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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS 20-Year Bond Auction fell to 4.93% in May 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased June 2026
US 20-Year Bond Auction fell to 4.93% in May 2026, released June 2026, down 0.2% from April's 5.12% reading.
Latest Release
4.927000
Actual
—
Consensus
5.122000
Previous
Sigmacast Track Record
Sigmacast track record will appear here once this indicator has been released 3+ times since Sigmanomics began tracking.
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.57 | INDEX | Bullish S&P 500 | → View |
| USD/CAD | ▲ Direct | +0.40 | FOREX | Bullish USD | → View |
| USD/CHF | ▲ Direct | +0.39 | FOREX | Bullish USD | → View |
| GOOGL | ▲ Direct | +0.38 | STOCKS | Bullish GOOGL | → View |
| MSFT | ▲ Direct | +0.35 | STOCKS | Bullish MSFT | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
20-Year Bond Auction (United States) was reported at 4.93% in June 2026. The reading fell from the previous value of 5.12%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through June 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 4.8%, ranging from 4.51% to 5.12% across 10 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 4.96%, up from the prior three at 4.72%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.17%) is lower than the prior year (σ 0.29%).
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with S&P 500 (Bullish S&P 500). A secondary relationship exists with USD/CAD, positively correlated (Bullish USD).
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for July 22, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Fed Bank Stress Test Results (Jun 24) and Chicago Fed National Activity Index (Jun 25).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update June 2026.
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20-Year Bond Auction - US
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About 20-Year Bond Auction — United States
DEFINITION
The 20-Year Bond Auction is a financial indicator that measures the demand and interest rates for government-issued bonds with a maturity of 20 years. This auction is conducted by the government to raise funds for long-term projects and investments. The results of the auction provide insight into the current market sentiment and can impact the overall economy and interest rates. Investors and analysts closely monitor this indicator as it can provide valuable information for making investment decisions.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jun 2026): actual 4.927 %. Prior reading (May 2026): 5.122 %. Before that (Apr 2026): 4.883 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with S&P 500 (Bullish S&P 500, r=0.57) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Tuesday, June 23, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13:45 | US | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI | 55.7 | 55.1 | 54.8 | 55.25 | Medium |
| 13:45 | US | S&P Global Services PMI | 51.3 | 50.7 | 51 | 51.15 | Medium |
| 13:45 | US | S&P Global Composite PMI | 52.2 | 51.5 | 50.8 | 51.50 | Medium |
| 14:00 | US | Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index | 4 | 13 | 9 | 6.50 | Low |
| 14:00 | US | Richmond Fed Services Index | -1 | 14 | 11 | 5.00 | Low |
| 14:00 | US | Richmond Fed Manufacturing Shipments Index | 3 | 16 | 9 | 6.00 | Low |
| Thursday, June 25, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Chicago Fed National Activity Index | 0.14 | 0.12 | 0.12 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Durable Goods Orders MoM | 7.9 | -4.3 | -4.30 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE Price Index MoM | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.30 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Initial Jobless Claims | 226 | 225 | 225.00 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Personal Income MoM | 0 | 0.4 | 0.40 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Personal Spending MoM | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.10 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Durable Goods Orders Ex Transp MoM | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.70 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | PCE Price Index MoM | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.50 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Non Defense Goods Orders Ex Air | -1.1 | 0.6 | 0.60 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Continuing Jobless Claims | 1810 | 1800 | 1784.50 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE Price Index YoY | 3.3 | 3.4 | 3.40 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Durable Goods Orders Ex Defense MoM | 8.1 | -3.9 | -3.90 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Jobless Claims 4-Week Average | 223.25 | 226 | 225.25 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | PCE Price Index YoY | 3.8 | 4 | 4.00 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Real Consumer Spending | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.40 | Low | |
| 15:00 | US | Kansas Fed Composite Index | 8 | 6 | 10.00 | Low | |
| 15:00 | US | Kansas Fed Manufacturing Index | 9 | 7 | 11.50 | Low | |
| Friday, June 26, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Wholesale Inventories MoM | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.20 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Inventories Ex Autos MoM | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.10 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Goods Trade Balance | -83.01 | -85.4 | -85.40 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Goods Trade Balance Adv | -83 | -85.2 | -85.20 | Medium | |