United StatesUS 20-Year Bond Auction climbed to 5.47% in September 2026
US 20-Year Bond Auction climbed to 5.47% in September 2026, released October 2026, up 0.05% from August's 5.42% reading.
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Forecasts generated by Sigmanomics engine. Not financial advice.
Sigmacast Track Record
Sigmacast track record will appear here once this indicator has been released 3+ times since Sigmanomics began tracking.
Method: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.44 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| GOOGL | ▲ Direct | +0.26 | STOCKS | Moves with | → View |
| NZD/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.26 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.25 | COMMODITIES | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
20-Year Bond Auction (United States) was reported at 5.47% in October 2026. The reading rose from the previous value of 5.42%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 5.01%, ranging from 4.66% to 5.47% across 9 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 5.36%, up from the prior three at 4.96%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.28%) is higher than the prior year (σ 0.16%). In October readings over the past 3 years, 20-Year Bond Auction has averaged 4.86%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with S&P 500 (Bullish S&P 500).
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for November 18, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Fed Schmid Speech (Nov 10) and Fed Bowman Speech (Nov 10).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
20-Year Bond Auction - US
About 20-Year Bond Auction — United States
DEFINITION
The 20-Year Bond Auction is a financial indicator that measures the demand and interest rates for government-issued bonds with a maturity of 20 years. This auction is conducted by the government to raise funds for long-term projects and investments. The results of the auction provide insight into the current market sentiment and can impact the overall economy and interest rates. Investors and analysts closely monitor this indicator as it can provide valuable information for making investment decisions.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Oct 2026): actual 5.469 %. Prior reading (Sep 2026): 5.42 %. Before that (Aug 2026, first reported): 5.204 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast is 5.65% (latest print 5.47%). The 3-month forecast is 6.01%. The projection is based on the indicator's own recent trend. This indicator correlates most strongly with S&P 500 (Bullish S&P 500, r=0.44) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Monday, November 9, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15:00 | US | Wholesale Inventories MoM | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.65 | Low |
| 15:00 | US | Wholesale Sales MoM | 2.8 | 2 | 1.1 | 1.95 | Low |
| 16:00 | US | Consumer Inflation Expectation | 3.9 | 3.9 | 3.8 | 3.85 | Low |
| 16:30 | US | 3-Month Bill Auction | 4.06 | 4.04 | 4.009 | 4.03 | Low |
| Tuesday, November 10, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 11:00 | US | NFIB Business Optimism Index | 97.8 | 97.9 | 97.7 | 98.30 | Low |
| 13:30 | US | CPI s.a | 337.48 | 336.3 | 337 | 337.17 | High |
| 13:30 | US | Inflation Rate MoM | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.33 | High |
| 13:30 | US | Core Inflation Rate MoM | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.23 | High |
| 13:30 | US | CPI | 337.51 | 336.94 | 337.02 | 337.13 | High |
| 13:55 | US | Redbook YoY | 10.1 | 10.4 | 9.3 | 9.70 | Low |
| 21:30 | US | API Crude Oil Stock Change | -5.267 | -1 | 3.79 | Medium | |
| Wednesday, November 11, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 19:00 | US | Budget Balance | -27 | -298 | -339.85 | Medium | |