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Data from U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS Core CPI YoY fell to 2.5% in July 2026
U.S. Bureau of Labor StatisticsMonthlyReleased August 2026
US Core CPI YoY fell to 2.5% in July 2026, released August 2026, down 0.1% from June's 2.6% reading. The reading matched expectations.
Latest Release
2.5
Actual
2.5
Consensus
2.6
Previous
Sigmacast Track Record
Sigmacast track record will appear here once this indicator has been released 3+ times since Sigmanomics began tracking.
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | COMMODITIES | Moves with | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | CRYPTO | Moves with | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Core CPI YoY (United States) was reported at 2.5% in August 2026. This matched the market consensus of 2.5% exactly. The reading fell from the previous value of 2.6%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through August 2026. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for September 11, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include OPEC Meeting (Sep 6) and MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate (Sep 9).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update August 2026.
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Core CPI YoY - US
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About Core CPI YoY — United States
DEFINITION
Core CPI YoY (Consumer Price Index Year-over-Year) is a widely used financial indicator that measures the change in the prices of goods and services over a 12-month period, excluding volatile food and energy prices. It provides valuable insights into the overall inflation trends and helps investors and policymakers make informed decisions about economic conditions and monetary policies. This indicator is considered a key measure of inflation and is closely monitored by financial analysts and market participants.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Inflation prints feed directly into central-bank policy expectations and real-yield calculations, and are among the most rate-sensitive releases on the calendar. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jul 2026): actual 2.5 %, consensus 2.5 %. Prior reading (Jun 2026): 2.6 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print. Current dynamics are the primary tailwind in the projection.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Friday, September 4, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:30 | US | Average Hourly Earnings YoY | 3.1 | 3.2 | 3 | 3.05 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Participation Rate | 61.6 | 61.4 | 61.4 | 61.50 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Average Weekly Hours | 34.4 | 34.3 | 34.3 | 34.35 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Average Hourly Earnings MoM | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.30 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Government Payrolls | 35 | -50 | -11 | 12.00 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Manufacturing Payrolls | 16 | 14 | 5 | 10.50 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Non Farm Payrolls | 162 | 21 | 56 | 109.00 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Unemployment Rate | 4.1 | 4.1 | 4.1 | 4.10 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Nonfarm Payrolls Private | 127 | 71 | 45 | 86.00 | High |
| 12:30 | US | U-6 Unemployment Rate | 7.7 | 7.9 | 8 | 7.85 | High |
| Tuesday, September 8, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 10:00 | US | NFIB Business Optimism Index | 99.8 | 99.3 | 98.95 | Low | |
| 15:00 | US | Consumer Inflation Expectation | 3.6 | 3.6 | 3.45 | Low | |
| 15:30 | US | 3-Month Bill Auction | 3.77 | 3.709 | 3.71 | Low | |
| 19:00 | US | Consumer Credit Change | 14.17 | 11.3 | 11.30 | Low | |