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Data from FRED. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS S&P 500 Index fell to 7,482.71 in July 2026
FREDDailyReleased July 2026
US S&P 500 Index fell to 7,482.71 in July 2026, down 21.14 from June's 7,503.85 reading.
Latest Release
7482.710000
Actual
—
Consensus
7503.850000
Previous
Sigmacast Track Record
Sigmacast track record will appear here once this indicator has been released 3+ times since Sigmanomics began tracking.
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.68 | INDEX | Bullish S&P 500 | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.50 | CRYPTO | Bullish BTC | → View |
| GOOGL | ▲ Direct | +0.36 | STOCKS | Bullish GOOGL | → View |
| AAPL | ▲ Direct | +0.34 | STOCKS | Bullish AAPL | → View |
| MSFT | ▲ Direct | +0.31 | STOCKS | Bullish MSFT | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
S&P 500 Index (United States) was reported at 7,482.71 (index) in July 2026. The reading fell from the previous value of 7,503.85 (index). Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 6,847.87 (index), ranging from 6,238.01 (index) to 7,609.78 (index) across 250 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a daily basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 7,508.00 (index), up from the prior three at 7,488.61 (index). Volatility over the past year (σ 348.61 (index)) is higher than the prior year (σ 253.65 (index)). In July readings over the past 3 years, S&P 500 Index has averaged 5,696.89 (index).
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with S&P 500 (Bullish S&P 500). A secondary relationship exists with BTC/USD, positively correlated (Bullish BTC).
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Monthly Budget Statement (Jul 13) and Budget Balance (Jul 13).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
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S&P 500 Index - US
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About S&P 500 Index — United States
DEFINITION
The US S&P 500 Index closed at 7482.710000 on July 8, slightly below June 29’s 7499.36 and July 7’s 7503.85. This marks a modest pullback after a brief rally from June’s low of 7354.02, indicating a pause in recent upward momentum. Market participants remain cautious ahead of upcoming earnings reports and Federal Reserve commentary. Updated 7/9/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released daily.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jul 2026): actual 7,482.7 Index. Prior reading (Jul 2026): 7,503.9 Index. Before that (Jul 2026): 7,537.4 Index.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with S&P 500 (Bullish S&P 500, r=0.68) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Tuesday, July 14, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10:00 | US | NFIB Business Optimism Index | 95.3 | 96 | 94.60 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Inflation Rate YoY | 4.2 | 3.9 | 3.90 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Core Inflation Rate YoY | 2.9 | 2.8 | 2.75 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | CPI s.a | 333.979 | 335.3 | 335.40 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Core Inflation Rate MoM | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.25 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | CPI | 335.12 | 335.1 | 335.00 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Inflation Rate MoM | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.40 | High | |
| Wednesday, July 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Producer Price Index | 157.659 | 159.1 | 159.10 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Producer Price Index YoY | 6.5 | 7.2 | 6.90 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Core PPI YoY | 4.9 | 5.2 | 5.05 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Producer Price Index MoM | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.50 | High | |
| Thursday, July 16, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.40 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales YoY | 6.9 | 6.7 | 6.70 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales Ex Gas/Autos MoM | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.30 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales MoM | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.30 | High | |
| 14:00 | US | Pending Home Sales YoY | 4.8 | 1.3 | 1.30 | Medium | |