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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS Philly Fed CAPEX Index fell to -4.5 in August 2023
FMPMonthlyReleased August 2023
US Philly Fed CAPEX Index fell to -4.5 in August 2023, down 13.1 from July's 8.6 reading. The reading missed the 9.2 consensus by 13.7. Philly Fed CAPEX Index has now declined for 3 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Philly Fed CAPEX Index averaged 9.25, vs -2.23 in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 6th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
-4.5
Actual
9.2
Consensus
8.6
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±13.7
across last 5 releases
Last Call
Aug 2023
Predicted: 12.63
Actual: -4.5
Error: +17.13
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.58 | CRYPTO | Moves against | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.50 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| NZD/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.50 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.29 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| GBP/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.25 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Philly Fed CAPEX Index (United States) was reported at 30.10 in July 2026. The reading fell from the previous value of 41.20. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through July 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 27.80, ranging from 12.50 to 41.20 across 11 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 34.07, up from the prior three at 23.50. Volatility over the past year (σ 8.23) is comparable than the prior year (σ 9.00). In July readings over the past 3 years, Philly Fed CAPEX Index has averaged 18.20.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with BTC/USD (Bearish BTC). A secondary relationship exists with USD/JPY, negatively correlated (Bearish USD).
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for August 20, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Existing Home Sales MoM (Aug 11) and Existing Home Sales (Aug 11).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
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Philly Fed CAPEX Index - US
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About Philly Fed CAPEX Index — United States
DEFINITION
The Philly Fed CAPEX Index is a key financial indicator that measures the level of capital expenditures made by businesses in the Philadelphia region. This index provides valuable insights into the health and growth potential of the local economy, as well as the overall business climate. It is widely used by investors, economists, and policymakers to assess the strength of business investment and its impact on the regional economy. With its timely and accurate data, the Philly Fed CAPEX Index is a valuable tool for making informed financial decisions.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jul 2026): actual 30.1. Prior reading (Jun 2026): 41.2. Before that (May 2026): 30.9.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with BTC/USD (Bearish BTC, r=-0.58) — a useful reference for crypto-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Tuesday, August 11, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10:00 | US | NFIB Business Optimism Index | 97.4 | 97.8 | 97.70 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | Existing Home Sales MoM | -2.4 | -0.7 | -1.65 | Medium | |
| 14:00 | US | Existing Home Sales | 4.09 | 4.07 | 4.05 | High | |
| Wednesday, August 12, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Core Inflation Rate MoM | 0 | 0.2 | 0.25 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Inflation Rate MoM | -0.4 | 0.1 | 0.10 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Inflation Rate YoY | 3.5 | 3.4 | 3.45 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Core Inflation Rate YoY | 2.6 | 2.5 | 2.55 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | CPI | 333.95 | 334.03 | 334.39 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | CPI s.a | 332.568 | 332.6 | 332.85 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Core CPI YoY | 2.6 | 2.5 | 2.50 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | CPI YoY | 3.5 | 3.4 | 3.45 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | CPI MoM | -0.4 | 0.1 | 0.10 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Core CPI MoM | 0 | 0.2 | 0.20 | High | |
| 18:00 | US | Monthly Budget Statement | -120 | -294.6 | -297.10 | Medium | |
| 18:00 | US | Budget Balance | -120 | -294.6 | -265.70 | Medium | |
| Thursday, August 13, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Continuing Jobless Claims | 1801 | 1799 | 1799.00 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Initial Jobless Claims | 199 | 198 | 198.00 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Core PPI YoY | 4.7 | 4.7 | 5.15 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Core PPI MoM | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.55 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Producer Price Index MoM | -0.3 | 0.1 | 0.55 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Jobless Claims 4-Week Average | 198.75 | 197 | 197.00 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | PPI Ex Food, Energy and Trade YoY | 5.1 | 5.1 | 5.45 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | PPI Ex Food, Energy and Trade MoM | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.25 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Producer Price Index | 156.566 | 156.41 | 157.36 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Producer Price Index YoY | 5.5 | 5 | 5.55 | Low | |