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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS Core Inflation Rate climbed to 338.9 in September 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased October 2026
US Core Inflation Rate climbed to 338.9 in September 2026, released October 2026, up 1.13 from August's 337.77 reading.
Latest Release
338.900000
Actual
—
Consensus
337.770000
Previous
Sigmacast Track Record
Sigmacast track record will appear here once this indicator has been released 3+ times since Sigmanomics began tracking.
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
THE RELEASE
Core Inflation Rate (United States) was reported at 338.90 in October 2026. The reading rose from the previous value of 337.77. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Import Prices MoM (Oct 16) and Export Prices MoM (Oct 16).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
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Core Inflation Rate - US
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About Core Inflation Rate — United States
DEFINITION
The Core Inflation Rate is a key financial indicator that measures the change in prices of goods and services, excluding volatile items such as food and energy. This indicator provides a more accurate representation of overall inflation trends and helps policymakers make informed decisions regarding monetary policy. It is widely used by investors, economists, and central banks to assess the health of an economy and its potential impact on financial markets. A stable and moderate Core Inflation Rate is generally seen as a sign of a healthy economy, while high or rapidly increasing rates can indicate potential risks of inflation.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Inflation prints feed directly into central-bank policy expectations and real-yield calculations, and are among the most rate-sensitive releases on the calendar. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Sep 2026): actual 338.9.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Thursday, October 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:30 | US | Producer Price Index YoY | 6.3 | 5.6 | 5.3 | 5.80 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index | 20.9 | 37.8 | 28.4 | 24.65 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | NY Empire State Manufacturing Index | 25.5 | 7.6 | 10.3 | 17.90 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Core PPI YoY | 5 | 4.8 | 4.4 | 4.70 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Continuing Jobless Claims | 1710 | 1714 | 1710 | 1706.75 | High |
| 12:30 | US | PPI Ex Food, Energy and Trade YoY | 5 | 4.8 | 4.7 | 4.85 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Producer Price Index MoM | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.90 | High |
| 12:30 | US | PPI Ex Food, Energy and Trade MoM | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.40 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Initial Jobless Claims | 199 | 198 | 200 | 193.50 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Producer Price Index | 159.78 | 157.411 | 159.1 | 159.44 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Jobless Claims 4-Week Average | 198.5 | 198.25 | 199 | 197.50 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Core PPI MoM | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.50 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales MoM | 0.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.20 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM | 0.9 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.70 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales Ex Gas/Autos MoM | 0.2 | 1.1 | 0.2 | 0.20 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales YoY | 6.3 | 5.6 | 5.2 | 5.75 | High |
| 14:00 | US | Business Inventories MoM | 0.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.40 | Medium |
| 14:00 | US | Retail Inventories Ex Autos MoM | 0 | 0.8 | 0.1 | 0.05 | Low |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change | 67 | 85 | 76 | 73.00 | Low |
| 15:00 | US | Atlanta Fed GDPNow | 3.6 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 3.60 | Medium |
| 15:30 | US | Atlanta Fed GDPNow | 3.6 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 3.60 | Medium |
| 16:00 | US | EIA Gasoline Stocks Change | 3.518 | 0.382 | -0.5 | 1.51 | Medium |
| 16:00 | US | EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change | -8.557 | -3.186 | -0.3 | -4.43 | Medium |
| 16:00 | US | EIA Distillate Stocks Change | -2.527 | -0.042 | -1.6 | -2.06 | Low |
| Friday, October 16, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Import Prices MoM | 0.7 | 0.8 | 1.30 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Export Prices MoM | 0.6 | 1 | 0.90 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Import Prices YoY | 7 | 7.9 | 8.35 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Export Prices YoY | 8.6 | 9.4 | 9.45 | Low | |
| 13:15 | US | Industrial Production YoY | 1.4 | 1 | 0.80 | Low | |
| 13:15 | US | Capacity Utilization | 76.3 | 76.5 | 76.45 | Low | |
| 13:15 | US | Industrial Production MoM | 0 | 0.4 | 0.35 | Medium | |
| 13:15 | US | Manufacturing Production MoM | -0.3 | 0.3 | 0.25 | Low | |
| 13:15 | US | Manufacturing Production YoY | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.85 | Low | |
| 18:00 | US | Budget Balance | -167 | -29 | -29.00 | Medium | |
| 20:00 | US | Net Long-Term TIC Flows | -27.9 | 75.2 | 75.20 | Medium | |
| Monday, October 19, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 14:00 | US | NAHB Housing Market Index | 32 | 31 | 31.00 | Medium | |
| 15:30 | US | 3-Month Bill Auction | 4.085 | 4.009 | 4.01 | Low | |