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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS Core CPI climbed to 337.77% in August 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased September 2026
US Core CPI climbed to 337.77% in August 2026, released September 2026, up 0.98% from July's 336.79% reading.
Latest Release
337.770000
Actual
—
Consensus
336.790000
Previous
Sigmacast Track Record
Sigmacast track record will appear here once this indicator has been released 3+ times since Sigmanomics began tracking.
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD/CAD | ▲ Direct | +0.56 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| MSFT | ▼ Inverse | −0.45 | STOCKS | Moves against | → View |
| USD/CHF | ▲ Direct | +0.44 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.43 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| GBP/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.42 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Core CPI (United States) was reported at 337.77% in September 2026. The reading rose from the previous value of 336.79%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through September 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 335.18%, ranging from 331.04% to 337.77% across 15 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 337.44%, up from the prior three at 336.33%. Volatility over the past year (σ 2%) is lower than the prior year (σ 2.38%). In September readings over the past 3 years, Core CPI has averaged 329.64%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with USD/CAD (Bullish USD). A secondary relationship exists with MSFT, negatively correlated (Bearish MSFT).
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Inflation Rate YoY (Oct 14) and Core Inflation Rate YoY (Oct 14).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update September 2026.
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Core CPI - US
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About Core CPI — United States
DEFINITION
US Core CPI (Ex Food & Energy) rose to 336.789 in July, up from June’s 336.065, marking a continued upward trend. July’s increase follows steady monthly gains since January, indicating persistent inflationary pressure excluding volatile food and energy prices. Market participants will watch upcoming Fed communications closely for signals on monetary policy adjustments. Updated 8/13/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Inflation prints feed directly into central-bank policy expectations and real-yield calculations, and are among the most rate-sensitive releases on the calendar. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Aug 2026): actual 337.8 Index 1982-84=100. Prior reading (Jul 2026): 336.8 Index 1982-84=100. Before that (Jun 2026): 336.1 Index 1982-84=100.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with USD/CAD (Bullish USD, r=0.56) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Tuesday, October 13, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10:00 | US | NFIB Business Optimism Index | 97.9 | 98.7 | 98 | 97.95 | Low |
| 14:00 | US | Existing Home Sales MoM | 1.5 | -3.2 | -0.3 | 0.60 | High |
| 14:00 | US | Existing Home Sales | 3.99 | 3.93 | 3.95 | 3.97 | High |
| 15:30 | US | 3-Month Bill Auction | 4.085 | 4.05 | 4.009 | 4.05 | Low |
| Wednesday, October 14, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 18:00 | US | Budget Balance | -167 | -29 | -29.00 | Medium | |
| Thursday, October 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Producer Price Index YoY | 5.4 | 5.3 | 5.30 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index | 37.8 | 28.4 | 42.60 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | NY Empire State Manufacturing Index | 7.6 | 10.3 | 10.30 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Core PPI YoY | 4.6 | 4.4 | 4.40 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Continuing Jobless Claims | 1716 | 1710 | 1702.50 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | PPI Ex Food, Energy and Trade YoY | 4.7 | 4.7 | 4.70 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Producer Price Index MoM | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.50 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | PPI Ex Food, Energy and Trade MoM | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.30 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Initial Jobless Claims | 197 | 200 | 195.50 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Producer Price Index | 157.411 | 159.1 | 159.10 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Jobless Claims 4-Week Average | 198 | 199 | 198.13 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Core PPI MoM | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.30 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales MoM | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.30 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.45 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales Ex Gas/Autos MoM | 1.2 | 0.2 | 0.25 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales YoY | 6 | 5.2 | 5.20 | High | |
| 13:30 | US | Retail Sales YoY | 6 | 5.2 | 5.20 | High | |
| 13:30 | US | Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.45 | High | |
| 13:30 | US | Retail Sales MoM | 1.2 | 0.1 | 0.10 | High | |
| 13:30 | US | Retail Sales Ex Gas/Autos MoM | 1.2 | 0.2 | 0.25 | High | |
| 14:00 | US | Business Inventories MoM | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.40 | Medium | |