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Data from U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS Unemployment Rate (U-3) held to 4.1 Percent in July 2026
U.S. Bureau of Labor StatisticsMonthlyReleased August 2026
US Unemployment Rate (U-3) held to 4.1 Percent in July 2026, released August 2026.
Latest Release
4.100000
Actual
—
Consensus
4.100000
Previous
Sigmacast Track Record
Sigmacast track record will appear here once this indicator has been released 3+ times since Sigmanomics began tracking.
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD/CAD | ▼ Inverse | −0.48 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| GOOGL | ▲ Direct | +0.42 | STOCKS | Moves with | → View |
| AUD/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.40 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| USD/CHF | ▼ Inverse | −0.31 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| NZD/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.27 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Unemployment Rate (U-3) (United States) was reported at 4.10 Percent in July 2026. The reading was unchanged from the previous release. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 4.29 Percent, ranging from 4.10 Percent to 4.50 Percent across 10 releases. This is classified as a critical-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 4.13 Percent, down from the prior three at 4.30 Percent. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.12 Percent) is higher than the prior year (σ 0.11 Percent). In August readings over the past 3 years, Unemployment Rate (U-3) has averaged 4.20 Percent.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with USD/CAD (Bearish USD). A secondary relationship exists with GOOGL, positively correlated (Bullish GOOGL).
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate (Sep 16) and Retail Sales MoM (Sep 16).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update August 2026.
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Unemployment Rate (U-3) - US
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About Unemployment Rate (U-3) — United States
DEFINITION
US Unemployment Rate (U-3) for July came in at 4.100000%, down from June’s 4.200000%, marking a continued decline in joblessness. The rate has steadily decreased from May’s 4.3%, indicating ongoing labor market tightening. Markets will watch upcoming payroll data closely amid this downward trend. Updated 8/13/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. Releases in this category are tier-1 market events that frequently produce same-session cross-asset repricing. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Aug 2026): actual 4.1 Percent. Prior reading (Jul 2026): 4.1 Percent. Before that (Jun 2026): 4.2 Percent.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with USD/CAD (Bearish USD, r=-0.48) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
Σ
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Monday, September 14, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15:30 | US | 3-Month Bill Auction | 3.97 | 3.8 | 3.809 | 3.89 | Low |
| Tuesday, September 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | NY Empire State Manufacturing Index | 7.6 | 20.6 | 14.75 | 11.18 | High |
| Wednesday, September 16, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales MoM | -0.6 | 0.8 | 1.00 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM | -0.3 | 0.5 | 0.65 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Import Prices YoY | 5.9 | 6.4 | 6.75 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales Ex Gas/Autos MoM | -0.2 | 0.2 | 0.20 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales YoY | 5 | 4.7 | 6.15 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Export Prices MoM | -1.3 | 0.5 | 0.55 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Import Prices MoM | -0.4 | 0.4 | 0.85 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Export Prices YoY | 8.2 | 8.5 | 8.90 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | Business Inventories MoM | 0 | 0.3 | 0.30 | Medium | |
| 14:00 | US | NAHB Housing Market Index | 35 | 34 | 34.00 | Medium | |
| 14:00 | US | Retail Inventories Ex Autos MoM | 0.7 | -0.5 | 0.7 | 0.70 | Low |
| 18:00 | US | Fed Interest Rate Decision | 3.75 | 4 | 4.00 | High | |