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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS Employment Cost - Benefits QoQ fell to 1.0% in Q3 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased July 2026
US Employment Cost - Benefits QoQ fell to 1.0% in Q3 2026, down 0.2% from June's 1.2% reading. The reading missed the 1.1% consensus by 0.1%.
Latest Release
1.000000
Actual
1.100000
Consensus
1.200000
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.1 percentage points
across last 11 releases
Last Call
Jul 2026
Predicted: 1.1
Actual: 1
Error: +0.1
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.50 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.45 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.40 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.35 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | CRYPTO | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Employment Cost - Benefits QoQ (United States) was reported at 1% in July 2026. This missed the market consensus of 1.1% by 0.1%. The reading fell from the previous value of 1.2%. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 0.83%, down from the prior three at 0.9%. In July readings over the past 3 years, Employment Cost - Benefits QoQ has averaged 0.9%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with S&P 500 (Bullish Stocks). A secondary relationship exists with EUR/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish EUR). Over the last 11 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.1%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Fed Musalem Speech (Sep 29) and Fed Williams Speech (Sep 29).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
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Employment Cost - Benefits QoQ - US
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About Employment Cost - Benefits QoQ — United States
DEFINITION
Employment Cost - Benefits QoQ is a financial indicator that measures the change in the cost of employee benefits from one quarter to the next. This includes expenses such as healthcare, retirement plans, and other non-wage benefits provided by employers. It is an important metric for businesses and investors as it reflects the overall cost of labor and can impact profitability and financial performance. A positive change in this indicator indicates an increase in the cost of employee benefits, while a negative change suggests a decrease.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Apr 2026): actual 1 %, consensus 1.1 %. Prior reading (Jan 2026): 1.2 %. Before that (Oct 2025): 0.7 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook diverging from that direction. The 1-month and 3-month horizons disagree, suggesting a mixed signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with S&P 500 (Bullish Stocks, r=0.50) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
Σ
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Monday, September 28, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14:30 | US | Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index | 9.8 | 11.6 | 1 | 5.40 | Medium |
| 15:30 | US | 3-Month Bill Auction | 4.11 | 4.015 | 4.009 | 4.06 | Low |
| Tuesday, September 29, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 13:00 | US | House Price Index | 443.5 | 442.3 | 442.9 | 442.80 | Low |
| 13:00 | US | S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price YoY | 2.5 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.33 | Medium |
| 13:00 | US | S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price MoM | 0 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.23 | Low |
| 13:00 | US | House Price Index YoY | 2.6 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 2.28 | Low |
| 13:00 | US | House Price Index MoM | 0.3 | 0 | 0.1 | 0.07 | Low |
| 14:00 | US | CB Consumer Confidence | 81.9 | 88.6 | 89.2 | 86.58 | Medium |
| 14:00 | US | JOLTs Job Openings | 7.079 | 7.335 | 7.23 | 7.27 | High |
| 14:00 | US | JOLTs Job Quits | 3.066 | 3.089 | 3 | 3.04 | Low |
| 14:30 | US | Dallas Fed Services Revenues Index | -0.9 | 6.6 | 2 | 2.23 | Low |
| 14:30 | US | Dallas Fed Services Index | -1.8 | 4.2 | 1 | 2.03 | Low |
| 20:30 | US | API Crude Oil Stock Change | 1.786 | -1.9 | -2.89 | Medium | |