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Data from U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS Unemployment Rate (U-3) climbed to 4.2 Percent in August 2026
U.S. Bureau of Labor StatisticsMonthlyReleased September 2026
US Unemployment Rate (U-3) climbed to 4.2 Percent in August 2026, released September 2026, up 0.1 Percent from July's 4.1 Percent reading.
Latest Release
4.200000
Actual
—
Consensus
4.100000
Previous
Sigmacast Track Record
Sigmacast track record will appear here once this indicator has been released 3+ times since Sigmanomics began tracking.
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
THE RELEASE
Unemployment Rate (U-3) (United States) was reported at 4.20 Percent in August 2026. The reading rose from the previous value of 4.10 Percent. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 4.28 Percent, ranging from 4.10 Percent to 4.50 Percent across 11 releases. This is classified as a critical-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 4.13 Percent, down from the prior three at 4.27 Percent. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.12 Percent) is higher than the prior year (σ 0.11 Percent). In September readings over the past 3 years, Unemployment Rate (U-3) has averaged 4.23 Percent.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with GOOGL (Bullish GOOGL).
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include OPEC Meeting (Nov 1) and ISM Manufacturing Employment (Nov 2).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update September 2026.
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Unemployment Rate (U-3) - US
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About Unemployment Rate (U-3) — United States
DEFINITION
US Unemployment Rate (U-3) rose to 4.200000% in September, up from August’s 4.100000%, marking a slight increase in joblessness. The rate edged higher after holding steady at 4.1% in July and August, signaling a modest labor market softening. Markets will watch upcoming payroll data closely amid this uptick. Updated 10/4/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. Releases in this category are tier-1 market events that frequently produce same-session cross-asset repricing. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Sep 2026): actual 4.2 Percent. Prior reading (Aug 2026): 4.1 Percent. Before that (Jul 2026): 4.1 Percent.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary neutral force in the current projection.
Σ
EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Friday, October 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:30 | US | Employment Cost - Benefits QoQ | 0.9 | 1 | 0.7 | 0.80 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Employment Cost - Wages QoQ | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.75 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Employment Cost Index QoQ | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.80 | Medium |
| 13:45 | US | Chicago PMI | 55.3 | 58.8 | 56.1 | 55.70 | Medium |
| Saturday, October 31, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 15:00 | US | Atlanta Fed GDPNow | 3.3 | 3.4 | 3.2 | 3.37 | Medium |
| Monday, November 2, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 14:00 | US | ISM Manufacturing Prices | 77.9 | 78 | 78.40 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | ISM Manufacturing Employment | 52.7 | 53 | 54.50 | Medium | |
| 14:00 | US | ISM Manufacturing New Orders | 55.3 | 55.4 | 56.05 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | ISM Manufacturing PMI | 54.5 | 54.7 | 55.50 | High | |