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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS Claimant Count Change climbed to 22K in January 2025
FMPMonthlyReleased February 2025
US Claimant Count Change climbed to 22K in January 2025, released February 2025, up 37.1K from December's -15.1K reading. The print exceeded the 10K consensus by 12K.
Latest Release
22.000000
Actual
10.000000
Consensus
-15.100000
Previous
Sigmacast Track Record
Sigmacast track record will appear here once this indicator has been released 3+ times since Sigmanomics began tracking.
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.50 | INDEX | Bullish Stocks | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.45 | FOREX | Bearish EUR | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.40 | FOREX | Bullish USD | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.35 | COMMODITIES | Bearish Gold | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | CRYPTO | Watch | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Claimant Count Change (United States) was reported at 22 thousand in January 2025. This beat the market consensus of 10 thousand by 12 thousand. The reading rose from the previous value of -15 thousand. This is classified as a high-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with S&P 500 (Bullish Stocks). A secondary relationship exists with EUR/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish EUR).
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Jun 18) and Initial Jobless Claims (Jun 18).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update February 2025.
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Claimant Count Change - US
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About Claimant Count Change — United States
DEFINITION
Claimant Count Change is a widely used financial indicator that measures the monthly change in the number of people who are claiming unemployment benefits in a particular country. It is considered a key indicator of the health of the labor market and can provide valuable insights into the overall economic performance of a country. A higher Claimant Count Change may indicate a weakening economy, while a lower change may suggest a growing job market. This indicator is closely monitored by policymakers, investors, and analysts to make informed decisions about economic policies and investments.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. Surprises against consensus typically move rates and currencies on release. Released monthly.
WHAT'S NEXT
This indicator correlates most strongly with S&P 500 (Bullish Stocks, r=0.50) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.