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Data from U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS CPI-U All Items climbed to 333.98 in April 2026
U.S. Bureau of Labor StatisticsMonthlyReleased May 2026
US CPI-U All Items climbed to 333.98 in April 2026, released May 2026, up 1.57 from March's 332.41 reading.
Latest Release
333.979000
Actual
—
Consensus
332.407000
Previous
Sigmacast Track Record
Sigmacast track record will appear here once this indicator has been released 3+ times since Sigmanomics began tracking.
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | ▼ Inverse | −0.79 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.32 | COMMODITIES | Moves with | → View |
| MSFT | ▲ Direct | +0.29 | STOCKS | Moves with | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.27 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
CPI-U All Items (United States) was reported at 333.98 Index 1982-84=100 in April 2026. The reading rose from the previous value of 332.41 Index 1982-84=100. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 328.26 Index 1982-84=100, ranging from 324.25 Index 1982-84=100 to 333.98 Index 1982-84=100 across 8 releases. This is classified as a critical-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 332.23 Index 1982-84=100, up from the prior three at 326.69 Index 1982-84=100. Volatility over the past year (σ 3.33 Index 1982-84=100) is higher than the prior year (σ 2.53 Index 1982-84=100). In May readings over the past 3 years, CPI-U All Items has averaged 322.59 Index 1982-84=100.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with S&P 500 (Bearish S&P 500). A secondary relationship exists with XAU/USD, positively correlated (Bullish XAU).
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include ISM Manufacturing PMI (Aug 3) and ISM Manufacturing Employment (Aug 3).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update May 2026.
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CPI-U All Items - US
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About CPI-U All Items — United States
DEFINITION
The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U), All Items, published monthly by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Measures the average change in prices paid by urban consumers for a market basket of consumer goods and services. The headline US inflation gauge.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Headline CPI is the most-watched inflation print globally. It directly influences Fed policy expectations, real-yield calculations, TIPS pricing, and inflation-linked cost-of-living adjustments (Social Security, federal pensions). A hot CPI print can trigger same-day cross-asset repricing of significant magnitude.
MARKET IMPACT
| Market | Direction | Strength | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|
| US Treasuries | negative | high | Yields spike on upside surprises |
| USD | positive | high | Hawkish Fed pricing on hot CPI |
| S&P 500 | negative | high | Discount-rate shock + tightening fears |
| Gold | mixed | medium | Hedge vs. real-yield response cross-cancel |
FAQ
- What is the difference between headline and core CPI?
- Headline includes food and energy; core excludes them to reduce volatility and reveal underlying trend.
- When is CPI released?
- Mid-month, typically the second Tuesday or Wednesday, at 8:30 AM ET.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (May 2026): actual 334 Index 1982-84=100. Prior reading (Apr 2026): 332.4 Index 1982-84=100. Before that (Mar 2026): 330.3 Index 1982-84=100.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with S&P 500 (Bearish S&P 500, r=-0.79) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Monday, August 3, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14:00 | US | ISM Manufacturing PMI | 53.3 | 54 | 54.00 | High | |
| 14:00 | US | ISM Manufacturing Employment | 49.7 | 49.8 | 49.80 | Medium | |
| 14:00 | US | Construction Spending MoM | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.20 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | ISM Manufacturing Prices | 73 | 70 | 70.00 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | ISM Manufacturing New Orders | 56 | 55.4 | 55.40 | Low | |
| Tuesday, August 4, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Balance of Trade | -77.6 | -73 | -72.70 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Exports | 317.7 | 312 | 312.90 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Imports | 395.3 | 385 | 385.35 | Medium | |
| 14:00 | US | Factory Orders MoM | -1.3 | 0.5 | 1.00 | Medium | |
| 14:00 | US | JOLTs Job Quits | 3.065 | 3.05 | 3.16 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | Economic Optimism Index | 45.5 | 47.5 | 47.80 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | JOLTs Job Openings | 7.594 | 7.25 | 7.26 | High | |
| 14:00 | US | Factory Orders ex Transportation | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.95 | Low | |
| Wednesday, August 5, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:15 | US | ADP Employment Change | 98 | 75 | 75.00 | Medium | |
| 14:00 | US | ISM Services Business Activity | 55.4 | 56 | 57.20 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | ISM Services PMI | 54 | 54.2 | 54.15 | High | |
| 14:00 | US | ISM Services Employment | 51.2 | 52 | 53.50 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | ISM Services New Orders | 55.1 | 55.3 | 52.05 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | ISM Services Prices | 67.7 | 66.2 | 66.05 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI | 54 | 54.2 | 54.15 | High | |
| Thursday, August 6, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 09:30 | US | Challenger Job Cuts | 45.849 | 59 | 59.00 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Initial Jobless Claims | 197 | 200 | 200.00 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Jobless Claims 4-Week Average | 202.75 | 198 | 198.00 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Continuing Jobless Claims | 1782 | 1798 | 1798.00 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Unit Labour Costs QoQ | 1.8 | 2.7 | 2.70 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Nonfarm Productivity QoQ | 0.3 | 0.7 | 0.70 | Medium | |