼ Inverse | −0.29 | STOCKS | Moves against | → View |
| AUD/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.25 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Philly Fed CAPEX Index (United States) was reported at 34.90 in October 2026. The reading fell from the previous value of 37.10. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 31.81, ranging from 14.40 to 48.20 across 11 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 40.07, up from the prior three at 34.07. Volatility over the past year (σ 8.36) is lower than the prior year (σ 10.39). In October readings over the past 3 years, Philly Fed CAPEX Index has averaged 27.87.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with XAU/USD (Bearish XAU).
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for November 19, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Fed Schmid Speech (Nov 10) and Fed Bowman Speech (Nov 10).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
Philly Fed CAPEX Index - US
About Philly Fed CAPEX Index — United States
DEFINITION
The Philly Fed CAPEX Index is a key financial indicator that measures the level of capital expenditures made by businesses in the Philadelphia region. This index provides valuable insights into the health and growth potential of the local economy, as well as the overall business climate. It is widely used by investors, economists, and policymakers to assess the strength of business investment and its impact on the regional economy. With its timely and accurate data, the Philly Fed CAPEX Index is a valuable tool for making informed financial decisions.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Oct 2026): actual 34.9. Prior reading (Sep 2026): 37.1. Before that (Aug 2026, first reported): 48.2.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast is 36.5 (latest print -4.5). The 3-month forecast is 39.7. The projection is based on the indicator's own recent trend. This indicator correlates most strongly with XAU/USD (Bearish XAU, r=-0.46) — a useful reference for commodities-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Monday, November 9, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15:00 | US | Wholesale Inventories MoM | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.65 | Low |
| 15:00 | US | Wholesale Sales MoM | 2.8 | 2 | 1.1 | 1.95 | Low |
| 16:00 | US | Consumer Inflation Expectation | 3.9 | 3.9 | 3.8 | 3.85 | Low |
| 16:30 | US | 3-Month Bill Auction | 4.06 | 4.04 | 4.009 | 4.03 | Low |
| Tuesday, November 10, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 11:00 | US | NFIB Business Optimism Index | 97.8 | 97.9 | 97.7 | 98.30 | Low |
| 13:30 | US | CPI s.a | 337.48 | 336.3 | 337 | 337.17 | High |
| 13:30 | US | Inflation Rate MoM | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.33 | High |
| 13:30 | US | Core Inflation Rate MoM | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.23 | High |
| 13:30 | US | CPI | 337.51 | 336.94 | 337.02 | 337.13 | High |
| 13:55 | US | Redbook YoY | 10.1 | 10.4 | 9.3 | 9.70 | Low |
| 21:30 | US | API Crude Oil Stock Change | -5.267 | -1 | 3.79 | Medium | |
| Wednesday, November 11, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 19:00 | US | Budget Balance | -27 | -298 | -339.85 | Medium | |