Loading page content
Data from U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS Unemployment Rate (U-3) held to 4.3 Percent in April 2026
U.S. Bureau of Labor StatisticsMonthlyReleased May 2026
US Unemployment Rate (U-3) held to 4.3 Percent in April 2026, released May 2026.
Latest Release
4.300000
Actual
—
Consensus
4.300000
Previous
Sigmacast Track Record
Sigmacast track record will appear here once this indicator has been released 3+ times since Sigmanomics began tracking.
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.74 | INDEX | Bullish S&P 500 | → View |
| MSFT | ▼ Inverse | −0.38 | STOCKS | Bearish MSFT | → View |
| AAPL | ▲ Direct | +0.31 | STOCKS | Bullish AAPL | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.28 | FOREX | Bullish USD | → View |
| GOOGL | ▲ Direct | +0.26 | STOCKS | Bullish GOOGL | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Unemployment Rate (U-3) (United States) was reported at 4.30 Percent in April 2026. The reading was unchanged from the previous release. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 4.35 Percent, ranging from 4.30 Percent to 4.50 Percent across 10 releases. This is classified as a critical-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 4.30 Percent, down from the prior three at 4.37 Percent. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.07 Percent) is lower than the prior year (σ 0.08 Percent). In May readings over the past 3 years, Unemployment Rate (U-3) has averaged 4.17 Percent.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with S&P 500 (Bullish S&P 500). A secondary relationship exists with MSFT, negatively correlated (Bearish MSFT).
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Jun 18) and Initial Jobless Claims (Jun 18).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update May 2026.
SHARE
Unemployment Rate (U-3) - US
Loading chart data...
About Unemployment Rate (U-3) — United States
DEFINITION
The US Unemployment Rate (U-3) held steady at 4.3% in April, matching March's reading of 4.3%. This stability follows a slight dip from February's 4.4%, indicating no change in labor market slack over the past two months. Market focus remains on upcoming employment reports and Federal Reserve signals amid steady jobless levels. Updated 6/11/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. Releases in this category are tier-1 market events that frequently produce same-session cross-asset repricing. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (May 2026): actual 4.3 Percent. Prior reading (Apr 2026): 4.3 Percent. Before that (Mar 2026): 4.3 Percent.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with S&P 500 (Bullish S&P 500, r=0.74) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.