Loading page content
Data from U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS Core CPI YoY fell to 2.6% in June 2026
U.S. Bureau of Labor StatisticsMonthlyReleased July 2026
US Core CPI YoY fell to 2.6% in June 2026, released July 2026, down 0.3% from May's 2.9% reading. The print came in cooler than the 2.8% consensus, a softer print than forecasters anticipated.
Latest Release
2.6
Actual
2.8
Consensus
2.9
Previous
Sigmacast Track Record
Sigmacast track record will appear here once this indicator has been released 3+ times since Sigmanomics began tracking.
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | COMMODITIES | Moves with | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | CRYPTO | Moves with | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Core CPI YoY (United States) was reported at 2.6% in July 2026. This missed the market consensus of 2.8% by 0.2%. The reading fell from the previous value of 2.9%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through July 2026. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for August 12, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Existing Home Sales MoM (Aug 11) and Existing Home Sales (Aug 11).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
SHARE
Core CPI YoY - US
Loading chart data...
About Core CPI YoY — United States
DEFINITION
Core CPI YoY (Consumer Price Index Year-over-Year) is a widely used financial indicator that measures the change in the prices of goods and services over a 12-month period, excluding volatile food and energy prices. It provides valuable insights into the overall inflation trends and helps investors and policymakers make informed decisions about economic conditions and monetary policies. This indicator is considered a key measure of inflation and is closely monitored by financial analysts and market participants.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Inflation prints feed directly into central-bank policy expectations and real-yield calculations, and are among the most rate-sensitive releases on the calendar. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jun 2026): actual 2.6 %, consensus 2.8 %.
Σ
EXPECTED ZONE
SIGMANOMICS MARKET FORECAST ENGINE
Multi-horizon symbol forecasts, Rolling-Surprise economic predictions, and programmatic API access.
Expected Zones · Trade Bias · Confidence Intervals · API Access · 1,456+ instruments
FOREXCRYPTOSTOCKSCOMMODITIESINDICESAPI
BLSBEAFMPWORLD BANKFRED
1,456+ instruments247 indicators530+ correlationsREST + GQL API
4,151 economic indicators127 countries covered6 data sources
FREDBLSEIAECBBOJFMP
Economic Calendar - US Events
| Tuesday, August 11, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10:00 | US | NFIB Business Optimism Index | 99.8 | 97.4 | 97.5 | 98.03 | Low |
| 14:00 | US | Existing Home Sales MoM | -2.4 | -0.7 | -0.70 | Medium | |
| 14:00 | US | Existing Home Sales | 4.09 | 4.04 | 4.04 | High | |
| Wednesday, August 12, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Core Inflation Rate MoM | 0 | 0.2 | 0.25 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Inflation Rate MoM | -0.4 | 0.1 | 0.10 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Core Inflation Rate YoY | 2.6 | 2.5 | 2.55 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Inflation Rate YoY | 3.5 | 3.4 | 3.45 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | CPI | 333.95 | 334.03 | 334.39 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | CPI s.a | 332.568 | 332.6 | 332.85 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Core CPI YoY | 2.6 | 2.5 | 2.50 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | CPI YoY | 3.5 | 3.4 | 3.45 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | CPI MoM | -0.4 | 0.1 | 0.10 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Core CPI MoM | 0 | 0.2 | 0.20 | High | |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change | 2.479 | -1.3 | -2.40 | Medium | |
| 18:00 | US | Monthly Budget Statement | -120 | -361.2 | -363.70 | Medium | |
| 18:00 | US | Budget Balance | -120 | -361.2 | -332.30 | Medium | |
| Thursday, August 13, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Continuing Jobless Claims | 1801 | 1800 | 1800.00 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Initial Jobless Claims | 199 | 201 | 201.00 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Core PPI YoY | 4.7 | 4.2 | 4.65 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Core PPI MoM | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.65 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Producer Price Index MoM | -0.3 | 0.2 | 0.65 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Jobless Claims 4-Week Average | 198.75 | 197 | 197.00 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | PPI Ex Food, Energy and Trade YoY | 5.1 | 5.1 | 5.45 | Low | |