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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS Philly Fed CAPEX Index fell to -4.5 in August 2023
FMPMonthlyReleased August 2023
US Philly Fed CAPEX Index fell to -4.5 in August 2023, down 13.1 from July's 8.6 reading. The reading missed the 9.2 consensus by 13.7. Philly Fed CAPEX Index has now declined for 3 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Philly Fed CAPEX Index averaged 9.25, vs -2.23 in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 6th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
-4.5
Actual
9.2
Consensus
8.6
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±13.7
across last 5 releases
Last Call
Aug 2023
Predicted: 12.63
Actual: -4.5
Error: +17.13
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NZD/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.67 | FOREX | Bullish NZD | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.52 | FOREX | Bearish USD | → View |
| GBP/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.51 | FOREX | Bullish GBP | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.50 | CRYPTO | Bearish BTC | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.38 | FOREX | Bullish EUR | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Philly Fed CAPEX Index (United States) was reported at 30.90 in May 2026. The reading fell from the previous value of 35.20. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through May 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 24.19, ranging from 12.50 to 38.40 across 11 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 23.70, down from the prior three at 29.10. Volatility over the past year (σ 8.02) is lower than the prior year (σ 9.68). In May readings over the past 3 years, Philly Fed CAPEX Index has averaged 26.00.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with NZD/USD (Bullish NZD). A secondary relationship exists with USD/JPY, negatively correlated (Bearish USD).
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for June 18, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate (Jun 17) and Retail Sales MoM (Jun 17).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update May 2026.
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Philly Fed CAPEX Index - US
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About Philly Fed CAPEX Index — United States
DEFINITION
The Philly Fed CAPEX Index is a key financial indicator that measures the level of capital expenditures made by businesses in the Philadelphia region. This index provides valuable insights into the health and growth potential of the local economy, as well as the overall business climate. It is widely used by investors, economists, and policymakers to assess the strength of business investment and its impact on the regional economy. With its timely and accurate data, the Philly Fed CAPEX Index is a valuable tool for making informed financial decisions.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (May 2026): actual 30.9. Prior reading (Apr 2026): 35.2. Before that (Mar 2026): 25.8.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with NZD/USD (Bullish NZD, r=0.67) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.