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Data from FRED. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS Fed Funds Daily held to 3.88 Percent in October 2026
FREDDailyReleased October 2026
US Fed Funds Daily held to 3.88 Percent in October 2026.
Latest Release
3.880000
Actual
—
Consensus
3.880000
Previous
Sigmacast Track Record
Sigmacast track record will appear here once this indicator has been released 3+ times since Sigmanomics began tracking.
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.50 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.45 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.40 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.35 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | CRYPTO | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Fed Funds Daily (United States) was reported at 3.88 Percent in October 2026. The reading was unchanged from the previous release. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 3.69 Percent, ranging from 3.62 Percent to 3.89 Percent across 364 releases. This is classified as a high-impact indicator released on a daily basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 3.88 Percent, unchanged from the prior three. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.10 Percent) is lower than the prior year (σ 0.14 Percent). In October readings over the past 3 years, Fed Funds Daily has averaged 4.29 Percent.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with S&P 500 (Bullish Stocks). A secondary relationship exists with EUR/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish EUR).
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include ISM Manufacturing Employment (Nov 2) and ISM Manufacturing PMI (Nov 2).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
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Fed Funds Daily - US
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About Fed Funds Daily — United States
DEFINITION
US Fed Funds Daily rate remained steady at 3.880000% throughout October, matching the previous month's level. October's rate held firm at 3.880000%, unchanged from September's 3.880000%. Market pricing reflects a stable monetary policy stance with no immediate shifts expected. Updated 10/31/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. Surprises against consensus typically move rates and currencies on release. Released daily.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Oct 2026): actual 3.88 Percent. Prior reading (Oct 2026): 3.88 Percent. Before that (Oct 2026): 3.88 Percent.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with S&P 500 (Bullish Stocks, r=0.50) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Friday, October 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:30 | US | Employment Cost - Benefits QoQ | 0.9 | 1 | 0.7 | 0.80 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Employment Cost - Wages QoQ | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.75 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Employment Cost Index QoQ | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.80 | Medium |
| 13:45 | US | Chicago PMI | 55.3 | 58.8 | 56.1 | 55.70 | Medium |
| Monday, November 2, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 14:00 | US | ISM Manufacturing Prices | 77.9 | 78 | 78.40 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | ISM Manufacturing Employment | 52.7 | 53 | 54.50 | Medium | |
| 14:00 | US | ISM Manufacturing PMI | 54.5 | 54.7 | 55.50 | High | |
| 14:00 | US | ISM Manufacturing New Orders | 55.3 | 55.4 | 56.05 | Low | |