Loading page content
Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS Philly Fed CAPEX Index fell to -4.5 in August 2023
FMPMonthlyReleased August 2023
US Philly Fed CAPEX Index fell to -4.5 in August 2023, down 13.1 from July's 8.6 reading. The reading missed the 9.2 consensus by 13.7. Philly Fed CAPEX Index has now declined for 3 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Philly Fed CAPEX Index averaged 9.25, vs -2.23 in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 6th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
-4.5
Actual
9.2
Consensus
8.6
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±13.7
across last 5 releases
Last Call
Aug 2023
Predicted: 12.63
Actual: -4.5
Error: +17.13
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.40 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| AUD/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.38 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.30 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
| AAPL | ▼ Inverse | −0.28 | STOCKS | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Philly Fed CAPEX Index (United States) was reported at 37.10 in September 2026. The reading fell from the previous value of 48.20. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through September 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 30.93, ranging from 14.40 to 48.20 across 11 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 38.47, up from the prior three at 32.63. Volatility over the past year (σ 8.49) is lower than the prior year (σ 10.34). In September readings over the past 3 years, Philly Fed CAPEX Index has averaged 24.87.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with USD/JPY (Bearish USD). A secondary relationship exists with AUD/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish AUD).
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for October 15, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate (Sep 23) and S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Sep 23).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update September 2026.
SHARE
Philly Fed CAPEX Index - US
Loading chart data...
About Philly Fed CAPEX Index — United States
DEFINITION
The Philly Fed CAPEX Index is a key financial indicator that measures the level of capital expenditures made by businesses in the Philadelphia region. This index provides valuable insights into the health and growth potential of the local economy, as well as the overall business climate. It is widely used by investors, economists, and policymakers to assess the strength of business investment and its impact on the regional economy. With its timely and accurate data, the Philly Fed CAPEX Index is a valuable tool for making informed financial decisions.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Sep 2026): actual 37.1. Prior reading (Aug 2026): 48.2. Before that (Jul 2026): 30.1.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection.
Σ
EXPECTED ZONE
SIGMANOMICS MARKET FORECAST ENGINE
Multi-horizon symbol forecasts, Rolling-Surprise economic predictions, and programmatic API access.
Expected Zones · Trade Bias · Confidence Intervals · API Access · 1,456+ instruments
FOREXCRYPTOSTOCKSCOMMODITIESINDICESAPI
BLSBEAFMPWORLD BANKFRED
1,456+ instruments247 indicators530+ correlationsREST + GQL API
4,151 economic indicators127 countries covered6 data sources
FREDBLSEIAECBBOJFMP
Economic Calendar - US Events
| Tuesday, September 22, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14:00 | US | Richmond Fed Manufacturing Shipments Index | -5 | 11 | 9 | 2.00 | Low |
| 14:00 | US | Richmond Fed Services Index | 0 | -8 | -6 | -3.00 | Low |
| 14:00 | US | Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index | -2 | 4 | 5 | 1.50 | Low |
| 20:30 | US | API Crude Oil Stock Change | 1.786 | 7.14 | -0.5 | 0.64 | Medium |
| 21:00 | US | API Crude Oil Stock Change | 1.786 | 7.14 | -0.5 | 0.64 | Medium |
| Wednesday, September 23, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 13:45 | US | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI | 53.9 | 53.6 | 53.60 | Medium | |
| 13:45 | US | S&P Global Composite PMI | 56 | 55.2 | 55.20 | Medium | |
| 13:45 | US | S&P Global Services PMI | 56.5 | 56 | 56.00 | Medium | |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change | -0.64 | -0.6 | -0.60 | Medium | |
| Thursday, September 24, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Initial Jobless Claims | 196 | 201 | 196.00 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Current Account | -226.8 | -255 | -255.00 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Jobless Claims 4-Week Average | 203.25 | 203 | 202.13 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Continuing Jobless Claims | 1730 | 1750 | 1760.50 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Building Permits MoM | -2.7 | 4.3 | -2.7 | -2.70 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Building Permits | 1.394 | 1.433 | 1.394 | 1.39 | Low |
| 14:00 | US | New Home Sales | 0.607 | 0.62 | 0.62 | High | |
| 15:00 | US | Kansas Fed Manufacturing Index | 17 | 9 | 15.00 | Low | |
| 15:00 | US | Kansas Fed Composite Index | 10 | 5 | 7.50 | Low | |
| Friday, September 25, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Durable Goods Orders Ex Transp MoM | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.95 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Non Defense Goods Orders Ex Air | 0.2 | 0.5 | 1.00 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Durable Goods Orders MoM | 1.1 | -0.4 | -0.40 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Durable Goods Orders Ex Defense MoM | 1.3 | -0.6 | -0.95 | High | |
| 14:00 | US | Michigan Consumer Sentiment | 47.8 | 51.7 | 47.6 | 47.70 | High |
| 14:00 | US | Michigan 5 Year Inflation Expectations | 3.4 | 3.3 | 3.4 | 3.40 | Low |
| 14:00 | US | Michigan Current Conditions | 50.9 | 51.9 | 49.5 | 50.20 | Low |
| 14:00 | US | Michigan Inflation Expectations | 4.6 | 4 | 4.6 | 4.60 | Low |
| 14:00 | US | Michigan Consumer Expectations | 45.8 | 51.5 | 45.8 | 45.80 | Low |
| 17:00 | US | Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count | 452 | 453 | 453.00 | Low | |