Loading page content
Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS Core CPI climbed to 336.79% in July 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased August 2026
US Core CPI climbed to 336.79% in July 2026, released August 2026, up 0.72% from June's 336.07% reading.
Latest Release
336.790000
Actual
—
Consensus
336.070000
Previous
Sigmacast Track Record
Sigmacast track record will appear here once this indicator has been released 3+ times since Sigmanomics began tracking.
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MSFT | ▼ Inverse | −0.56 | STOCKS | Moves against | → View |
| USD/CAD | ▲ Direct | +0.49 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| AUD/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.41 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| USD/CHF | ▲ Direct | +0.35 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| GBP/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.34 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Core CPI (United States) was reported at 336.79% in August 2026. The reading rose from the previous value of 336.07%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through August 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 334.47%, ranging from 330.42% to 336.79% across 14 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 336.55%, up from the prior three at 335.87%. Volatility over the past year (σ 2.11%) is lower than the prior year (σ 2.67%). In August readings over the past 3 years, Core CPI has averaged 328.75%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with MSFT (Bearish MSFT). A secondary relationship exists with USD/CAD, positively correlated (Bullish USD).
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for September 11, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Chicago PMI (Aug 28) and Michigan 1 Year Inflation Expectations (Aug 28).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update August 2026.
SHARE
Core CPI - US
Loading chart data...
About Core CPI — United States
DEFINITION
US Core CPI (Ex Food & Energy) rose to 336.789 in July, up from June’s 336.065, marking a continued upward trend. July’s increase follows steady monthly gains since January, indicating persistent inflationary pressure excluding volatile food and energy prices. Market participants will watch upcoming Fed communications closely for signals on monetary policy adjustments. Updated 8/13/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Inflation prints feed directly into central-bank policy expectations and real-yield calculations, and are among the most rate-sensitive releases on the calendar. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jul 2026): actual 336.8 Index 1982-84=100. Prior reading (Jun 2026): 336.1 Index 1982-84=100. Before that (May 2026): 336.1 Index 1982-84=100.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with MSFT (Bearish MSFT, r=-0.56) — a useful reference for stocks-focused traders.
Σ
EXPECTED ZONE
SIGMANOMICS MARKET FORECAST ENGINE
Multi-horizon symbol forecasts, Rolling-Surprise economic predictions, and programmatic API access.
Expected Zones · Trade Bias · Confidence Intervals · API Access · 1,456+ instruments
FOREXCRYPTOSTOCKSCOMMODITIESINDICESAPI
BLSBEAFMPWORLD BANKFRED
1,456+ instruments247 indicators530+ correlationsREST + GQL API
4,151 economic indicators127 countries covered6 data sources
FREDBLSEIAECBBOJFMP
Economic Calendar - US Events
| Thursday, August 27, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:30 | US | Jobless Claims 4-Week Average | 205.5 | 204.25 | 203 | 204.25 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Initial Jobless Claims | 203 | 207 | 208 | 205.50 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Goods Trade Balance Adv | -118.8 | -101.41 | -99 | -102.92 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Inventories Ex Autos MoM | 0.7 | -0.5 | 0 | 0.27 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Wholesale Inventories MoM | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.38 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Continuing Jobless Claims | 1778 | 1796 | 1790 | 1784.00 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Goods Trade Balance | -118.8 | -101.41 | -99 | -102.88 | High |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change | 15 | 16 | 20 | 17.50 | Low |
| 15:00 | US | Kansas Fed Manufacturing Index | 17 | 17 | 14 | 15.50 | Low |
| 15:00 | US | Kansas Fed Composite Index | 10 | 9 | 8 | 9.00 | Low |
| Friday, August 28, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 13:45 | US | Chicago PMI | 57.6 | 57 | 63.10 | Medium | |
| 14:00 | US | Michigan 1 Year Inflation Expectations | 4.2 | 4.3 | 4.30 | Medium | |
| 14:00 | US | Michigan Inflation Expectations | 4.3 | 4.2 | 4.3 | 4.30 | Low |
| 14:00 | US | Michigan 5 Year Inflation Expectations | 3.3 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 3.30 | Low |
| 14:00 | US | Michigan Consumer Sentiment | 51 | 55.2 | 51 | 51.00 | High |
| 14:00 | US | Michigan Consumer Expectations | 50.6 | 55.4 | 50.6 | 50.60 | Low |
| 14:00 | US | Michigan Current Conditions | 51.8 | 54.8 | 51.8 | 51.80 | Low |
| 15:00 | US | Kansas Fed Manufacturing Index | 17 | 14 | 15.50 | Low | |
| 15:00 | US | Kansas Fed Composite Index | 9 | 8 | 9.00 | Low | |