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Data from U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS CPI-U Core (Ex Food & Energy) climbed to 337.77 in July 2026
U.S. Bureau of Labor StatisticsMonthlyReleased August 2026
US CPI-U Core (Ex Food & Energy) climbed to 337.77 in July 2026, released August 2026, up 0.98 from June's 336.79 reading.
Latest Release
337.765000
Actual
—
Consensus
336.789000
Previous
Sigmacast Track Record
Sigmacast track record will appear here once this indicator has been released 3+ times since Sigmanomics began tracking.
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD/CHF | ▼ Inverse | −0.92 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| NZD/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.90 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| AUD/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.89 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.86 | COMMODITIES | Moves with | → View |
| GOOGL | ▲ Direct | +0.81 | STOCKS | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
CPI-U Core (Ex Food & Energy) (United States) was reported at 337.77 Index 1982-84=100 in July 2026. The reading rose from the previous value of 336.79 Index 1982-84=100. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 334.55 Index 1982-84=100, ranging from 331.04 Index 1982-84=100 to 337.77 Index 1982-84=100 across 10 releases. This is classified as a critical-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 336.87 Index 1982-84=100, up from the prior three at 335.24 Index 1982-84=100. Volatility over the past year (σ 2.12 Index 1982-84=100) is lower than the prior year (σ 2.38 Index 1982-84=100). In August readings over the past 3 years, CPI-U Core (Ex Food & Energy) has averaged 329.07 Index 1982-84=100.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with USD/CHF (Bearish USD). A secondary relationship exists with NZD/USD, positively correlated (Bullish NZD).
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include OPEC Meeting (Nov 1) and ISM Manufacturing Employment (Nov 2).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update August 2026.
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CPI-U Core (Ex Food & Energy) - US
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About CPI-U Core (Ex Food & Energy) — United States
DEFINITION
The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U), Core (All Items Less Food and Energy), published monthly by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Strips out the volatile food and energy components to reveal the underlying inflation trend.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Core CPI is the Fed's preferred CPI subaggregate for assessing the persistence of inflation. Headline can swing on energy shocks that the Fed cannot directly address through policy; core isolates the broader pricing dynamics that respond to rate decisions. Sticky core readings (services ex-shelter especially) keep the Fed hawkish.
MARKET IMPACT
| Market | Direction | Strength | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|
| US Treasuries | negative | high | Core stickiness signals slower disinflation |
| USD | positive | high | Restrictive policy expectations |
| S&P 500 | negative | medium | Discount-rate effect, modulated by growth implications |
FAQ
- Why does the Fed prefer core over headline?
- Core strips out food and energy, which are volatile and largely outside the reach of monetary policy.
- How does core CPI differ from core PCE?
- Core PCE is the Fed's formal target; core CPI is a related measure with a different basket weighting and methodology.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Aug 2026): actual 337.8 Index 1982-84=100. Prior reading (Jul 2026): 336.8 Index 1982-84=100. Before that (Jun 2026): 336.1 Index 1982-84=100.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with USD/CHF (Bearish USD, r=-0.92) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Monday, November 2, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14:00 | US | ISM Manufacturing Prices | 77.9 | 78 | 78.40 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | ISM Manufacturing Employment | 52.7 | 53 | 54.50 | Medium | |
| 14:00 | US | ISM Manufacturing PMI | 54.5 | 54.7 | 55.50 | High | |
| 14:00 | US | ISM Manufacturing New Orders | 55.3 | 55.4 | 56.05 | Low | |
| 15:00 | US | Construction Spending MoM | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.45 | Low | |
| 15:00 | US | ISM Manufacturing PMI | 54.5 | 54.7 | 55.50 | High | |
| 15:00 | US | ISM Manufacturing Prices | 77.9 | 77.5 | 77.90 | Low | |
| 15:00 | US | ISM Manufacturing Employment | 52.7 | 53 | 54.50 | Medium | |
| 15:00 | US | ISM Manufacturing New Orders | 55.3 | 55.4 | 56.05 | Low | |
| 15:30 | US | 3-Month Bill Auction | 4.05 | 4.009 | 4.01 | Low | |
| 16:30 | US | 3-Month Bill Auction | 4.05 | 4.009 | 4.01 | Low | |
| Tuesday, November 3, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 15:00 | US | JOLTs Job Openings | 7.079 | 7.1 | 7.08 | High | |
| 15:00 | US | Economic Optimism Index | 46.8 | 46.2 | 45.00 | Low | |
| 15:00 | US | JOLTs Job Quits | 3.066 | 3.05 | 3.14 | Low | |
| 15:00 | US | Factory Orders ex Transportation | 0.3 | 0.4 | -0.05 | Low | |
| 15:00 | US | Factory Orders MoM | 0.1 | 1.1 | 0.85 | Medium | |
| 19:00 | US | Total Vehicle Sales | 16 | 15.9 | 19.80 | Low | |
| Wednesday, November 4, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 13:15 | US | ADP Employment Change | 90 | 65 | 52.00 | High | |
| 13:30 | US | Imports | 420.8 | 429.1 | 430.60 | Medium | |
| 13:30 | US | Balance of Trade | -105.6 | -107.6 | -107.75 | Medium | |
| 13:30 | US | Exports | 315.2 | 320.3 | 321.65 | Medium | |
| 14:00 | US | ISM Services Prices | 74 | 75 | 77.05 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | ISM Services New Orders | 59.8 | 59.5 | 60.45 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | ISM Services PMI | 54.9 | 54.5 | 54.30 | High | |
| 14:00 | US | ISM Services Employment | 50.1 | 50 | 47.70 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | ISM Services Business Activity | 56.5 | 56 | 57.55 | Low | |
| 15:00 | US | ISM Services PMI | 54.9 | 54.8 | 54.60 | High | |
| 15:00 | US | ISM Services New Orders | 59.8 | 59.5 | 60.45 | Low | |
| 15:00 | US | ISM Services Prices | 74 | 75 | 77.05 | Low | |
| 15:00 | US | ISM Services Employment | 50.1 | 50 | 47.70 | Low | |
| 15:00 | US | ISM Services Business Activity | 56.5 | 56 | 57.55 | Low | |