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US CPI-U Core (Ex Food & Energy) climbed to 335.42 in March 2026, released April 2026, up 1.26 from February's 334.17 reading.
Sigmacast track record will appear here once this indicator has been released 3+ times since Sigmanomics began tracking.
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD/CHF | ▼ Inverse | −0.83 | FOREX | Bearish USD | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.81 | COMMODITIES | Bullish XAU | → View |
| GOOGL | ▲ Direct | +0.73 | STOCKS | Bullish GOOGL | → View |
| AUD/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.70 | FOREX | Bullish AUD | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.69 | FOREX | Bullish EUR | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
CPI-U Core (Ex Food & Energy) (United States) was reported at 335.42 Index 1982-84=100 in March 2026. The reading rose from the previous value of 334.17 Index 1982-84=100. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 331.95 Index 1982-84=100, ranging from 328.68 Index 1982-84=100 to 335.42 Index 1982-84=100 across 9 releases. This is classified as a critical-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 334.37 Index 1982-84=100, up from the prior three at 331.88 Index 1982-84=100. Volatility over the past year (σ 2.08 Index 1982-84=100) is lower than the prior year (σ 2.79 Index 1982-84=100). In April readings over the past 3 years, CPI-U Core (Ex Food & Energy) has averaged 326.51 Index 1982-84=100.
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with USD/CHF (Bearish USD). A secondary relationship exists with XAU/USD, positively correlated (Bullish XAU).
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Jun 18) and Initial Jobless Claims (Jun 18).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update April 2026.
The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U), Core (All Items Less Food and Energy), published monthly by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Strips out the volatile food and energy components to reveal the underlying inflation trend.
Core CPI is the Fed's preferred CPI subaggregate for assessing the persistence of inflation. Headline can swing on energy shocks that the Fed cannot directly address through policy; core isolates the broader pricing dynamics that respond to rate decisions. Sticky core readings (services ex-shelter especially) keep the Fed hawkish.
| Market | Direction | Strength | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|
| US Treasuries | negative | high | Core stickiness signals slower disinflation |
| USD | positive | high | Restrictive policy expectations |
| S&P 500 | negative | medium | Discount-rate effect, modulated by growth implications |
Latest reading (Apr 2026): actual 335.4 Index 1982-84=100. Prior reading (Mar 2026): 334.2 Index 1982-84=100. Before that (Feb 2026): 333.5 Index 1982-84=100.
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with USD/CHF (Bearish USD, r=-0.83) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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| Tuesday, June 16, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:30 | Building Permits MoM | -0.7 | 4.4 | -0.6 | -0.45 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | Building Permits | 1.413 | 1.423 | 1.42 | 1.42 | High | |
| 12:30 | Import Prices YoY | 6.7 | 4.2 | 6 | 6.35 | Low | |
| 12:30 | Housing Starts MoM | -15.4 | -8.5 | -2 | -8.70 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | Housing Starts | 1.177 | 1.392 | 1.43 | 1.30 | High | |
| 12:30 | Export Prices YoY | 11.2 | 8.8 | 10.4 | 10.80 | Low | |
| 12:30 | Import Prices MoM | 1.9 | 2 | 1 | 1.45 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | Export Prices MoM | 1.3 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 1.25 | Medium | |
| 16:00 | Atlanta Fed GDPNow | 2.8 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 3.18 | Medium | |
| 20:30 | API Crude Oil Stock Change | -8.33 | -9.119 | -4.5 | -6.42 | Medium | |
| Wednesday, June 17, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | Retail Sales MoM | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.70 | High | |
| 12:30 | Retail Sales Ex Gas/Autos MoM | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.50 | Low | |
| 12:30 | Retail Sales YoY | 6.9 | 4.8 | 4 | 5.45 | Low | |
| 12:30 | Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.65 | Medium | |
| 14:00 | Business Inventories MoM | 0.5 | 1 | 0.5 | 0.50 | Medium | |
| 14:00 | Pending Home Sales YoY | 4.8 | 3.2 | 3 | 3.90 | Medium | |
| 14:00 | Pending Home Sales MoM | 3.8 | 0.3 | 0.8 | 2.30 | Medium | |
| 14:00 | Retail Inventories Ex Autos MoM | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.60 | Low | |
| 14:30 | EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change | -8.262 | -7.228 | -4.6 | -4.08 | Medium | |
| 14:30 | EIA Gasoline Stocks Change | -0.906 | 0.186 | -1 | -1.94 | Medium | |
| 14:30 | EIA Distillate Stocks Change | 0.951 | -0.2 | -0.5 | -0.39 | Low | |
| 15:00 | Atlanta Fed GDPNow | 3 | 2.8 | 2.8 | 2.68 | Medium | |
| 18:00 | Fed Interest Rate Decision | 3.75 | 3.75 | 3.75 | 3.75 | High | |
| Thursday, June 18, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | Continuing Jobless Claims | 1795 | 1800 | 1803.50 | Low | ||
| 12:30 | Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index | -0.4 | 10 | 14.05 | Medium | ||
| 12:30 | Jobless Claims 4-Week Average | 219 | 223 | 221.50 | Low | ||
| 12:30 | Initial Jobless Claims | 229 | 225 | 220.00 | Medium | ||
| 14:00 | Leading Index MoM | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.10 | Medium | ||
| 20:00 | Net Long-Term TIC Flows | 81.3 | 75 | 46.95 | Medium | ||