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Data from U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS Government Payrolls fell to 23,317 Thousands in February 2026
U.S. Bureau of Labor StatisticsMonthlyReleased March 2026
US Government Payrolls fell to 23,317 Thousands in February 2026, released March 2026, down 8 Thousands from January's 23,325 Thousands reading.
Latest Release
23317.000000
Actual
—
Consensus
23325.000000
Previous
Sigmacast Track Record
Sigmacast track record will appear here once this indicator has been released 3+ times since Sigmanomics began tracking.
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GOOGL | ▼ Inverse | −0.62 | STOCKS | Bearish GOOGL | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.61 | CRYPTO | Bearish BTC | → View |
| GBP/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.50 | FOREX | Bearish GBP | → View |
| AUD/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.44 | FOREX | Bullish AUD | → View |
| USD/CAD | ▼ Inverse | −0.43 | FOREX | Bearish USD | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Government Payrolls (United States) was reported at 23,317.00 Thousands in February 2026. The reading fell from the previous value of 23,325.00 Thousands. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 23,431.80 Thousands, ranging from 23,317.00 Thousands to 23,586.00 Thousands across 10 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 23,323.67 Thousands, down from the prior three at 23,366.00 Thousands. Volatility over the past year (σ 109.23 Thousands) is higher than the prior year (σ 71.88 Thousands). In March readings over the past 3 years, Government Payrolls has averaged 23,390.67 Thousands.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with GOOGL (Bearish GOOGL). A secondary relationship exists with BTC/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish BTC).
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for June 5, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Leading Index MoM (May 22) and Fed Waller Speech (May 22).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update March 2026.
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Government Payrolls - US
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Wednesday, May 20, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14:30 | US | EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change | -7.864 | -4.306 | -2.9 | -5.38 | Medium |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Distillate Stocks Change | 0.372 | 0.19 | -1.1 | -0.36 | Low |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Gasoline Stocks Change | -1.548 | -4.084 | -2.1 | -1.82 | Medium |
| Thursday, May 21, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Building Permits | 1.442 | 1.363 | 1.39 | 1.53 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Housing Starts MoM | -2.8 | 12 | -3.5 | -3.15 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Housing Starts | 1.465 | 1.507 | 1.41 | 1.44 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Building Permits MoM | 5.8 | -11.5 | 0.5 | 3.15 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Continuing Jobless Claims | 1782 | 1776 | 1790 | 1786.00 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Jobless Claims 4-Week Average | 202.5 | 204 | 203 | 202.75 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index | -0.4 | 26.7 | 18 | 15.73 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Initial Jobless Claims | 209 | 212 | 210 | 209.50 | Medium |
| 13:45 | US | S&P Global Services PMI | 50.9 | 51 | 51.1 | 50.88 | Medium |
| 13:45 | US | S&P Global Composite PMI | 51.7 | 51.7 | 51.5 | 51.60 | Medium |
| 13:45 | US | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI | 55.3 | 54.5 | 53.8 | 53.88 | Medium |
| 14:00 | US | Atlanta Fed GDPNow | 4.3 | 4 | 4 | 3.92 | Medium |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change | 101 | 85 | 95 | 98.00 | Low |
| 15:00 | US | Kansas Fed Manufacturing Index | 9 | 10 | 9 | 9.00 | Low |
| 15:00 | US | Kansas Fed Composite Index | 8 | 10 | 9 | 8.50 | Low |