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Data from U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS Leisure Hospitality Payrolls fell to 16,931 Thousands in June 2026
U.S. Bureau of Labor StatisticsMonthlyReleased July 2026
US Leisure Hospitality Payrolls fell to 16,931 Thousands in June 2026, released July 2026, down 40 Thousands from May's 16,971 Thousands reading.
Latest Release
16931.000000
Actual
—
Consensus
16971.000000
Previous
Sigmacast Track Record
Sigmacast track record will appear here once this indicator has been released 3+ times since Sigmanomics began tracking.
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.64 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▼ Inverse | −0.61 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| NZD/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.56 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| GBP/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.54 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.50 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Leisure Hospitality Payrolls (United States) was reported at 16,931.00 Thousands in June 2026. The reading fell from the previous value of 16,971.00 Thousands. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 16,961.30 Thousands, ranging from 16,931.00 Thousands to 17,014.00 Thousands across 10 releases. This is classified as a high-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 16,972.00 Thousands, up from the prior three at 16,962.00 Thousands. Volatility over the past year (σ 23.98 Thousands) is lower than the prior year (σ 29.18 Thousands). In July readings over the past 3 years, Leisure Hospitality Payrolls has averaged 16,843.33 Thousands.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with USD/JPY (Bearish USD). A secondary relationship exists with S&P 500, negatively correlated (Bearish S&P 500).
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Net Long-Term TIC Flows (Sep 16) and Housing Starts MoM (Sep 17).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
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Leisure Hospitality Payrolls - US
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About Leisure Hospitality Payrolls — United States
DEFINITION
US Leisure Hospitality Payrolls for June registered at 16951.000000K, missing May’s 17012.000000K level. This marks a slight decline from May’s reading, indicating a modest contraction in the sector’s employment. Market focus will remain on upcoming labor data and Federal Reserve signals amid this softening trend. Updated 7/4/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Labor-market data shapes consumer-spending forecasts and is closely tracked by central banks assessing the output gap and wage-inflation pass-through. Surprises against consensus typically move rates and currencies on release. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jul 2026): actual 16,931 Thousands. Prior reading (Jun 2026): 16,971 Thousands. Before that (May 2026): 17,014 Thousands.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with USD/JPY (Bearish USD, r=-0.64) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Tuesday, September 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:30 | US | NY Empire State Manufacturing Index | 7.6 | 20.6 | 14.75 | 11.18 | High |
| 20:30 | US | API Crude Oil Stock Change | 7.14 | -0.3 | -1.8 | 2.67 | Medium |
| 21:00 | US | API Crude Oil Stock Change | 7.14 | -0.3 | -1.8 | 2.67 | Medium |
| Wednesday, September 16, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales MoM | 1.2 | -0.5 | 0.8 | 1.00 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM | 1.4 | -0.2 | 0.5 | 0.80 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Import Prices YoY | 7 | 6.1 | 6.4 | 6.70 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales Ex Gas/Autos MoM | 1.2 | -0.3 | 0.2 | 0.45 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales YoY | 6 | 5.03 | 4.7 | 5.75 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Export Prices MoM | 0.6 | -1.4 | 0.5 | 0.55 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Import Prices MoM | 0.7 | -0.3 | 0.4 | 0.55 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Export Prices YoY | 8.6 | 8.1 | 8.5 | 8.55 | Low |
| 14:00 | US | Business Inventories MoM | 0.8 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.42 | Medium |
| 14:00 | US | NAHB Housing Market Index | 32 | 35 | 34 | 33.00 | Medium |
| 14:00 | US | Retail Inventories Ex Autos MoM | 0.8 | -0.5 | 0.7 | 0.72 | Low |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change | -0.64 | -0.391 | -1.6 | -2.28 | Medium |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Gasoline Stocks Change | 0.794 | 1.269 | -1 | -0.53 | Medium |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Distillate Stocks Change | 1.585 | 2.087 | 0.1 | 0.83 | Low |
| 16:00 | US | Atlanta Fed GDPNow | 5.1 | 4.4 | 4.4 | 4.63 | Medium |
| 18:00 | US | Fed Interest Rate Decision | 4 | 3.75 | 4 | 4.00 | High |