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Data from U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS CPI-U Core (Ex Food & Energy) climbed to 336.79 in June 2026
U.S. Bureau of Labor StatisticsMonthlyReleased July 2026
US CPI-U Core (Ex Food & Energy) climbed to 336.79 in June 2026, released July 2026, up 0.72 from May's 336.07 reading.
Latest Release
336.789000
Actual
—
Consensus
336.065000
Previous
Sigmacast Track Record
Sigmacast track record will appear here once this indicator has been released 3+ times since Sigmanomics began tracking.
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.93 | COMMODITIES | Moves with | → View |
| USD/CHF | ▼ Inverse | −0.92 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| NZD/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.90 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| AUD/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.90 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| GOOGL | ▲ Direct | +0.84 | STOCKS | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
CPI-U Core (Ex Food & Energy) (United States) was reported at 336.79 Index 1982-84=100 in June 2026. The reading rose from the previous value of 336.07 Index 1982-84=100. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 334.19 Index 1982-84=100, ranging from 331.04 Index 1982-84=100 to 336.79 Index 1982-84=100 across 9 releases. This is classified as a critical-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 336.33 Index 1982-84=100, up from the prior three at 334.37 Index 1982-84=100. Volatility over the past year (σ 1.93 Index 1982-84=100) is lower than the prior year (σ 2.63 Index 1982-84=100). In July readings over the past 3 years, CPI-U Core (Ex Food & Energy) has averaged 328.14 Index 1982-84=100.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with XAU/USD (Bullish XAU). A secondary relationship exists with USD/CHF, negatively correlated (Bearish USD).
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Housing Starts MoM (Sep 17) and Building Permits MoM (Sep 17).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
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CPI-U Core (Ex Food & Energy) - US
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About CPI-U Core (Ex Food & Energy) — United States
DEFINITION
The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U), Core (All Items Less Food and Energy), published monthly by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Strips out the volatile food and energy components to reveal the underlying inflation trend.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Core CPI is the Fed's preferred CPI subaggregate for assessing the persistence of inflation. Headline can swing on energy shocks that the Fed cannot directly address through policy; core isolates the broader pricing dynamics that respond to rate decisions. Sticky core readings (services ex-shelter especially) keep the Fed hawkish.
MARKET IMPACT
| Market | Direction | Strength | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|
| US Treasuries | negative | high | Core stickiness signals slower disinflation |
| USD | positive | high | Restrictive policy expectations |
| S&P 500 | negative | medium | Discount-rate effect, modulated by growth implications |
FAQ
- Why does the Fed prefer core over headline?
- Core strips out food and energy, which are volatile and largely outside the reach of monetary policy.
- How does core CPI differ from core PCE?
- Core PCE is the Fed's formal target; core CPI is a related measure with a different basket weighting and methodology.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jul 2026): actual 336.8 Index 1982-84=100. Prior reading (Jun 2026): 336.1 Index 1982-84=100. Before that (May 2026): 336.1 Index 1982-84=100.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with XAU/USD (Bullish XAU, r=0.93) — a useful reference for commodities-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Tuesday, September 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:30 | US | NY Empire State Manufacturing Index | 7.6 | 20.6 | 14.75 | 11.18 | High |
| 20:30 | US | API Crude Oil Stock Change | 7.14 | -0.3 | -1.8 | 2.67 | Medium |
| 21:00 | US | API Crude Oil Stock Change | 7.14 | -0.3 | -1.8 | 2.67 | Medium |
| Wednesday, September 16, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales MoM | 1.4 | -0.4 | 0.4 | 0.75 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM | 1.4 | -0.2 | 0.5 | 0.80 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Import Prices YoY | 7 | 6.1 | 6.4 | 6.70 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales Ex Gas/Autos MoM | 1.2 | -0.3 | 0.2 | 0.45 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales YoY | 6 | 5.03 | 4.7 | 5.75 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Export Prices MoM | 0.6 | -1.4 | 0.5 | 0.55 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Import Prices MoM | 0.7 | -0.3 | 0.4 | 0.55 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Export Prices YoY | 8.6 | 8.1 | 8.5 | 8.55 | Low |
| 14:00 | US | Business Inventories MoM | 0.8 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.42 | Medium |
| 14:00 | US | NAHB Housing Market Index | 32 | 35 | 34 | 33.00 | Medium |
| 14:00 | US | Retail Inventories Ex Autos MoM | 0.8 | -0.5 | 0.7 | 0.72 | Low |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change | -0.64 | -0.391 | -1.6 | -2.28 | Medium |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Gasoline Stocks Change | 0.794 | 1.269 | -1 | -0.53 | Medium |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Distillate Stocks Change | 1.585 | 2.087 | 0.1 | 0.83 | Low |
| 16:00 | US | Atlanta Fed GDPNow | 5.1 | 4.4 | 4.4 | 4.63 | Medium |
| 18:00 | US | Fed Interest Rate Decision | 4 | 3.75 | 4 | 4.00 | High |
| 20:00 | US | Net Long-Term TIC Flows | -27.9 | 174.4 | 146.3 | 109.78 | Medium |